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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 251847 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3480 on: February 13, 2019, 09:41:25 PM »
RGEM at end of run.



Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3481 on: February 14, 2019, 05:35:35 AM »
The Great Snowstorm of 2009 (in the other thread) occurred at the end of the month, still 14 days away, and March has been known to have some big storms, so winter may have something left in the tank.  However, unless it's something great (for me that's 4+ these days), then this winter goes in the trash bin.  So much promise, so little follow through. 
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 05:38:50 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3482 on: February 14, 2019, 06:46:25 AM »
The Great Snowstorm of 2009 (in the other thread) occurred at the end of the month, still 14 days away, and March has been known to have some big storms, so winter may have something left in the tank.  However, unless it's something great (for me that's 4+ these days), then this winter goes in the trash bin.  So much promise, so little follow through.
March 12-13, 1993.
April 4, 1987.
Both huge snow events for Eastern Tennessee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3483 on: February 14, 2019, 06:56:42 AM »
One subtle change noted on the Euro by 2/23 that I've not see at any point before--what appears to be a building ridge on the west coast.  For most of it's run, it has a deep trough out west (like all the previous runs), but by the end of the 0z run, that trough is weakening and moving into the Rockies.  Could it be the beginning of a pattern change, and a trough reemerging in the east?  We'll see, but the PNA does seem to be swinging that way, as well, by month's end. 



Post Merge: February 14, 2019, 07:16:01 AM
6Z GFS definitely shows a pattern change with a ridge pumping up out west, and a deepening trough by 3/2 in the east.  That's way out there though for the GFS, and I don't trust it until I see something similar on the Euro. 

Post Merge: February 14, 2019, 07:39:22 AM
NWS in Cleveland has created a new warning product for high winds. 

Quote
Hold on to your Pooch!...We have an unofficial "Small Dog Warning" Wind Advisory for northern #Ohio and NW #Pennsylvania this evening through Wednesday. Wind gusts 45 to 50 mph! A few trees may be blown down. Scattered power outages possible



Cute.


« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 07:39:23 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3484 on: February 14, 2019, 08:18:45 AM »
0z Euro day 10 still has a weak trough in the west with the cold retreating north of the border. Is it rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic or getting us into a better pattern? Stay tuned.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3485 on: February 14, 2019, 08:21:09 AM »
0z Euro day 10 still has a weak trough in the west with the cold retreating north of the border. Is it rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic or getting us into a better pattern? Stay tuned.
better pattern ? March lol... too late imo...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3486 on: February 14, 2019, 08:33:09 AM »
I love your optimism, mine has eroded. Of course if it happens I will be here cheering it on. The whole winter has lagged, I have been checking in about everyday haven't had nothing to add. This winter has sucked, I will gladly be happy to be surprised but I have my doubts of anything of significants at this point. Maybe it will happen now that I am not sweating it one way or the other. ::popcorn:: ::shrug:: ::blowtorch:: ::rain::

agreed....after the Jan 28th 29th chance busted after so much potential I completely gave up hope for the season...I am not a hopeless optimist , I am a realist, and I know by mid feb your chances of southern snow dwindle big time. Can it happen YES of course, but the odds are very very low.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3487 on: February 14, 2019, 09:04:06 AM »
agreed....after the Jan 28th 29th chance busted after so much potential I completely gave up hope for the season...I am not a hopeless optimist , I am a realist, and I know by mid feb your chances of southern snow dwindle big time. Can it happen YES of course, but the odds are very very low.
Actually the odds aren't as low as you imply for most of Tennessee. It's just to me this year hasn't showed enough signs or threats to me. But we have had big winter storms in my area into the first 7-8 days into march. I usually hold out hope into March it's not as hopeless as you suggest. I just don't know if late season is going to produce, I hope I am wrong this time around and certainly not going to call anyone thinking we might get a snow it can happen.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3488 on: February 14, 2019, 09:14:36 AM »
better pattern ? March lol... too late imo...

I agree, but some are still hanging in there.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3489 on: February 14, 2019, 09:24:53 AM »
I hang in until 3/15, or thereabouts.  After that, I'm ready for the greening of all things. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3490 on: February 14, 2019, 10:20:09 AM »
Weve got pretty good model agreement for 6-9 of rain in the Southern Valley between tomorrow and next Friday. Ill be interested to see the winter climate summary from MRX this year. I have to think we are running over 200% for all three months. Could be closer to 400% for this month if the models are right.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Beth

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3491 on: February 14, 2019, 10:55:38 AM »
I hang in until 3/15, or thereabouts.  After that, I'm ready for the greening of all things.
Yes I am ready by Mid March to start digging in the dirt and getting everything ready for spring!  🌺🌸🌼🌞

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3492 on: February 14, 2019, 11:28:21 AM »
Actually the odds aren't as low as you imply for most of Tennessee. It's just to me this year hasn't showed enough signs or threats to me. But we have had big winter storms in my area into the first 7-8 days into march. I usually hold out hope into March it's not as hopeless as you suggest. I just don't know if late season is going to produce, I hope I am wrong this time around and certainly not going to call anyone thinking we might get a snow it can happen.


I would be interested to see the stats on how many times we have had a good snowfall after Mid Feb....I am sure it would be about once every 6-7 years but that's certainly is not good odds imo.

Going into every winter the past 4 years I hope to get a 6-8 snowstorm, then It changes to I hope I get 6-8 for the year, then it turns into I would like to see one inch on the ground just ONCE this winter.... That's how winter has been in Lewis county TN almost this entire decade...2 good snow years out of 10

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3493 on: February 14, 2019, 11:37:29 AM »
Lets not be selfish on the dates we want snow. I will take snow in March and April if that is when it falls. The idea that we are going to get this great snowfall and it last for 2 weeks and we all rejoy is rare, extremely rare. Late winter has produced some of the largest snowfalls in state history if I am not mistaken. Also, I am pretty sure March has 3 of the top 6/7 snowfalls for Nashville. Many want the climate to change here(not the weather) and that is unlikely to change any time soon. Dec Jan March whatever.... The conditions are usually the same when it snows, so again, lets get over the time of season.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 11:40:12 AM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3494 on: February 14, 2019, 11:57:57 AM »
12Z GFS has plenty of cold still available by 3/1.  And has this. . .



I'm not really looking at the details that far out, but it's obvious the cold in Canada/northern U.S. has not retreated by month's end--and it's still lurking just to our north.  A simple pattern change will bring it here.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2019, 12:03:22 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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