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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 265242 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #105 on: October 20, 2018, 11:10:20 AM »
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #106 on: October 20, 2018, 01:53:11 PM »
It will be interesting to see how November unfolds.  About every cold winter we've had in recent memory has had a cold November.

With our analogs for the upcoming year, there is no strong signal either way for November.  Some were cool to cold and others like 1965 and 2009 were torchy.

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event. 
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #107 on: October 21, 2018, 07:27:52 AM »

Usually, the stronger signal for weak to moderate modoki E-Nino's is for a warmer than normal December and a colder than normal Late-January and February.   

Post Merge: October 20, 2018, 02:05:20 PM
The best analogs for this upcoming winter are:
1957-58
1963-64
1965-66
1968-69
1986-87
2002-03
2006-07
2009-10 

These are weak to moderate west-based aka modoki El-Nino events (2006-07 was a bit more central based versus west-based)  that came after either a cold neutral or la-nina event.

Not liking that 06-07.  I just remember a drought developing that lasted well into 07.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JHart

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #108 on: October 21, 2018, 07:40:24 AM »
Thermometer next to the house read 32.2F at 7:00 AM while the remote thermometer about 100 feet away read 29F.  There was a decent frost, considering the warm ground.  Welcome, Fall!
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #109 on: October 21, 2018, 08:44:05 AM »
We've gotten some good snows out of 2002-03 and 2009-10.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 06:26:09 PM by schneitzeit »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #110 on: October 21, 2018, 04:51:13 PM »
yeah, and the climate change dont stop or slow down...odds of winning the owerball will become better... :D

History would suggest climate changing is the norm, so I doubt it's going to stop.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #111 on: October 21, 2018, 06:20:43 PM »
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #112 on: October 21, 2018, 07:08:58 PM »
With the talk of a Moderate possibility Moderate-Borderline Strong El-Nino this year it should be noted that we can go fairly strong on El-Nino's and still have a solid winter, we just can't go to the super level like 97-98 or 2015-16.   

1957-58, 1965-66, 2002-03, and 2009-10 were all on the Moderate-Strong cusp (around +1.3C to +1.6C) and I would be happy with each of those winters. There isn't anything that suggests that we will rush past +1.5C this winter. As far as strength goes as long as we are not hitting at or around the 2.0C or greater range then we are okay. 

One thing that I could see develop with a Moderate or Moderate to Borderline Strong El-Nino is the possibility of a severe weather/tornado threat sometime in December.  1957, 1987, and 2002 all had a severe threat somewhere around or just to the west of our area.  It wouldn't be too surprising to see of these especially with any pattern changing system that could take us to a colder pattern later on.
did I hear the word tornado threat... dear god Someone pinch me... I must be dreaming ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #113 on: October 22, 2018, 07:00:19 PM »
Hackuweather winter forecast.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208


Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #114 on: October 23, 2018, 08:12:00 AM »
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #115 on: October 23, 2018, 08:20:22 AM »
Judah has some good theories, but he's missed the last two winters, overall.  His "snowy Siberia (in October) = a cold & snowy eastern U.S." hypothesis didn't do so well, and I think he is still learning (like the rest of us) that a strong -AO doesn't always mean it gets cold and stormy here. 
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 08:22:04 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Winter 2018-19
« Reply #116 on: October 23, 2018, 10:52:26 AM »
Judah Cohen.  Calling for a mild winter for us overall... his one better winter experts out there ...


https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

His model is generated with heavy weight in early season snowcover in Eurasia in association with a negative AO being predominant. He even indicates there are weakness in his theory ie last 2 winters had high early season snowcover and ended up as well know- not well below normal temps overall. He actually is skeptical of his model this year since El Niño is central based vs eastern based- which he says may change the way he ultimately weighs this winter. It’s a good read and much more in depth than just saying “predicting a mild winter”.

Edit- here is Judah Cohen’s conclusion in his winter model forecast.

“In conclusion, the relatively slow advance of Eurasian snow cover, the current lack of high latitude blocking and a general El Niño favor overall relatively mild winter temperatures for the Eastern US.  However I do see high bust potential for this forecast.  Central Pacific rather than an Eastern Pacific El Niño may favor a colder winter than represented in the model.  Elevated North Pacific SSTs may contribute to a cold Eastern US.  In addition future sea ice anomalies and high latitude blocking may eventually contribute to a cold winter.  Also snow cover has been relatively extensive this fall across Canada.  If this were to persist, it could contribute to cold temperatures in the Eastern US.  None of these factors are properly represented in the model and could be dominant on the winter atmospheric circulation in particular across North America, more so than low October Siberian snow cover extent.”
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 12:32:30 PM by Curt »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #117 on: October 23, 2018, 04:29:42 PM »
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #118 on: October 23, 2018, 04:55:41 PM »
Mr. Cohen has taken a bit of a fall from grace the last few years. He was all the talk a few years ago, then disaster.

I mean how do you explain “here’s my model and it has a high bust potential”. Maybe you need a new model?

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #119 on: October 23, 2018, 05:11:01 PM »
In the 80's, El Nino was the end all when it came to predicting winter weather.  El Nino guaranteed warm weather.  Then we learned there are different types of El Ninos.  Then it was the NAO/AO.  If they go negative, harsh winter weather is guaranteed.  Then we learned there is an east based NAO, and a west based NAO.  Then it was sudden stratospheric warming.  Then it was snow in Siberia.  Who knows what the next thing will be, but the lesson to be learned is we never stop learning. The more we learn, the more we realize we don't know. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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