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Author Topic: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018  (Read 7935 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2018, 02:05:29 PM »
These lapse rates nothing sneeze about... glad I have full coverage on my new 🚗
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2018, 04:41:14 PM »
Two of the analogs are 3/2/2012 and 4/4/2011, take that as you wish. The former is pretty striking, to me at least in overall presentation with the system and would not be at all shocked if the outlook gets upgraded tomorrow.

When factoring in the storm mode I think 4/4/2011 is probably the best analog for tomorrow and it is the same time of year.  If you take away the warm front supercell, the event this past February is also a pretty decent analog of possible storm mode and impacts.  There is enough low-level shear for some tornado threat along the line and the potential for widespread wind damage is there.  The public could get caught off guard here because for a lot of the threat area, especially KY north it really hasn't felt like springtime so it would be reasonable for people not to expect something like this. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2018, 04:12:52 AM »
if we keep getting short range model runs like the latest HRRR... that 5 percent tornado risk will need to be raised to potentially 10 percent least... if things stay under enhanced... nice cells later in today crossing ms river... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2018, 04:36:12 AM »
if we keep getting short range model runs like the latest HRRR... that 5 percent tornado risk will need to be raised to potentially 10 percent least... if things stay under enhanced... nice cells later in today crossing ms river... ::coffee::

It even keeps the line broken over here in middle TN. If that is the case, which I am still thinking this molds into a squall line very rapidly, then the tornado threat will be a bit higher.

This is a large ENH risk too. I wouldn’t be shocked that if it appears a widespread damaging wind event is unfolding that we see a bump up to MDT risk for someone.
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Offline MSR041933

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2018, 05:59:52 AM »
ENH expanded further east to cover much of middle Tennessee from Cookville  down to around Fayetteville
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 06:04:58 AM by MSR041933 »
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2018, 06:24:22 AM »
Well, the promised round of big thunder is now in West Knoxville to start the day  ::wow::  It doesn't look like we'll have very much, but the house has rumbled a good bit in the past couple of minutes.  East TN looks to be out of the heaviest weather with the front that's coming today but we're expecting some good thunder and lightning overnight.  It's feeling more like spring in the South!  ::yum::

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2018, 06:40:31 AM »
April 3....bad memories for me hate we are gonna have storms today...Nashville gives West Tn severe storms from 5-7, Jackson says 7-9....anyone wanna narrow the gap. Hoping family in Franklin County has a safe day and night

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2018, 08:06:25 AM »
Great call by spc. Going to 10 percent hatches area Nader threat... extreme west to nw tn. Latest hrrr says we’re playing with danger especially early in event ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2018, 08:48:26 AM »
East Arkansas, west Tennessee, nosing into west Kentucky are in the "tornado sweet spot" for this event for sure with some pretty scary updraft helicity streaks approaching the MS river around 23z. If any sun pokes through today this could go from bad to worse for west Tennessee.


EDIT:

Check out the winds and temperature today at 23z. Going to be a very bad day for somebody in the west part of the state.

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« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 08:51:08 AM by wfrogge »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2018, 08:58:51 AM »
East Arkansas, west Tennessee, nosing into west Kentucky are in the "tornado sweet spot" for this event for sure with some pretty scary updraft helicity streaks approaching the MS river around 23z. If any sun pokes through today this could go from bad to worse for west Tennessee.


EDIT:

Check out the winds and temperature today at 23z. Going to be a very bad day for somebody in the west part of the state.
sun been out pretty good here last hour...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2018, 09:04:30 AM »
I'll gladly take the typical weakening squall line here in the east, and no complaints here about a "marginal" risk.  I enjoy thunderstorms, but not the damaging variety IMBY.  I want to keep the 80-100ft trees in the yard upright.

Everyone stay safe out west. 
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Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2018, 09:07:21 AM »
Almost whole state of Arkansas has cleared out as nw miss also....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2018, 09:08:50 AM »
sun been out pretty good here last hour...

Sun is shining here now. Been in and out all morning..DARN

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #28 on: April 03, 2018, 09:08:57 AM »
Too much sun could cause mixing concerns. Just something to consider.
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Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Severe Wx Threat - Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2018, 09:16:31 AM »
Too much sun could cause mixing concerns. Just something to consider.
But for us since its a night threat i think it could make it worse. Might make storms have trouble at first forming but not after the atmosphere unstables again later.

 

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