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Author Topic: Summer (Cancel) 2018  (Read 21228 times)

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Offline Tom Hensley

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #120 on: July 08, 2018, 08:53:15 PM »
Long range models look warm to me especially into next weekend and beyond.Euro next Sunday for BNA shows temps climbing up to 98 but DP's are only low 60's.Heat index would only around 100.But after that into the following Monday temps still are in potentially the upper 90's with DP's climbing maybe into the lower 70's.Heat index would be close to heat advisory.I don't see much change through out this week,it looks hot to me.The jet is stuck upcoming into Mongolia and China on the GEFS,with HP Japan,Korea and China until the HP goes into China finally.Really think the week after next will be possibly be a hot period upcoming,then a cool down
Post Merge: Today at 08:48:30 PM

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #121 on: July 08, 2018, 10:12:50 PM »
Long range models look warm to me especially into next weekend and beyond.Euro next Sunday for BNA shows temps climbing up to 98 but DP's are only low 60's.Heat index would only around 100.But after that into the following Monday temps still are in potentially the upper 90's with DP's climbing maybe into the lower 70's.Heat index would be close to heat advisory.I don't see much change through out this week,it looks hot to me.The jet is stuck upcoming into Mongolia and China on the GEFS,with HP Japan,Korea and China until the HP goes into China finally.Really think the week after next will be possibly be a hot period upcoming,then a cool down
Post Merge: Today at 08:48:30 PM

Please tell me it looks dry also.

Offline Tom Hensley

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #122 on: July 09, 2018, 12:20:37 AM »
Please tell me it looks dry also.

Some parts of Tn need rains though and are in a abnormal drought,especially into Middle Tn

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #123 on: July 09, 2018, 06:49:55 AM »
Some parts of Tn need rains though and are in a abnormal drought,especially into Middle Tn

The rain has been very spotty here over the weekend, as well.  Some areas had plenty, and many areas had none (my house).  Radar estimates showed some locations getting between 1-2 inches of rain, while within a mile or two of that heavy rain, almost nothing fell.  Typical summer-time storms.
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Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #124 on: July 10, 2018, 03:45:10 PM »
way the tv people made it sound we was going to have a decent chance at rain today. I was wondering what they was looking at but yeah today is more of an isolated day vs scattered. It did rain at my work at lunch though and you can still feel the coolness (compared to like 90s). Also that Hurricane in the Atlantic has been moving so so slow imagine that near land that would be some major flooding. It barely moved like 30miles in 1day but its moving more now kind of i guess
Almost 4 days over the same 100mile area https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/CHRIS_graphics.php
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 03:49:40 PM by Skillsweather »
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Offline WXHD

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #125 on: July 10, 2018, 09:12:37 PM »
Got my first summer time electric bill with my nest. It was significantly hotter in this billing period versus both last month and last year. Itís kinda silly but, I think itís really neat to see how this technology has changed my home. Anywho, hereís my first scorcher bill with the nest and I saved a bunch of money over my old system(I would have accepted a $250 bill.)
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #126 on: July 12, 2018, 08:54:53 AM »
HPC is showing increasing rains next week. Anyone know why or is it just summer time storms. Looks like a stalled out front or something but i dont look at models or nothing.
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #127 on: July 12, 2018, 04:02:47 PM »
HPC is showing increasing rains next week. Anyone know why or is it just summer time storms. Looks like a stalled out front or something but i dont look at models or nothing.

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Post Merge: July 12, 2018, 04:11:39 PM
Likely shift from a Neutral ENSO to an El Nino will occur over the rest of the summer. NOAA estimates a 60% probability of El Nino during the winter months.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 04:11:39 PM by schneitzeit, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Tom Hensley

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #128 on: July 12, 2018, 10:06:12 PM »
The Euro and GFS has timing issues with the shortwave trough the first part of next week.The Euro shows a stronger trough,not sure which one to believe,but the GFS right now looks to be around 6hrs faster.The Upper ridge though is breaking down sooner than what was being shown which looks to be Saturday and not later.Could see some potential strong storms Monday,if the Euro is right these would go into the over night with the showalter index.Dont trust the Euro though with mesoscales this time of year.But we'll see.

Long range looks like another warm spell coming into the first week of August.The SOI rose to 13.85 today,this is more Nina,big jump of almost 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies tonight even look warmer during this time with the 850mb's getting even higher into 25c in some parts,this is a hot signal but just like this hot spell there is a upper level trough so this would be just a  transient hot spell as this would drop the heights back down,least that's what it shows right now.No signs of an Indian summer right now anyways
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 10:14:18 PM by Tom Hensley »

Online dwagner88

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #129 on: July 13, 2018, 08:54:39 PM »
Ate dinner by the pool this evening. I noticed that it felt unusually sticky, even for this time of the year. We had a nice thundershower at around 5 pm that dropped 1.25Ē of rain. The sun then came back out. The DP is now 77 at KCHA. The highest I ever remember seeing it is 78. I hope that mixes out or we will have a hot west TN style night.
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Offline Curt

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #130 on: July 14, 2018, 04:10:44 PM »
Heat index 109 at 4pm at KMEM. Summer is wearing its welcome out. Getting to that point where Iím counting the days.

Offline JHart

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #131 on: July 15, 2018, 08:55:29 AM »
This soupy air is being very productive out here NE Rutherford County.  We are certainly making up for lost time this morning.   ::rain::
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Curt

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #132 on: July 15, 2018, 06:08:36 PM »


Battle of the outflows....

Offline Tom Hensley

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #133 on: July 15, 2018, 11:11:53 PM »
This board is seriously hard to manuever though,especially trying to do multiple pics,is there a secret to this?
But anyways this afternoons models has some potential severe storms Friday.The Euro has some decent lift like the GFS of -9 and capes in excess of over 3k in Middle Tn.The abnormal Upper level trough for this time of year  brings some decent wind shear.So we'll see if the SPC puts us in a slight risk upcoming the next day or two.With the GFS and Euro both showing the instabilities it seems possible right now.But this looks more like any strong storms should die maybe with the loss of diurnal heating,looks like a decent capping inversion over night right now
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 11:20:01 PM by Tom Hensley »

Offline harlequin

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Re: Summer (Cancel) 2018
« Reply #134 on: July 15, 2018, 11:48:54 PM »
This board is seriously hard to manuever though,especially trying to do multiple pics,is there a secret to this?

If you try a few times, you can normally get 2-3 to attach. You can also  do one in a separate post and the post-merge will combine it into one. Not sure why it's finicky, but the forum is pretty straightforward beyond that at least!

 

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