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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 7001 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2018, 09:29:55 AM »
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter.
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JHart

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2018, 01:38:26 PM »
yeah... and if s  and but s  were candy and nuts... everyday would be christmas too,,, ::)
Christmas in July just ended on QVC.  We got plenty of candy, nuts, and Christmas out here. ::guitar::
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2018, 09:48:08 AM »
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:


October

November

December

January

Feb

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2018, 10:27:44 AM »
Snowdog asking about where things might be headed into fall- Here is the latest Euro seasonals at 500mb:

Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2018, 01:07:32 PM »
Yeah, that looks nice. When did they start letting Bastardi input into the Euro seasonal model? Lol.

He'll have a field day with those, for sure. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2018, 01:51:07 PM »
Here is what Weatherbell's Pioneer Model says:


Here is Bastardi's personal maps:



His Analogs:

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2018, 02:17:06 PM »
5F below normal for the winter months?  Wow.  That's pretty extreme.  And above normal snowfall centered right over the southeast U.S.  It's nice to dream about such things, anyway . . .
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2018, 02:22:47 PM »
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::
b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::
c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM »
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2018, 04:40:09 PM »
Regarding Bastardi's map...

a) How does a place that gets zero annual snow get 167% of their annual?  ::pondering::

Answer: Tallahassee get 1.67 flakes instead of 1

b) Mundie moves to Huntsville and gets in the bullseye...this is bs.  ::rant::

Even though the Nashville snow dome has collapsed, Mundie will bring “new” luck to B’ham which had a record 8 year snow drought not that long ago.


c) It's August, and Clarksville and Dyer are already rooting for the NW trend.  ::bagoverhead::

I-44 FTW


Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #25 on: August 10, 2018, 10:26:07 AM »
Ole Joe has had some pretty big busts over the last several years.  While he is good at deciphering the pattern based on teleconnection forecasts, sometimes they don't always behave as predicted--like last year when the MJO got stuck in the warm phases right in the heart of winter.  Joe's prediction of the cold coming back fast and furious last February was a major missed forecast, and it was based on the MJO moving into a colder phase.  It did eventually happen, but it was late March and April--too late to help recover our winter in Tennessee.

I wonder if that was why a lot of 2006-07 (that is one of his analogs) didn't go as planned with the exception of that 3 week period at the end of January into February.  His other analogs worked like a charm for most if not all of us.   

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2018, 10:54:52 AM »
All I know is the signs are pointing towards a SSW event that will unleash the polar vortex into the Lower 48...

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2018, 12:18:58 PM »
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2018, 01:42:42 PM »
Do we ring a bell or something to signal an hour of free drinks for everybody the first time polar vortex makes it into the Winter thread?  ::applause::

Let's just not start a drinking game for every time it makes it into the thread or we'll all be soused.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2018, 08:32:42 PM »


Bingo is a safe alternative for those that want to play a game and keep their liver healthy. 

 

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