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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 15650 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #120 on: October 23, 2018, 04:55:41 PM »
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.

I mean how do you explain “here’s my model and it has a high bust potential”. Maybe you need a new model?

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #121 on: October 23, 2018, 05:11:01 PM »
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #122 on: October 25, 2018, 08:15:29 AM »
I mean how do you explain “here’s my model and it has a high bust potential”. Maybe you need a new model?

Lol, you can't explain it. His theory is just that, an unconfirmed theory.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #123 on: October 25, 2018, 08:37:22 AM »
his one better winter experts out there ...


Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #124 on: October 26, 2018, 06:26:38 AM »
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know.

Yes some forecasters just broad brush El Niño. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #125 on: October 26, 2018, 09:41:46 AM »
Yes some forecasters just broad brush El Niño. Oh it means a warmer than average winter. Each one is different and a lot of factors play into the reality of what will happen.


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Let's leave the CPC out of this.  >:D >:D

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #126 on: October 26, 2018, 01:48:46 PM »
I like our probability of a wetter than average winter. I will take the wet weather over the unusually cold and dry December we had last year.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #127 on: October 26, 2018, 03:53:15 PM »
Right now I would say I think Jan-Feb is our best shot at major winter weather events. Not much of a prediction here, just don't see November bringing much, it rarely does. December can bring the goods but more times than not it doesn't. Hopefully we can cash in on a few major winter storms. Maybe Jan and Feb will produce. No matter what looking forward to winter, would love for it to be a active one. It's fun following even when we barely miss if it's a active winter, especially if we have a few hits along the way. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 07:21:02 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #128 on: October 26, 2018, 10:12:17 PM »
Winter here is a coin toss, the entire way through. Any given year imo is as good as another here. The season as a whole never makes Winter here, its the random event that does. Ill chase and get interested when it shows up on the global models. Climate wins every time


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #129 on: October 26, 2018, 10:56:59 PM »
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #130 on: October 26, 2018, 11:53:46 PM »
Are we expecting a Moderate El Nino?

NAO is trending +
correct.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #131 on: October 27, 2018, 06:13:41 AM »
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

Quote
2013   0.35  -0.45  -1.61   0.69   0.57   0.52   0.67   0.97   0.24  -1.28   0.90   0.95
2014   0.29   1.34   0.80   0.31  -0.92  -0.97   0.18  -1.68   1.62  -1.27   0.68   1.86
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65   0.44   1.74   2.24
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 01:33:29 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #132 on: October 27, 2018, 09:09:27 AM »
I viewed NOAA's forecast yesterday and they outlined the trend from the current negative to neutral by early November.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #133 on: October 28, 2018, 11:00:18 AM »













Temperature Breakdown:

December
Bowling Green KY: +3.0F
Chattanooga: +2.5F
Knoxville: +2.9F
Memphis: +2.5F
Nashville: +2.9F

January
Bowling Green KY: -1.5F
Chattanooga: -1.9F
Knoxville: -1.5F
Memphis: -2.0F
Nashville: -1.4F

February
Bowling Green KY: -5.0F
Chattanooga: -5.5F
Knoxville: -5.0F
Memphis: -5.0F
Nashville: -5.0F


Post Merge: October 28, 2018, 11:19:06 AM
I forgot the best part (unless you are in Idaho or the Pacific Northwest).



« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 11:19:07 AM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #134 on: November 02, 2018, 02:04:01 PM »
The NAO has been in mostly positive territory since late 2017 and has only recently dipped briefly negative.  While a -NAO helps to lock cold into our area, it's not the only driver for cold here.  In the recent colder winters, the NAO has remained neutral to positive, with only brief stints in negative territory, and those mostly occurred in our cold springs or during the summer months.  Why that is I don't know, but I'm relying on the NAO for NADA.

Below is the mean NAO index for 2013-15.  The only recent good winter where a -NAO locked in and drove the winter pattern was 09-10.  Since then, the NAO has been more cozy in positive territory during our winter months.

you can thank the negative EPO for the cold winters of these years despite the positive NAO. that would be the big warm blob that's still in place and incredibly persistent in the gulf of Alaska.


JB's updated winter maps with primary analogs of 2002-03 and 2009-10.



 

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