* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 32138 times)

Crockett and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,988
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1871
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #570 on: December 05, 2018, 10:02:11 PM »
At hour 60 I have a temp/DP spread of 32/25

At hour 66 the temp jumps to 38 and DP goes to 29

At hour 72, I assume wetbulbing takes hold as our temp plummets  to 34 and DP climbs to 32


If that was to happen I would throw my phone through the living room TV.

The radical temp jump is even higher for areas of eastern KY. Some jump 10 degrees in that 6 hour window. Miami FL goes up 11 and one location in Cuba rises 18 degrees from 12z Sunday to 18z Sunday!
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 10:08:46 PM by Charles L. »
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,242
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #571 on: December 05, 2018, 10:07:56 PM »
Sigh, better have plenty of phones available and TV's ::lookaround::


Offline BALLPARK

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 709
  • Location: BENTON KY
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 125
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #572 on: December 05, 2018, 10:19:02 PM »
What your take on the GFS 00 and CMC 00 Charles?

Offline Michael

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 490
  • Location: Russellville, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #573 on: December 05, 2018, 10:28:04 PM »
The GFS has locked on a solution for a solid week and isnít budging. Iíve never seen it hold so steady for so many runs. It has varied very slightly over the past 5 days or so. Unbelievable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,247
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1017
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #574 on: December 06, 2018, 05:37:07 AM »
GFS V3 still holds out hope for north middle TN over to eastern TN from Knoxville east.  Southeast KY wins. Tri-Cities scores, but I don't want to talk about my close neighbor, western NC.    ::bangingheadintowall::

Most of the snow falls with the secondary system still being showing by the GFS.  With the first system, much of what falls is liquid, but it appears a quick switchover to heavy, wet snow is still possible for parts of eastern areas (east of Knox).  Sunday will be interesting.  At least I'll be home and can check my temperature every 5 minutes.   ::rofl::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline pirates1

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Spring Hill Williamson county
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #575 on: December 06, 2018, 05:57:00 AM »
Should the translation be donít hold out on that three day weekend (Williamson County)?

Offline Michael

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 490
  • Location: Russellville, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #576 on: December 06, 2018, 06:08:49 AM »
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,948
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 511
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #577 on: December 06, 2018, 07:01:30 AM »
Latest Euro and GFS have cut way back on snow for northern Arkansas.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,247
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1017
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #578 on: December 06, 2018, 07:08:01 AM »
The latest Canadian, Euro and NAM all showing at least 6Ē+ IMBY. Euro and Canadian showing about 10-12Ē.

GFS only showing 1-2Ē. I think Iím leaning towards the GFS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think this will be a nowcasting situation on Sunday.  Many areas could suddenly switch to heavy snow and it may stay as snow.  So close--and east TN has so many "micro-climates" that come into play with all the valleys, ridges and mountains.

NAM shows most of the east TN Valley in the upper 30's Sunday morning, but dropping slowly during the day as a northeast wind kicks in.  Even Knoxville ends the day slightly below freezing.   Tri-Cities drops from 37 to the upper 20's fairly quickly during the day.  What will be falling?  Sleet, freezing rain, snow?  All the above?  Will it switch to snow before we even get down to freezing?  Going to be a fun day to watch, whatever happens.  Just hope by Monday most here on the board have a reason to celebrate. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,988
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1871
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #579 on: December 06, 2018, 07:12:01 AM »
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,247
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1017
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #580 on: December 06, 2018, 07:17:28 AM »
To avoid confusion, do you all mind to post discussions about the upcoming threat in the thread I created this morning? Thanks!

I'm so wound up over a possible snow, I may start posting in the summer thread, accidently.   ;D
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,192
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 93
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #581 on: December 07, 2018, 10:21:50 AM »
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::

Offline Michael

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 490
  • Location: Russellville, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #582 on: December 07, 2018, 10:23:35 AM »
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
I havenít even been looking past Monday lol. I need to look at that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Online BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,365
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1207
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #583 on: December 07, 2018, 11:07:14 AM »
That bowling bowl that has been showing up at the end of the last few Euro runs have me....interested.  ::pondering::
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 913
  • Location: Nashville/Chattanooga
  • EPSC Inspector/Geologist
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #584 on: December 07, 2018, 07:04:56 PM »
yeah. Me too... now since I looked at euro longer range .... like see center the slp 100
Miles further south... but holy Jesus Batman... what system...

Post Merge: December 07, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Wow. Euro sure going be extremely active late next week  ::coffee::

I thought we were supposes to  ::blowtorch:: for a while after this weekend's system?

 

* Recent Posts

Advertisement