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Author Topic: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread  (Read 5801 times)

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Offline bugalou

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The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« on: June 02, 2018, 03:07:11 PM »
I figure with summer ramping up it may be good to start a thread to track MCS threats.  Since they can be tough to predict, having dedicated threads is probably bad.

any ways, us here in the west have a decent chance of strong storms this evening with the cold fropa enhanced with an MCV picked up in southern MO.


Offline JayCee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2018, 07:10:44 AM »
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2018, 07:34:16 AM »
These summertime pop up storms we are seeing have been potent. Iíve already had penny to nickel size hail at my house and Gallatin has already had the same plus some wind damage.
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Offline Adam

Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2018, 10:27:53 AM »
SPC has not outlined any risk area yet, but we need to keep an eye on Friday. The cutoff low affecting the Mountain West will advect into the Ohio Valley and there will actually be some moderate upper level winds. Does not take much forcing in the summertime to get thunderstorms going and 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear should keep the storm type organized. Right now the best kinematics appear to be south of I-40, but if anything occurs it will quickly evolve into some type of MCS with only ~100 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline CT_Yankee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2018, 01:17:06 PM »
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.
July generally seems to be "peak MCS season" around here so not counting it out yet by any means.
Aaron
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2018, 04:03:46 AM »
Iím not sure if that other ďsummerĒ thread is a joke/banter thread, and this is the serious one or what, so Iíll put this here.

Day 3 outlook text for Friday...

Quote
   ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley...
   A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River
   to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and
   relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely
   area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern
   AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of
   antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low.
   A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later
   outlooks
.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2018, 06:37:59 AM »
Storm chances take a big jump over the next few days in a more active pattern.  Welcome rain for the garden here.  Topsoil is pretty dried out after a hot, rainless week. 

Post Merge: June 20, 2018, 03:35:57 PM
Been rather dry in east TN per MRX:

Quote
The combination of a weakening ridge,
a modest amount of instability, and high precipitable water
content will mean widespread showers and thunderstorms for
Thursday, with the threat of some localized heavy rains. The
threat of flash flooding, at least with this initial onset of
precipitation, is uncertain. We have been exceptionally dry over
the last two weeks, with much of eastern TN, southwest VA, and
southwest NC, having seen less than 50 percent of normal rainfall
for that 2 week time span. In fact, much of the Tennessee Valley
has seen only 25 to 50 percent of normal rain for the last 2
weeks.
So while localized, heavy downpours are certainly going to
be a possibility in the coming days, confidence in the threat of
flash flooding tomorrow is not very high at this time.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2018, 03:35:57 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2018, 05:53:19 AM »


Quote
...Lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast States....

   MCS may still be in progress over the lower MS Valley region and
   most likely over AR. It remains uncertain whether this activity will
   be severe, but remnant MCV and outflow boundaries accompanying the
   MCS will provide a focus for additional development during the day.
   The downstream atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable
   with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. A belt of stronger winds aloft will
   accompany the MCV/shortwave trough, and storms will likely
   reintensify during the afternoon. The environment appears supportive
   of swaths of damaging wind through the afternoon into the early
   evening.

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« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 05:55:26 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline harlequin

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2018, 08:40:38 AM »
Power is out across a large part of south Memphis/Collierville/Germantown.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2018, 01:25:12 PM »
That was quite a feisty storm. An inch of rain fell in 10 minutes. It was probably below severe limits though. No hail, maybe 40 mph winds.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2018, 02:26:45 PM »
That cluster has rode the southern counties the whole length of the state from west to east, producing warnings all today. I wonder how far off it is from being considered a derecho.

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2018, 03:17:07 PM »
The radar looks so promising for rain here. Idk what the hpc is seeing because no models show rain north of 40 really but hpc  has the bulk of the rain north of 40.

Offline Vols1

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2018, 04:56:54 PM »
Looks like a watch is possible coming up soon

Offline StormNine

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2018, 07:39:09 PM »
Tornado Watch for the AL border counties.  Supercells are possible along the remnant boundary.  A cluster of storms in NW AL looks to get going soon. 

Offline Charles L.

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2018, 07:14:52 AM »
Memphis is having a field day with severe storms this morning. Already their 3rd warning today I believe.
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