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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 234127 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3330 on: February 11, 2019, 09:23:25 AM »
Likely to be overrunning/ice if anything.  No thanks.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::

that's what I have been feeling for quite a while now....I sense an ice storm before all is said an done, with snow just to our northwest

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3331 on: February 11, 2019, 09:31:34 AM »
No ice.  Give me spring.   Please not another cold March & April.   Anything that is shown on models past 1 day is not gonna happen.  We all can predict the wx better than the models these days.  Our past winters says cold rain maybe some ice.  Next.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3332 on: February 11, 2019, 09:36:17 AM »
Likely to be overrunning/ice if anything.  No thanks.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::

If that's the case, I'll skip it myself.  I've had enough rain, liquid or otherwise.

I guess it depends on our nemesis the southeast ridge.  If it hangs around, eastern areas will probably just see more rain and backside flurries.   Western areas from Memphis to Nashville would have the best shot at any wintry stuff in this pattern (cold pressing against the ridge). 
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Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3333 on: February 11, 2019, 09:43:02 AM »
If that's the case, I'll skip it myself.  I've had enough rain, liquid or otherwise.

I guess it depends on our nemesis the southeast ridge.  If it hangs around, eastern areas will probably just see more rain and backside flurries.   Western areas from Memphis to Nashville would have the best shot at any wintry stuff in this pattern (cold pressing against the ridge).

The SER weakening is one thing, but the depth of the cold air (ANY cold air, for that matter), will likely only be shallow and transient.  Even if the lower levels of the atmosphere are cold enough to support snow, the mid and upper levels more than likely won't be.  For TN to get snow from here to the end of the season, it'll have to be by 1) cold-core ULL or 2) a Miller-A type system with a 1020mb+ parked over Omaha.  That's why an ice event of some sort or fashion is more likely this side of January than not.
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3334 on: February 11, 2019, 09:56:32 AM »
The one thing that looks certain is the Ohio and TN valleys are in for a lot more precipitation.  Weíre caught between the battle of winter and spring, as the cold tries to press one last time against the ridge to the east, and the pattern attempts to transition from eastern ridging to a trough.  That places us right in the cross hairs of one storm after another following the same path.  Outside of the Pacific Northwest and California, the heaviest precipitation amounts in the lower 48 look to be right here over the next 2-3 weeks. 

Post Merge: February 11, 2019, 10:03:59 AM
Not sure how accurate NOAA's 3-4 week outlooks are, but it appears the trough does finally win in the end.  But that puts us into late Feb and early March.  Not the best timing.



If nothing else, we may get a reprieve from all this rain. 
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 10:05:30 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3335 on: February 11, 2019, 10:27:55 AM »
12z gfs  ::wow::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3336 on: February 11, 2019, 10:29:01 AM »
12Z GFS went BOOM at hour 180.  ::whistling::

Likely an I-44 event, but at least we have something to watch temporarily.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3337 on: February 11, 2019, 10:32:44 AM »
Darn too late.  I was  hoping no one would say anything.  Letís just act as if we saw nothing.    ::shaking_finger::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3338 on: February 11, 2019, 10:33:20 AM »
12Z GFS went BOOM at hour 180.  ::whistling::

Likely an I-44 event, but at least we have something to watch temporarily.
boom boom boom ::snowman::

Post Merge: February 11, 2019, 10:35:31 AM
12Z GFS went BOOM at hour 180.  ::whistling::

Likely an I-44 event, but at least we have something to watch temporarily.
ice big time down to 1 20
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 10:35:31 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3339 on: February 11, 2019, 10:36:46 AM »
Euro will shows us reality shortly.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3340 on: February 11, 2019, 10:37:52 AM »
12Z GFS is nice. Too bad it won't happen

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3341 on: February 11, 2019, 10:41:29 AM »
Darn too late.  I was  hoping no one would say anything.  Letís just act as if we saw nothing.    ::shaking_finger::

Good plan.  At least until it gets within 3 days, is my current thinking.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3342 on: February 11, 2019, 10:48:47 AM »
12z GFS is prime example of a Miller A.  Thermals look really good.  Definitely worth watching over the next few days.  #I44orbust
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3343 on: February 11, 2019, 10:49:53 AM »
12z GFS is prime example of a Miller A.  Thermals look really good.  Definitely worth watching over the next few days.  #I44orbust
meant 1 40 or bust ..
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3344 on: February 11, 2019, 10:53:14 AM »
meant 1 40 or bust ..

You know me better than that...
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