* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 7003 times)

StormNine, cbrentv318 and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,549
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Winter 2018-19
« on: August 01, 2018, 10:09:56 AM »
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 07:15:13 PM by Curt »

Offline Skillsweather

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,950
  • Location: Lebanon-Tn-North eastern part of Wilson County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2018, 11:34:44 AM »
Around here it seems to be more of a luck thing either it happens or it dont because something randomly happens. But it also makes it more special when we get them imo.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,178
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1144
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 11:41:05 AM »
Fire away since its August 1st. What we know very prelim?

1. ENSO: Most forecasts are for a central based weak El Nino. Subject to change to even neutral. Either would favor below normal temps

2. QBO: still highly negative east based. Will prob be trending upwards over the winter but still be negative. What you don't want is a highly positive QBO which isn't likely. This would at least help with normal or below normal temps.

3. Solar- we are nearing a minimum which usually can affect ENSO from warming into a highly positive territory. It could even throw a curve ball into Fall and send us back into Nina territory although modeling does now show this at this time. What you don't want is a highly negative ENSO or strong La Nina OR strong El Nino- which neither are likely for now.

4. PDO- for now looks like a positive PDO which could favor ridging out west and consistent toughing east. we've seen this before (see analogs below).

Early analogs mostly based on ENSO? 2014-15, 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80. Will narrow these down later this Fall.
doubt we see ever another 76 77.... 77 78 type winter ... those two winters pretty historic overall....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 670
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2018, 03:40:02 PM »
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,971
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1236
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2018, 04:39:17 PM »
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.
The winters of the 70's were great, 85 was right up there too. Hopefully we get some good snows this winter. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,963
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 859
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2018, 05:17:40 PM »
I was born in 1997, so someone as young as me living in this state couldn't imagine how snowy those late 70s winters were.

Fingers crossed for a good winter. We deserve one, statewide. Been too long since the whole state was actively WSW or WWA under a single system. Last WSW for Knox Co. was Jan '17.


Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,229
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 07:47:35 PM »
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.


Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,178
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1144
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2018, 09:13:37 PM »
Winter is what you make of it. You cant please everyone. Statewide events are rare, I like my lamb medium. This year I will start a contest , who ever gets the first snowfall pictures in TN wins a date with Bruce.
lol... better be a woman than....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 670
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2018, 10:00:09 PM »

Born in 97?  You a youngin' alright.  You even missed the good winters of '94 & '96.  At least, they were pretty epic up in southeast KY where I lived at the time.  I'm not sure how TN fared those two years.  I always considered 1996 the last of the "great ones" in my personal list of epic winters.  After '96, most winters were torched to the nines with the exception of '03.  Snow was sparse and bitter Arctic air seemed non-existent.  There was only one memorable snow between 96 and 03 (for me), and it was February 98--a heavy, wet snow that mainly hit the Plateau and southeast KY.

I'm the youngest person on the board, possibly by a long shot. I'll be around a while to observe significant climate change. Or maybe I will not notice anything too different. Time will tell.

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,635
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2018, 09:54:09 PM »
For most of TN the greats from 1950 and after are: 1950-51, 1959-60, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1967-68, the late 70's, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

2009-10 and 2010-11 can be considered greats in some areas.   

2010-11 was actually solidly cold and snowy from Thanksgiving to Valentine's Day before all severe weather heck was unleashed from late Feb through the Spring/Early Summer.     



Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,963
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 859
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2018, 07:56:04 AM »
I consider the winter of 2009-10 the first "decent" winter after 02-03, and from that year on we had some decent to good ones in the area.  At the very least, there was a trend to colder after the long warm spell from 1996 to 2009.  While not every winter was cold from 09 to present day, we've fared far better than the previous 12 years when we couldn't buy an Arctic outbreak, save for 02-03.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 670
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 498
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2018, 09:47:21 AM »
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work


Offline cgauxknox

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 465
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 273
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2018, 11:19:25 AM »
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,963
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 859
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2018, 05:28:44 PM »
Congrats on becoming a mod, JayCee! I'll be sure to swear and make hostile political comments as much as possible to keep you hard at work
;D

If we have a winter like last one, I might be swearing with you.  Can a moderator moderate himself?    ::pondering::

Actually, I'm getting a bit pumped about this winter.  Curt mentioned many of the puzzle pieces in his post, and if they can come together at the right time (and that's the rub), we might have ourselves some fun times ahead.  Last winter, everything fell into place too late for this far south (cold April). But northern areas, like Michigan, got buried in spring snow.  January was cold, but as is sometimes the case, moisture was limited (except for west TN).

When it comes to winter weather in the mid-south and southern Apps, timing is everything. 
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 06:37:39 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,963
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 859
Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2018, 08:04:26 AM »
Chris Bailey from KY had some winter talk in today's post.

http://kyweathercenter.com/

While he can be over the top and "sensational" in his forecasts, the one thing he can do pretty well is sniff out long term patterns.  Here's a quote from the current post. . .

Quote
I promised you guys a little winter talk, so lets do this. Ive already shared some early thoughts over the past month or two I like the way the El Nio is forecast to setup. The placement in the central Nino region and the weak look to it, both argue for a winter trough across our region. That would be good news to cold and snow lovers.


He's obviously excited about the mean trough some models depict setting up shop in the eastern U.S., and lingering most of the winter.  At the very least, it would argue against any long stretch of well-above normal temperatures like we saw last February that killed our winter. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

Advertisement