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Author Topic: Subtropical Storm Alberto  (Read 2364 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Subtropical Storm Alberto
« on: May 23, 2018, 07:37:37 AM »
Forecasts continue to show a high likelihood of Invest 90L developing at least into a Tropical Depression for Memorial Day weekend.  Regardless of development it seems certain that Florida and the Southeast as a whole are going to see several days of heavy rain from the system, which will be responsible for the likely washout of Memorial Day weekend in Tennessee.  Considering the sinkhole issues Florida is already experiencing from recent rainfall a heavy rain tropical event could lead to serious concerns there, and lots of ruined cookouts and lake days here.

On another, far more important, note, take some time in the coming weekend to remember and honor the sacrifice of those who gave their lives in service to our country.  ::flag::
« Last Edit: May 25, 2018, 10:53:31 AM by Thundersnow »

Online BRUCE

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2018, 08:11:47 AM »
Forecasts continue to show a high likelihood of Invest 90L developing at least into a Tropical Depression for Memorial Day weekend.  Regardless of development it seems certain that Florida and the Southeast as a whole are going to see several days of heavy rain from the system, which will be responsible for the likely washout of Memorial Day weekend in Tennessee.  Considering the sinkhole issues Florida is already experiencing from recent rainfall a heavy rain tropical event could lead to serious concerns there, and lots of ruined cookouts and lake days here.

On another, far more important, note, take some time in the coming weekend to remember and honor the sacrifice of those who gave their lives in service to our country.  ::flag::
semper fi.... ::flag::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2018, 02:05:48 PM »
Just checked the latest NHC posting and they're putting 5 day chances of development at 60%.  That includes sub-tropical or tropical storm status, so we're probably not looking at a tropical storm, but the threat here is as a rainmaker.

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2018, 03:02:01 PM »
If we have +100 degree days with high humidity, I will give up.

Hopefully this will keep us in the mid 90's for most of June.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2018, 07:14:48 AM »
While Memorial Day weekend is obviously our priority right now for weather this thread may not be named properly as NHC is now expecting a high probability of a tropical or subtropical depression to form over the weekend.  From an article on TWC, "This system may become trapped over the South, maintaining the tropical moisture fetch into the Southeast well into next week."  It looks like we may be in for a long haul of tropical downpours from this one.  ::drowning::  Good thing we got new kayaks last weekend  ::whistling::

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2018, 10:17:51 AM »
Time for a thread title update. We officially have “subtropical” storm Alberto. Evidently there must be some frontogenesis happening with it.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Memorial Day 2018 Tropical Threat
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2018, 11:31:39 AM »
Time for a thread title update. We officially have “subtropical” storm Alberto. Evidently there must be some frontogenesis happening with it.
Thanks for catching the official naming and getting the update in!

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2018, 12:57:25 PM »
Forecast track has moved west.


Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2018, 01:02:01 PM »
They're now saying there is a chance it will reach hurricane strength before landfall on Monday but that it won't really matter as the real risk is flooding rains inland as far as north of Atlanta.  I'm guessing we'll see the track wobble some more before they really get confident in where it's going, but much of the Southeast will have a flood threat through this time next week regardless of the exact eye path.

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2018, 03:52:32 PM »
This is so good for us in Tennessee to get a solid rain for everybody. THe flooding looks to mainly be east Tn and south problem for us its just a break from this intense heat. Not everyone needs the rain but for those that do this is perfect for areawide coverage. No more droughts please
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2018, 07:02:04 AM »
Landfall was around Destin yesterday. The center of circulation is around Birmingham now, riding of I-65. Flash flood watch is in effect for much of TN.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2018, 08:47:20 AM »
Even after Alberto departs mid-week, we still look locked in a wet weather pattern for the near future. 

Per MRX:
Quote
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...
Center of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will be north of
the area by Wednesday morning, but that doesn`t mean the rainfall
associated with it will be over. In fact, I found it hard to nail
down any specific stretch of the long term period that didn`t have
at least a solid chance of rainfall, but I digress.

For Wednesday, moist southerly flow will continue across the area,
with decent instability in place for the afternoon hours. Expect
fairly robust convection to develop during the day, which will be
able to tap into a high-PWAT atmosphere and possibly produce some
flooding issues. Further hydrologic issues could be seen on Thursday
and again Friday with strong lapse rates and high instability, north
of 2,000 J/kg per some guidance, will lead to some strong storms and
yet more rain. That being said, while there is cause for concern,
the degree of flooding that might occur will depend on the amount of
rainfall we get over the next 24 hours with the passage of Alberto.
So it`s a bit difficult to predict how widespread flooding issues
may be Wednesday through Friday.

Drier air will move in from the west as we get near the weekend
leading to a decrease in precipitation chances in general, though
rain chances will not completely go away. Early next week models are
indicating a shortwave comes diving out of the northwest bringing
yet another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Did I mention I had a hard time finding a long stretch where there`s
not a decent chance of rain in the long term period?
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Beth

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2018, 09:38:18 AM »
Our lawn mower guys are having a hard time keeping our grass down.  Bugs and Mosquitoes are going to have a hayday the next couple of weeks.  It was bad enough having no spring this year but now we get a soggy summer.   >:(   Sorry rant over!

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2018, 09:41:55 AM »
Our fescue yard was thick, green, and lush all spring. It didn't take much hot weather for it to actually start turning brown (the only  advantage of bermuda versus fescue). So, I actually watered earlier in the weekend... hopefully, it won't need it for a week or more with the rains coming.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2018, 12:52:56 PM »
Is it just me or does it look like the bulk of the rain and flooding potential is going to stay west of 65?

 

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