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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 135982 times)

StormNine, jeh, Curt, OutsiderLuknIn, Vols1 and 7 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1635 on: January 17, 2019, 08:51:43 PM »
if that low would continue a south east jog through all of Tennessee  then we would all get a little something :)

This is the furthest south the NAM has been thus far. Let’s see if it is a trend!
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Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1636 on: January 17, 2019, 09:12:57 PM »
Weatherbell is pretty amazing.

For the most part the week ending the 31st through the 21st- the average temp is 5 to 7 below normal state wide. Biggest anomalies are in the Great Lakes with some up to 10 below. For the 51 member EPS to come up with that much below normal- there’s obviously a signal.

EPS snowfall mean is 6-10 across the state for the next 45 days. The concurrent control run total for 45 days is around 10 statewide.

Plenty of cold and an active pattern. That's all we can hope for, the rest is up to luck.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1637 on: January 17, 2019, 10:42:10 PM »
The storm next week has all kind of potential. Both the old and new GFS have had hits for parts of the state. The CMC now has a big storm for west Tn.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1638 on: January 18, 2019, 01:00:56 AM »
0z euro. Is a swing n miss for now... on storm next week .. southern stream bit to fast for northern stream  ... it tries to phase around the plateau ... lays 4 inches generally for the plateau regions .... I got my eye on next week ... lots energy still flying everywhere... just can we get the cold stick long enough ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1639 on: January 18, 2019, 02:16:46 AM »
Middle Tennessee does very good the next 10 days on the Euro. East Tennessee gets buried. Over a foot for most.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1640 on: January 18, 2019, 02:44:16 AM »
6z NAM is even further south.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

It gives some of us a nice ~3-4 hour window of decent snow.

Looking at the Ferrier accumulation map.

1-2” line runs from Columbia all the way over into Spencer.

2-3” line straddles I-40

3-5”+ line is across the Highland Rim and northern Plateau.

Best run we have seen yet, but it is just one run...so take that into consideration. But it is a continued south/southeast look.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 02:58:15 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1641 on: January 18, 2019, 05:46:48 AM »
6z NAM is even further south.

(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

It gives some of us a nice ~3-4 hour window of decent snow.

Looking at the Ferrier accumulation map.

1-2” line runs from Columbia all the way over into Spencer.

2-3” line straddles I-40

3-5”+ line is across the Highland Rim and northern Plateau.

Best run we have seen yet, but it is just one run...so take that into consideration. But it is a continued south/southeast look.



Offline joemomma

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1642 on: January 18, 2019, 06:59:00 AM »
How’d the gear work out this past weekend?

The quilts are rated at 20*.  The lowest temps I saw before we turned in were about 35 per my thermometer.  However, I'm pretty sure it got colder at some point.  We had sleet overnight, and then sleet and snow the next morning.  I never got cold, but I was a bit chilled on my backside.  I think my underquilt wasn't hanging right.  It should be noted that I was sick and had some Nyquil before bed, so that could have had an effect on things.  I'm going to do another test in a couple of weeks I think. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1643 on: January 18, 2019, 07:48:01 AM »
Middle Tennessee does very good the next 10 days on the Euro. East Tennessee gets buried. Over a foot for most.

One storm like that, and I will already consider this winter a BIG success.


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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1644 on: January 18, 2019, 07:50:55 AM »
One storm like that, and I will already consider this winter a BIG success.

In my mind if we have ~3-4 “small” snow events (~1”) and then one “big” snow (~3”+), I count the winter as a success.
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Offline ChrisPC

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1645 on: January 18, 2019, 08:02:50 AM »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1646 on: January 18, 2019, 08:08:14 AM »
In my mind if we have ~3-4 “small” snow events (~1”) and then one “big” snow (~3”+), I count the winter as a success.

Agree.  But I haven't seen a foot of snow since moving to TN in 2003, and I'm ready!   ;)
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1647 on: January 18, 2019, 08:13:42 AM »
Agree.  But I haven't seen a foot of snow since moving to TN in 2003, and I'm ready!   ;)

I've lived here 40 years and I've never seen a foot of snow.

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1648 on: January 18, 2019, 08:14:18 AM »
The 0z Euro is a thing of beauty for northeast Tn. Looks to be an interesting 10 days!


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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1649 on: January 18, 2019, 08:14:46 AM »
Agree.  But I haven't seen a foot of snow since moving to TN in 2003, and I'm ready!   ;)

A foot total or a foot from 1 event?

I’ve lived on this earth for 26 years and haven’t experienced a double digit snowfall! (Highest I’ve measured is around 9”).
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