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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 190410 times)

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3465 on: February 13, 2019, 01:37:37 PM »
It's a good time to visit some of the dams around the area.  I'm sure they will be spilling a lot of water over the coming weeks, like they were back in Nov-Dec.  Douglas Lake was almost full earlier in December when it's normally dry in many coves.  I'd say those coves will be filling up again.
TVA has been spilling water at all 3 Ocoee river dams in Polk co pretty much constantly since November. They finally stopped at Parksville this past week, but only to perform maintenance on the spillway.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3466 on: February 13, 2019, 01:50:52 PM »
TVA has been spilling water at all 3 Ocoee river dams in Polk co pretty much constantly since November. They finally stopped at Parksville this past week, but only to perform maintenance on the spillway.

It's worth mentioning here that being below dams when they are spilling is extremely dangerous.  Being directly above them when they are spilling can be as well.  There is an enormous amount of water moving at high speed through those spillways and if you get into it you will not come back out.  We had a tragic, fatal accident in Knoxville last spring where three men in a fishing boat got close and even with their life jackets on lost their lives. 

Other than the big TVA dams any kind of dam can be dangerous in high water conditions like we're going to experience in the near future.  Low-head dams, which are designed to allow high water to overtop them, are sometimes called drowning machines because if you wash over the top of one you're likely to be caught in a vortex and drowned with no way to get out.  Again, this can happen even if you're wearing a life jacket, sometimes even if you are still in your kayak.  Moving water is incredibly powerful and if you are anywhere near a low-head dam you risk getting pulled over and dropped in the vortex.

In water like that a life jacket just gives crews an opportunity to possibly find your body somewhere downstream because it will float.  Sorry for the unpleasant image but with what we're likely to see around all the dams of our area please share this with your families and friends; you may save a life.  I'm terribly concerned that we're going to see tragedies from people who are out to sight see after all the rain and get caught in forces they don't understand.

*For the sake of accuracy I looked up the article (https://www.wbbjtv.com/2018/06/03/man-killed-in-tennessee-river-boating-accident/) and fortunately only 1 of the 3 men in the Fort Loudon Dam accident last year was killed, but it highlights the danger to boats and the people in them near spillways.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 01:55:34 PM by cgauxknox »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3467 on: February 13, 2019, 02:19:55 PM »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3468 on: February 13, 2019, 03:50:31 PM »
Day 10 Euro    ::blowtorch::   ::bangingheadintowall::   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3469 on: February 13, 2019, 04:29:40 PM »
Yes, yes, I know there's several weeks of winter left.

But I really want to stick a fork in this one.

This winter ain't it.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3470 on: February 13, 2019, 04:32:40 PM »
Day 10 Euro    ::blowtorch::   ::bangingheadintowall::
eps pretty much also
Come on severe wx season...

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3471 on: February 13, 2019, 04:40:27 PM »
Yes, yes, I know there's several weeks of winter left.

But I really want to stick a fork in this one.

This winter ain't it.

I've told posters to hang in there, but March snow doesn't count anyway. Looks warm and snowless through end of Feb. Time to consider this winter may be a throw away.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3472 on: February 13, 2019, 05:24:47 PM »
I've told posters to hang in there, but March snow doesn't count anyway. Looks warm and snowless through end of Feb. Time to consider this winter may be a throw away.
Iím not there yet. Still think there is a chance the last week of February into first of March. We have to wait on the effects of the MJO. Itís just now getting there. Gonna be a week or so of lag time. Hopefully we see models pick up on it in the next few days.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3473 on: February 13, 2019, 05:39:46 PM »


Road gave out due to high water in Forrest City AR west of Memphis. It looked like a photoshop at first.

Offline Curt

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Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3474 on: February 13, 2019, 05:55:40 PM »
Iím not there yet. Still think there is a chance the last week of February into first of March. We have to wait on the effects of the MJO. Itís just now getting there. Gonna be a week or so of lag time. Hopefully we see models pick up on it in the next few days.

Iím getting close. I suspect the trough will move east as they usually do. Pattern and SER could not be more opposite than usual expectations given ENSO and MJO. Meh who knows.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2019, 07:55:22 PM by Curt »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3475 on: February 13, 2019, 06:27:15 PM »
Iím not there yet. Still think there is a chance the last week of February into first of March. We have to wait on the effects of the MJO. Itís just now getting there. Gonna be a week or so of lag time. Hopefully we see models pick up on it in the next few days.
I love your optimism, mine has eroded. Of course if it happens I will be here cheering it on. The whole winter has lagged, I have been checking in about everyday haven't had nothing to add. This winter has sucked, I will gladly be happy to be surprised but I have my doubts of anything of significants at this point. Maybe it will happen now that I am not sweating it one way or the other. ::popcorn:: ::shrug:: ::blowtorch:: ::rain::

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3476 on: February 13, 2019, 07:58:54 PM »
Iím getting close. I suspect the trough will move east as they usually do. Pattern and SER could not be more opposite than usual expectations given ENSO and MJO. Meh who knows.
Memphis Express home game-  March 2nd @7pm - in a blizzard.  Book it!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3477 on: February 13, 2019, 08:50:14 PM »
The replies to this tweet from the NWS regarding the FV3 are great. Needless to say, the weather community hates the FV3.

https://www.twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3478 on: February 13, 2019, 09:12:31 PM »
The NAM has a little ice Saturday. GFS has consistently had this also. RGEM looks to be headed that way at the end of its run.


Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3479 on: February 13, 2019, 09:34:23 PM »
I love your optimism, mine has eroded. Of course if it happens I will be here cheering it on. The whole winter has lagged, I have been checking in about everyday haven't had nothing to add. This winter has sucked, I will gladly be happy to be surprised but I have my doubts of anything of significants at this point. Maybe it will happen now that I am not sweating it one way or the other. ::popcorn:: ::shrug:: ::blowtorch:: ::rain::

2020 is ours


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

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