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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 234105 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1500 on: January 15, 2019, 05:06:30 PM »
You can always count on the happy hour run of the GFS.  ::rofl::



Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1501 on: January 15, 2019, 05:11:18 PM »
Hahahaha ďHappy Hour runĒ I like that!
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1502 on: January 15, 2019, 05:26:28 PM »
You can always count on the happy hour run of the GFS.  ::rofl::




^^ If that happens for the third time in two winters while we get nothing, I will start a rage thread. Haven't America's trailerparks seen enough snow by now?

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1503 on: January 15, 2019, 05:34:56 PM »
 GEFS continues to look purty.   ::snowman::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1504 on: January 15, 2019, 07:54:44 PM »
I miss the 90's and early 2000's...I can hardly remember a winter growing up when we didn't see at least 6+ inches.
Currently it has been over 8 years since we had a six inch snow where I am. Here it is The middle of January and I haven't seen the first snowflake or flurry :(. A tiny bit of sleet In November and that's it. lol
Iím the opposite. Outside of the 1993 superstorm, the 90ís and early 2000ís were absolutely terrible for snow here. We started trending back to snowier winters in 2008-2009. Had a good few years, then another poor period from 2011-2013, and now another lull since 2015. Looks to continue through this winter as well. Parts of northern Florida have recorded more snow than Chattanooga in the last 4 years.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 07:56:48 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1505 on: January 15, 2019, 07:57:59 PM »
GEFS continues to look purty.   ::snowman::

Pics  ::pondering::

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1506 on: January 15, 2019, 08:59:44 PM »
Iím the opposite. Outside of the 1993 superstorm, the 90ís and early 2000ís were absolutely terrible for snow here. We started trending back to snowier winters in 2008-2009. Had a good few years, then another poor period from 2011-2013, and now another lull since 2015. Looks to continue through this winter as well. Parts of northern Florida have recorded more snow than Chattanooga in the last 4 years.

very true...chatt gets ripped off a lot!!! I agree with you though...Northern Alabama has gotten hit with good snows several times recently. My uncle lives south of B-Ham and he has recorded 3 different 4 plus inch events in the past 8 years while I have gotten nothing close to that :(. I can live with people north of here getting snow but I do not like it at ALL when places 140 miles south get hit LOL

Post Merge: January 15, 2019, 09:06:17 PM
The way the state of Tennessee is configured and the way storm tracks work across the country the weather can differ greatly especially when it comes to winter weather in Tennessee. I call middle tn the 4 way stop of storm tracks. LOL! Just a suttle difference in storm tracks can make or break certain regions of the state easily. It is rare that you see the entire state do well in a winter storm. It happens and will happen again, but not all the time. In Tennessee one area of the state can do well and the other get shafted just by the type of storm. For example, most Miller A type storms are great for east tn but not so good for anyone west of Nashville. In other type of cutters many times I-40 is a battleground as is the tn-ky border. Let the snow times roll!!!! ::snowman::

Another interesting thing when cold air is already in place and a low tracks along the gulf is that the moisture a lot of times will not make it north of I-40 and we down here along the 412 corridor get slammed (like my last great snowstorm )


Does anybody have or know where to see graphics of that big surprise 2003 snow...that was ALWAYS one of my favorites...Seems like I remember a ULL traveling north north east along I-65 and all along the west side of that low we got a LOT of snow very fast and it was a BUST in the right direction ..we weren't forecast to hardly get much. But once again cold cold ::snowman:: air was already in place
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 09:06:17 PM by gcbama, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Tamlin

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1507 on: January 15, 2019, 10:39:39 PM »
0z GFS has virtually backed off any significant cold and all of the winter precipitation.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1508 on: January 16, 2019, 12:36:31 AM »
The Euro comes in and says don't count out the 20th threat yet. Nice hit for west and middle tn. ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1509 on: January 16, 2019, 05:34:33 AM »
Pics  ::pondering::

The site I frequent isn't pic friendly, but here it is.  Has many of the major models, except Euro.  But easy to use.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Post Merge: January 16, 2019, 06:35:34 AM
This morning's run of the GEFS isn't quite as impressive, but still not awful.  Mean trough is still there, but not as deep, especially toward the end of the run. Mean snowfall has decreased a bit, after increasing with multiple runs. 

This morning's 6Z GFS has multiple rain to snow events that give middle and east TN some accumulations over it's timeframe.  A 2-4" event occurs on 1/24 & again on 1/26.  Robocop says, "What snow?"
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 06:39:41 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1510 on: January 16, 2019, 08:42:15 AM »
The site I frequent isn't pic friendly, but here it is.  Has many of the major models, except Euro.  But easy to use.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Post Merge: January 16, 2019, 06:35:34 AM
This morning's run of the GEFS isn't quite as impressive, but still not awful.  Mean trough is still there, but not as deep, especially toward the end of the run. Mean snowfall has decreased a bit, after increasing with multiple runs. 

This morning's 6Z GFS has multiple rain to snow events that give middle and east TN some accumulations over it's timeframe.  A 2-4" event occurs on 1/24 & again on 1/26.  Robocop says, "What snow?"

Overnight suites, especially the 0z Euro as Snowman pointed out, were generally a step in the right direction. Stronger dig, southern trend, snowpack ingest into model output...west TN seems clearly in the game. If best case scenario verifies, we may need to bookmark this storm as it would be a great example of where a lack of phase works in our favor.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1511 on: January 16, 2019, 08:55:56 AM »
The site I frequent isn't pic friendly, but here it is.  Has many of the major models, except Euro.  But easy to use.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Post Merge: January 16, 2019, 06:35:34 AM
This morning's run of the GEFS isn't quite as impressive, but still not awful.  Mean trough is still there, but not as deep, especially toward the end of the run. Mean snowfall has decreased a bit, after increasing with multiple runs. 

This morning's 6Z GFS has multiple rain to snow events that give middle and east TN some accumulations over it's timeframe.  A 2-4" event occurs on 1/24 & again on 1/26.  Robocop says, "What snow?"
to many cutters... cutting about right over us or very near... never going workout for us like that... basically some cold chasing moisture... I am ready for a big apps runner... got my out for one... just not seeing it in this pattern... sorry
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1512 on: January 16, 2019, 09:11:30 AM »
to many cutters... cutting about right over us or very near... never going workout for us like that... basically some cold chasing moisture... I am ready for a big apps runner... got my out for one... just not seeing it in this pattern... sorry

Agreed way to many negatives for me to entertain the thought that we are in the game for good snow this weekend...Strange things happen but it is not something I am even really focusing on. Cold air chasing the moisture is never a recipe for good snows

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1513 on: January 16, 2019, 09:17:07 AM »
Agreed way to many negatives for me to entertain the thought that we are in the game for good snow this weekend...Strange things happen but it is not something I am even really focusing on. Cold air chasing the moisture is never a recipe for good snows
spot on...hate  to rant and sound discouraged... I really do...but I love weather... just one many hobbies I got... plus sports n working out... it gets old see this pattern evolve... o don't worry... we will be getting a negative nao and mjo will going to favorable phase. by end march... book it... then there goes my severe weather season to the crapper... go figure >:D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1514 on: January 16, 2019, 09:25:22 AM »
Seriously come on.  The pattern has changed and still changing.  Cold air is here and staying near us.  Just because a model does not show a snow in your backyard does not mean that you wonít see any snow.  The ingredients are in place and getting better.  Quit being so darn negative.  If itís snow it snows.  If itís cold & dry who cares.  At least we have a chance.  That is enough for me.  So please stop finding every stinking negative.  If we get to march and no snow then complain all you want then.  Makes for a miserable chat and life.

 

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