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Author Topic: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread  (Read 530 times)

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Offline bugalou

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The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« on: June 02, 2018, 03:07:11 PM »
I figure with summer ramping up it may be good to start a thread to track MCS threats.  Since they can be tough to predict, having dedicated threads is probably bad.

any ways, us here in the west have a decent chance of strong storms this evening with the cold fropa enhanced with an MCV picked up in southern MO.


Offline JayCee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2018, 07:10:44 AM »
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Charles L.

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #2 on: Yesterday at 07:34:16 AM »
These summertime pop up storms we are seeing have been potent. Iíve already had penny to nickel size hail at my house and Gallatin has already had the same plus some wind damage.
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Offline Adam

Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #3 on: Yesterday at 10:27:53 AM »
SPC has not outlined any risk area yet, but we need to keep an eye on Friday. The cutoff low affecting the Mountain West will advect into the Ohio Valley and there will actually be some moderate upper level winds. Does not take much forcing in the summertime to get thunderstorms going and 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear should keep the storm type organized. Right now the best kinematics appear to be south of I-40, but if anything occurs it will quickly evolve into some type of MCS with only ~100 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline CT_Yankee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #4 on: Yesterday at 01:17:06 PM »
So far, MCS "season" has been as slow as spring severe season.  Pretty benign weather pattern in place, until possibly late week.  Even then, just a weak front settling in to provide chances of scattered storms.
July generally seems to be "peak MCS season" around here so not counting it out yet by any means.
Aaron
@MarshSevereWx (#tspotter for Marshall Co)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #5 on: Today at 04:03:46 AM »
Iím not sure if that other ďsummerĒ thread is a joke/banter thread, and this is the serious one or what, so Iíll put this here.

Day 3 outlook text for Friday...

Quote
   ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley...
   A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River
   to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and
   relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely
   area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern
   AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of
   antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low.
   A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later
   outlooks
.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: The Official Summer 2018 MCS fest Thread
« Reply #6 on: Today at 06:37:59 AM »
Storm chances take a big jump over the next few days in a more active pattern.  Welcome rain for the garden here.  Topsoil is pretty dried out after a hot, rainless week. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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