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Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 9493 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #60 on: September 10, 2018, 06:08:28 PM »
Had occasional downpours today adding up to over a half inch, so we've had about 1.6" for this event.  I think I heard the trees drinking deep this evening. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #61 on: September 13, 2018, 05:19:05 PM »
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Quote
Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday.  However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea.  These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions.  Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation.  The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus.  At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #62 on: September 13, 2018, 08:21:40 PM »
Idk where to put this but its something I just kind of learned.
Have you ever watched the radar and seen yellow rain coming over you and you think its moderate because thats the color for moderate? But it ends up being the hardest rain ever. Why? Well the radars are adjusted at times VCP (volume coverage patterns) and basically its different sensitivities of the radar. Just something kind of interesting to me. I kind of figured it was something like that before when we had heavy rain events and only seemed to have green and yellow on radar vs dark reds and stuff. You can see the vcp above the radars color scale thing although not to sure what numbers mean what really but yeah.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #63 on: September 13, 2018, 08:35:40 PM »
And a glimmer of good news--Isaac looks to actually weaken into a depression, and remain that way as it heads into the Caribbean Sea.  Considering the time of year, and the location of the depression, that's awesome news.  If it degrades further, there may not be anything left to redevelop once the shear weakens.      ::applause::

Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #64 on: September 13, 2018, 09:32:02 PM »
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #65 on: September 14, 2018, 05:20:25 AM »
Not having looked into the pattern over the Caribbean, there must evidently be shear or unfavorable conditions in that area. That area is ordinarily a gas tank for tropical systems this time of year where storms intensify quickly once they pass west of the Leewards/Windwards. Not with this one, it appears.

Isaac now downgraded to a depression this morning. Pretty amazing considering where it's at.

Isaac could've easily become a destructive monster.  Perfect track over tepid waters.  Shear and dry air are the culprit for it's lack of luster.  Or perhaps it's just Someone upstairs cutting us a break.  Either way, I'm grateful.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #66 on: September 14, 2018, 05:55:56 AM »
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
I was gonna ask-- when does "fall" actually start this year?

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #67 on: September 14, 2018, 09:58:49 AM »
Looks like fall isn't coming in until the end of the month...
yeah.  Fall going be delayed...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #68 on: September 14, 2018, 10:21:19 AM »
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #69 on: September 14, 2018, 10:58:52 AM »
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.

Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #70 on: September 14, 2018, 12:38:53 PM »
Just two years ago, we were hitting consistent 90s in late October. After that nonexistent autumn, I am pleasantly surprised to see 70s in September. We had really nice temperatures last fall- even some record lows in October. That was eclipsed by a final shot of 70 degree temperatures during the first week of November. Ironically, that wacky week of 70 degree temperatures is a harbinger of winter down here.
Id have to go back and check, but Im pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #71 on: September 14, 2018, 12:49:12 PM »
You all act like fall is supposed to start in September. Please. This is 21st century Tennessee. Summer will hang on until early November, and then winter will start.
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #72 on: September 14, 2018, 12:52:00 PM »
almost agreed 100 percent but think be December when any true winter stuff comes rolling in...
Wait we are taking about winter stuff?  I thought this was about the amazing period beforehand where we have comfortable temps and a chill in the air for a month or 2 beforehand.

Just looking at the GEFS temps over the next 16 days- after this weekend temps are seasonable and drop to the low 80s with lows beginning to fall into the 50s. Thats about normal to me.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #73 on: September 14, 2018, 01:10:46 PM »
Id have to go back and check, but Im pretty sure we recorded a 90 degree day in November in 2016. That would have to be the latest such occurrence.

I'm thinking your right.  At the least, that was a record warm November, and I know we had 80+ up to Thanksgiving.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Crockett

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Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #74 on: September 14, 2018, 01:14:11 PM »
The older I get, the less I care about epic winter storms and sustained cold during the traditional months. But it just doesn't seem right to have shirt-sleeve weather at Thanksgiving and Christmas, which has been increasingly common in the past decade or so.

 

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