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Author Topic: Winter 2018-19  (Read 235687 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #540 on: December 05, 2018, 07:50:14 PM »
Snow model disclaimer:

While there is a possibility that some areas could see significant winter weather with major impacts (particularly parts of NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC) and at least a fighting chance for many of us we need to use caution with snowfall maps. 

The following needs to be considered
- The tropical tidbits model shows any mix falling as snow
- Models assume that all precipitation that falls will accumulate on the ground and doesn't factor in ground temperatures or compaction. 
- Models assume a 10:1 ratio many times


Often times it is advised to half the amounts shown on models due to these factors.  With that being said you can take the snow values at face value or even greater if banding is expected as models underestimate rates in deformation bands or in any situation where convective bands are possible.   The caveat there is that those values will be localized and there will be winners and losers. 

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #541 on: December 05, 2018, 09:02:22 PM »
I am coming home from the Sierras tomorrow. It nuked here today, so I will bring the vibe back with me. Focus one one area, which mine are thermals. Its going to be interesting to see what a little elevation does with this system. A trip to the hometown mountains look in order, the higher elevations are going to do quite well it looks like
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 09:04:15 PM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #542 on: December 05, 2018, 09:17:50 PM »
0z NAM anyone ?



Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #543 on: December 05, 2018, 09:18:07 PM »
0z NAM. Iíll cash out now. Thanks
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Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #544 on: December 05, 2018, 09:27:00 PM »
0z NAM. Yessa. Bring that baby home to the entire state.


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Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #545 on: December 05, 2018, 09:37:05 PM »
That's a Home Run for most everybody on here. ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #546 on: December 05, 2018, 09:39:28 PM »
almost the whole entire state of Tennessee just got NAM D...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #547 on: December 05, 2018, 09:41:30 PM »
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.

The 3km, at the end of its run at hour 60, is lined up perfectly with the 12km NAM at the same timeframe. So that is good to see.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 09:46:22 PM by Charles L. »
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Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #548 on: December 05, 2018, 09:46:02 PM »
Not to be Debbie Downer, but I do want to stress it is the 84th hour of the NAM...make of that as you like.

I will say, the NAM has been consistently colder than any other model ever since this system came into our range this time yesterday.
Booo!!! Lol


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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #549 on: December 05, 2018, 09:48:32 PM »
WE need the gfs to get of its a$$ and throw us a bone.... >:D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #550 on: December 05, 2018, 09:53:11 PM »
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #551 on: December 05, 2018, 09:57:25 PM »
The temp profiles on the GFS make no sense.

At hour 60 it has us at 32F

At hour 66 we jump all the way up to 39F

At hour 72 we fall back down to 34F

WTF GFS
there is not one model showing that kind of a warm nose.... don't make sense
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #552 on: December 05, 2018, 10:02:11 PM »
At hour 60 I have a temp/DP spread of 32/25

At hour 66 the temp jumps to 38 and DP goes to 29

At hour 72, I assume wetbulbing takes hold as our temp plummets  to 34 and DP climbs to 32


If that was to happen I would throw my phone through the living room TV.

The radical temp jump is even higher for areas of eastern KY. Some jump 10 degrees in that 6 hour window. Miami FL goes up 11 and one location in Cuba rises 18 degrees from 12z Sunday to 18z Sunday!
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 10:08:46 PM by Charles L. »
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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #553 on: December 05, 2018, 10:07:56 PM »
Sigh, better have plenty of phones available and TV's ::lookaround::


Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Winter 2018-19
« Reply #554 on: December 05, 2018, 10:19:02 PM »
What your take on the GFS 00 and CMC 00 Charles?

 

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