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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 223753 times)

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Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1260 on: January 12, 2019, 02:12:07 AM »
The pattern change towards winter weather looks imminent. Tonight's 0Z FV3-GFS has several chances for snow with major cold through out the entire run.

Jan-19


Jan-23


Jan-25

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1261 on: January 12, 2019, 05:42:10 AM »
Looks like the cold we've been hearing about and waiting for is finally making a move toward us in the long range.  Now, if we can just keep the active storm track going along with it, we'll be in business. 

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 05:57:11 AM
06Z GFS starts the Polar express on 1/21.   Successive cold shots continue until 1/26, when some true Arctic air comes down on top of us.  If we could get a snowpack down, below zero temps would be likely.  V3 of the GFS puts significant snow on the ground in parts of west/middle TN with the initial cold shot on 1/20.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 06:05:01 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1262 on: January 12, 2019, 07:35:49 AM »
Looks like the cold we've been hearing about and waiting for is finally making a move toward us in the long range.  Now, if we can just keep the active storm track going along with it, we'll be in business. 

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 05:57:11 AM
06Z GFS starts the Polar express on 1/21.   Successive cold shots continue until 1/26, when some true Arctic air comes down on top of us.  If we could get a snowpack down, below zero temps would be likely.  V3 of the GFS puts significant snow on the ground in parts of west/middle TN with the initial cold shot on 1/20.
mjo appears to heading in more favorable phases also... 7 8 1.. stormy phases ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1263 on: January 12, 2019, 07:55:28 AM »
Really loving how Jan 18-31 is setting up!  ::fingerscrossed:: :) :) :)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1264 on: January 12, 2019, 08:00:03 AM »
Really loving how Jan 18-31 is setting up!  ::fingerscrossed:: :) :) :)
yeah. ... 2 major threats in that time frame at least... both have potential to be big dogs also ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1265 on: January 12, 2019, 09:56:42 AM »
So far I have 10.5" total with light snow continuing.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1266 on: January 12, 2019, 10:59:00 AM »
12zgfs continues with the artic blast coming... ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 11:01:09 AM
edit.  12z gfs has a monster winter storm just to our southeast   . Atlanta gets blasted with nearly 10 inches snow.... right were we want it for now... northwest trend baby ::coffee::
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 11:01:09 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1267 on: January 12, 2019, 11:51:01 AM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

This is an overall pretty good look.  Would be even better with a Greenland Block (-NAO) but we have rocked a good pattern without it.   

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1268 on: January 12, 2019, 12:08:01 PM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

This is an overall pretty good look.  Would be even better with a Greenland Block (-NAO) but we have rocked a good pattern without it.
appears a net nao be later month ... ensemble supports it
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1269 on: January 12, 2019, 12:10:10 PM »
12zgfs continues with the artic blast coming... ::cold:: ::cold:: ::cold::

Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 11:01:09 AM
edit.  12z gfs has a monster winter storm just to our southeast   . Atlanta gets blasted with nearly 10 inches snow.... right were we want it for now... northwest trend baby ::coffee::

Per weatherbell- Atlanta only has a dusting. Tennessee looks pretty good on that run but itís still more than a week out. What else do I like on the 12z GFS? That little ole Brownsville TX snowstorm. Love it when tropical Texas sees snow. Thatís means cold means business.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1270 on: January 12, 2019, 12:25:06 PM »
Per weatherbell- Atlanta only has a dusting. Tennessee looks pretty good on that run but itís still more than a week out. What else do I like on the 12z GFS? That little ole Brownsville TX snowstorm. Love it when tropical Texas sees snow. Thatís means cold means business.
love see a nw gulf low coming out in this pattern ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1271 on: January 12, 2019, 12:50:37 PM »
12z Euro looks on board also for next weekend ::snowman:: Heavy Sleet and Snow.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1272 on: January 12, 2019, 01:01:17 PM »
12z Euro looks on board also for next weekend ::snowman:: Heavy Sleet and Snow.
Wow, got that right!  Looks to be a nearly statewide event.  Hope this hold through the week!


Post Merge: January 12, 2019, 01:12:50 PM
From the progressing of the storm, it starts as rain, then Arctic air begins to undercut the moisture as the system develops.  Rain changes to freezing rain, sleet, then heavy snow.  Temps drop from the 40's on Saturday into the teens by Sunday morning.  This would make for an epic system, and it falls on the weekend.  Perfect.   ::guitar::
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 01:12:50 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1273 on: January 12, 2019, 01:22:41 PM »
Sidebar, but what is it about people and driving in snow?
People love to go on an ego trip about how they can drive in snow and mock people who canít. Iíve never understood that.

I donít care who you are, once you get snow packed on a road and it turns into a slushy ice, ainít nobody going to be able to drive well on it.

Iím bringing this up because I was looking at Twitter last night and people were going on and on about St Louis being in a standstill.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1274 on: January 12, 2019, 01:25:32 PM »
12z euro.... MOTHER GOD
Come on severe wx season...

 

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