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Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 20164 times)

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Offline mempho

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #330 on: October 08, 2018, 04:13:19 AM »
That's crazy.  Very Opal-esque.  Same general track, too!.

Crazy thing was that Opal almost went Cat 5 very suddenly.  For one advisory just hours from landfall, she hit 150mph sustained, as I recall.

That's a dream storm kind of scenario if you want to get high wind penetration far inland.

Seems like a good time to post this extreme scenario....

Michael is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well end up being a weak Cat 3 at landfall. That is insane.


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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #331 on: October 08, 2018, 06:13:54 AM »
Michael is looking far more organized this morning--and is growing in size, as well.  One has to wonder how strong it can get over the tepid waters of the Gulf.  It won't have a lot of time over water, being pulled rapidly north by the deepening trough that will bring fall to the eastern U.S.  But it may not need much time since it seems to be stronger now than earlier forecast. 

And, unfortunately, the Carolinas look to get hammered again by tropical rains. 





Post Merge: October 08, 2018, 06:20:28 AM
And don't look now, but this morning's GFS has a strong mid latitude storm bringing even colder air by mid month.  If it's to be believed, much of TN may see it's first frost/freeze of the autumn season.  Talk about a pattern flip. 
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 06:20:28 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Beth

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #332 on: October 08, 2018, 09:55:58 AM »
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #333 on: October 08, 2018, 07:40:31 PM »
We finally got pool winterized Saturday after roasting at the zoo on Friday.  This week will be spent cutting back plants that have to go in green house before frost. Not excited by winter coming but I will enjoy some cooler days thatís for sure.  :)


Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #334 on: October 08, 2018, 09:20:39 PM »

Here's hoping we see about 2 months worth of 60's, then the bottom can drop out and the snow can fly just in time for Christmas.
odds of snow flying around here in west tn xmas time... are slim... least in my lifetime i can remember
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #335 on: October 08, 2018, 10:46:50 PM »
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #336 on: October 09, 2018, 12:47:16 AM »
Only one white Christmas in Middle TN since I've been alive. That was in 2010.

2004 was a White Christmas in at least parts of Middle TN.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/Randolph_Lawrence_Transfer.pdf

Randolph and Lawrence counties in AR were transferred to NWS Little Rock. It makes sense geographically as well.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #337 on: October 09, 2018, 10:17:30 AM »
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 10:38:33 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #338 on: October 09, 2018, 01:04:23 PM »
I've noticed it's breezy today with some gusts- I wonder if we're seeing some distant gradient interaction between the approaching trough/autumn cold front, ridge to the east, and Michael in the Gulf.

First real breezy day here in a long time.  As Chuck Mangione put it--it feels so good.

EDIT--Just like this will!

Quote
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

« Last Edit: October 09, 2018, 02:00:59 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #339 on: October 10, 2018, 11:53:27 AM »
Most look to miss out on the rain but there will be a line from southwest to north east that forms and stalls for hours. Looks to be just south and east of me unfortunately. I think it has to do with Michael and the front interacting at that one point.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #340 on: October 10, 2018, 06:39:22 PM »
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it. 
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 07:27:26 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #341 on: October 11, 2018, 04:14:34 AM »
Went out for a short jog and was drenched with sweat by the time I was done.  A deep tropical airmass is definitely being pushed in here ahead of Michael.  Dewpoint is currently 72 with the temperature at 76. 

But this may be the last night the air has a tropical feel to it until next spring.  Either way, I won't know what to do come Thursday evening when temps crash into the 50's after sunset, and drop to 45 by morning.  And dewpoints in the 40s??  We haven't had an airmass that dry since last May. 

Considering we've not had any transition time, this cool snap will be a shock to the system.  Highs in the mid 60's gonna feel a bit chilly.  I'll still take it.
It's 55F here in west TN this morning! Fall has arrived! I'm about to go run!

It arrived too late for the Florida panhandle, unfortunately.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #342 on: October 11, 2018, 04:56:19 AM »
Forecast for the next 7 days continues to cool as models catch on to the strength of the trough developing over the eastern U.S.  Temperatures are now forecast to remain below 70 for the entire period for this area!  Lows the next two nights are expected to be in the LOWER 40's.  What a massive change from what we've been seeing so far this autumn. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #343 on: October 11, 2018, 09:42:35 AM »
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #344 on: October 11, 2018, 10:52:11 AM »
Sergio looks to interact with arctic air in the southern plains for a really decent snow storm. Amarillo TX weather has always fascinated me but not to the point to live there. Sergio should get stalled along a front in western TN early next week and put down 2 to 3 inches of rain with some cool air to boot.

That's really interesting (how a tropical system can come into place in a winter weather scenario). That was the case with Sandy.

The high plains can get some good snow storms/blizzards in October anyway. I agree- fascinating area of the country.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 10:56:53 AM by Thundersnow »

 

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