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Author Topic: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk  (Read 5350 times)

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2018, 10:41:21 AM »
Really dynamic systems such as this one always have a higher than normal chance of going bust.  If they don't go bust they tend to produce very significant severe weather events.  It is a high-risk potentially high-reward day for any storm chasers in Arkansas (that MDT risk, for the most part, is in awful chase territory by the way) or SW Iowa/far SE Nebraska which I think is the sleeper threat with today's event.

If I were chasing today the play would have been to drive to the triple point in Iowa. Second option would be to sit in Pine Bluff Arkansas and hope something goes way ahead before instantly going linear.  West of Pine Bluff to the Texas boarder is a very hard spot to chase so I wouldn't even waste my time.  I have a major dentist visit on tap for 1 PM today but if I am feeling better I may play the nocturnal threat in east Arkansas after 8

Offline BRUCE

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2018, 10:49:11 AM »
If I were chasing today the play would have been to drive to the triple point in Iowa. Second option would be to sit in Pine Bluff Arkansas and hope something goes way ahead before instantly going linear.  West of Pine Bluff to the Texas boarder is a very hard spot to chase so I wouldn't even waste my time.  I have a major dentist visit on tap for 1 PM today but if I am feeling better I may play the nocturnal threat in east Arkansas after 8
going disagree with you... best tornado threat going be just west of little rock... approaching dryline... seems to be a very sharp cut off with this triple point threat... winds back in western ark look directional also... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2018, 11:23:31 AM »
going disagree with you... best tornado threat going be just west of little rock... approaching dryline... seems to be a very sharp cut off with this triple point threat... winds back in western ark look directional also... ::coffee::

The best place to chase do not always align with the best tor prob locations.  You have to pick your poison sometimes

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2018, 11:44:21 AM »
The best place to chase do not always align with the best tor prob locations.  You have to pick your poison sometimes

Hence, the classic "Eastern Oklahoma Problem" that every single hardcore storm chaser has to go through on classic tornado alley days when the best threat is on the wrong side of Tulsa. 

Post Merge: April 13, 2018, 12:15:19 PM
Speaking of Oklahoma

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
REQUESTED BY DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WARNING AT THE REQUEST OF THE DEWEY COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

* AT 1151 AM CDT...A WILDFIRE WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF VICI AND
  APPROACHING THE IOCHEM IODINE PLANT EAST OF VICI.


* LOCATIONS...PEOPLE WHO LIVE WITHIN THREE MILES OF THE IOCHEM
  PLANT SHOULD EVACUATE NOW.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...THE COMMUNITY BUILDING IN VICI IS OPEN
  FOR A SHELTER.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 12:15:19 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2018, 12:31:01 PM »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2018, 12:42:53 PM »
This is interesting

https://twitter.com/CalebGrunzke/status/984842488866377728
pretty much spot on ... biggest risk

Post Merge: April 13, 2018, 01:14:12 PM
word is first tornado watch coming out for moderate risk area... could be  PDS  ::coffee::
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 01:14:12 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2018, 02:16:57 PM »
That Arkansas, NE TX area watch is a PDS watch.  The level of tornado threat will depend on storm mode and how long any storm can stay discreet.  The potential is there for a concerning tornado threat in a climatological active area for tornadoes, but storm mode will be key. 

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2018, 04:27:17 PM »
Debris signature on warned storm around Fort Smith Ark.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2018, 05:18:07 PM »

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2018, 06:54:20 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weMtk95Mo7s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR-csiVU-AY
that was in the suggested videos and wow that guy says "major monster massive  freak hybrid storm" lmao what??
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline harlequin

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2018, 06:56:55 PM »
Storms certainly aren't having difficulty rotating early this evening. Threat seems to ramping up in N LA and AR.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2018, 07:04:59 PM »
Either an extension of the tornado watch east and northeast (Arkansas, Louisiana, west Mississippi)  or a new PDS watch needs to be issued ASAP.

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2018, 07:42:23 PM »
Storms are trolling the SPC this evening.  Most all of the Tornado Warnings have been west, northwest, south, and southeast of the Moderate Risk area.

In the short term N LA and perhaps adjacent parts of S Arkansas and W Mississippi is where the best tornado threat is.  The winds don't veer as much over there as they do is in much of the MDT risk area. 

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2018, 09:45:14 PM »
Channel 7 in Little Rock has been a pretty interesting watch tonight.  They have had John Robinson from LZK on with them all night.  It's been interesting having a NWS employee live on air the whole time. 

Actually John just retired from LZK but it's been nice to have him on none the less.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 10:04:00 PM by memphishogfan »

Offline West Tn Storm Tracker

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Re: April 13-14th 2018 Severe Risk
« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2018, 10:52:32 PM »
Tornado Watch till 6:00 am for :
CROCKETT             DYER                FAYETTE
GIBSON               HARDEMAN            HAYWOOD
LAKE                 LAUDERDALE          MADISON
OBION                SHELBY              TIPTON
WEAKLEY

 

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