* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 70471 times)

RABBITT040, Clint, ChrisPC, Dyersburg Weather, msexton, Bray, cliftown04, TheNatural (+ 1 Hidden) and 12 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Drifter49

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,247
  • Location: Paris Tn.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #45 on: August 22, 2018, 10:41:36 PM »
I predict four "cliff diving" emojis will be typed on January 15th, 2019 after a major league bust. You heard it here first.

Seems legit to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,130
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 97
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #46 on: August 24, 2018, 01:05:57 PM »
The big one will eventually happen.  Let hope this winter is it!  ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 932
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 745
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #47 on: August 24, 2018, 01:28:37 PM »
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D

Offline Drifter49

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,247
  • Location: Paris Tn.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #48 on: August 24, 2018, 01:29:54 PM »
Snow in Tennessee is nothing like sex.

Anyone is impressed by four inches. >:D

No comment. I will save that for chat lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,082
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1496
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #49 on: August 25, 2018, 06:20:22 PM »
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!

Offline Drifter49

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,247
  • Location: Paris Tn.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #50 on: August 25, 2018, 06:23:41 PM »
The SNOWMAN says get ready for  ::cold:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::!!!! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: Fear the NW Trend!!!! LOL!!!!

Iím ready, but things wonít be complete until Mr Wonderful is on board


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,703
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #51 on: September 21, 2018, 11:06:09 AM »
A few more pieces of the puzzle for winter...

- ENSO: Weak El Nino or neutral positive with warmest water in the central pacific vs eastern which is called Modoki

- PDO: most likely going to be positive

-QBO: negative and from the east but weakening in late winter. Leads to a more blocky pattern

-Solar: reaching min over the next year if not now

All of these argue for some if not more than not below normal temps and increased winter precip chances at some point.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,028
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1938
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #52 on: September 22, 2018, 06:36:05 AM »
and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.  ::pondering::

Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,413
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1107
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #53 on: September 22, 2018, 06:38:59 AM »
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM
Come to Gallatin. I almost run into one on the daily. I think the spiders do it on purpose for the kicks and giggles.


It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere. 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,517
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1319
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #54 on: September 22, 2018, 09:10:01 AM »
Growing up, I heard my grandmother mention several times that the higher the spiders build their webs, the worse the winter will be.  Like most folklore, I don't know if there's anything to that, but I'm seeing spiders build their webs higher than I've ever seen them before.  They are hanging 20-30 feet off the ground between huge trees.  It's pretty creepy looking up to see a huge spider suspended against the blue sky above.  Makes the woods around the house feel like a movie set for a Halloween horror flick.  Anyway, I've never observed that since moving here, and I've not been accidently walking through webs every morning, which is usually the case each fall.   

(Whoops...accidently deleted while trying to add a post).   ::coffee::


Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
Pulled this from Chris Bailey's site. . .Early October looks cool.

http://kyweathercenter.com/?attachment_id=31364

Post Merge: September 22, 2018, 06:44:11 AM

It's the worse--because you don't know if the spider is crawling on your body somewhere.
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,413
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1107
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #55 on: September 22, 2018, 02:31:05 PM »
proably building them higher to prepare for the floods thatís coming later ... lol

Could be....or the snowdrifts.   ::evillaugh::

« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 02:32:41 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 932
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 745
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #56 on: September 22, 2018, 03:37:44 PM »
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,240
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 96
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #57 on: September 22, 2018, 03:44:18 PM »
Models agree on first U.S. winter storm of the season to hit MT, ND, & MN on Oct. 1.

Winter Storm A-Aron

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,721
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #58 on: September 22, 2018, 04:56:43 PM »
It is probably too early but I won't have a lot of free time in Oct-early December so I will go ahead and post my thoughts and way too early prediction for the winter now.

The major factors will be:

- Weak to Moderate West-Based aka Modoki El-Nino.  I am thinking similar in the strength to 2006-07 but unlike 2006-07 this will likely be a Central Pacific type of El-Nino.  These tend to be better for us in the Eastern USA.

+ PDO which tends to lead to riding in the Western USA

The QBO trend that Curt described

- An active subtropical jet which we have seen already.  San Antonio now has their wettest September on record.   

The pattern we will start to head into in the coming weeks is likely a sign of what is to come for much of the winter.  There will be relaxation periods just like we had in 2009-10 and 2014-15 but I have reason to believe we are in for a very solid winter for the Southern and Northeastern USA. 

Color Map:
Orange: Above Normal +1 to +3 temperature departure
Red: Much Above Normal Greater than +3

Blue: Below Normal -1 to -3 temperature departure
Dark Blue: Much Below Greater than -3




I will go with climatology and say that late-November and December will be a relaxation between a colder than normal October-early November and what follows.  As long as we avoid a strongly +NAO or +AO then I will think that our area will finish close to average temperature wise and may find a way to at least sneak in a winter event.

Chattanogga: +1.0
Memphis: +0.8
Nashville: +1.0
Tri-Cities: +1.5 

 

I think here is where the +PDO and favorable Pacific conditions will overall lead to paydirt. With potential blocking in the Northwest and SE Canada and into Greenland that will allow for winter air to pour into our area and linger starting in January. The teardrop shape is due to the potential for the ridges to intrude at times in the Northern Plains.  An active subtropical jet should also help temperatures down quite a bit in the southern USA by way of precipitation and cloudcover.

Chattanogga: -3.1
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -2.5
Tri-Cities: -2.5



Another day and another cold February prediction.  I thankfully didn't predict a cold one on 2017, but the 2018 and 2016 calls were major busts.  Our last two Modoki El-Nino's (2010 and 2015) were solidly below average in the temperature category.  As long as the Pacific cooperates we may not even need a -NAO/AO as a strong +PNA may help in assuming a Warm to Hot West and Cold East pattern.  Will this one bust or will this one verify as 2010 and 2015 did?  We will have to wait and see.  I do think there is a strong potential for at least a Top 10 Warmest February on record in the Pacific Northwest. 

Chattanogga: -5.0
Memphis: -3.5
Nashville: -4.0
Tri-Cities: -4.5

Precipitation:



Typically in weaker El-Nino events the subtropcial jet is suppressed a bit further south.  With the potential of some potent cold air masses I will agree with that decision and go with a drier than normal winter for our area.  Remember that if much of our precip is snow we will likely up drier than normal as 1 inch of snow comes to only 0.10 of an inch of rain and it could be as low as 15:1 or even 20:1 in really cold airmasses. 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 07:33:09 PM by StormNine »

Online Clint

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 186
  • Location: Olive Branch, Ms.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 288
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #59 on: September 22, 2018, 05:43:33 PM »
StormNine, thanks for posting your thoughts for this upcoming Winter... but I'm curious, you have Memphis at +3.0 for January temps. Would that be a typo?

 

* Recent Posts

Winter 2018-19
by JayCee
[Today at 05:34:33 AM]
GOAT Snowstorm
by bellatrixr
[Today at 05:26:38 AM]
12/12/2018 East TN Earthquake
by Thundersnow
[Yesterday at 10:31:32 PM]
My You Tube Weather Video about Jackson, TN`s Climate Summary & Forecast !
by Mr. William E. Brantley
[Yesterday at 03:13:21 AM]

Advertisement