* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018  (Read 13598 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,182
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1146
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #210 on: March 20, 2018, 10:48:57 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.
outstanding point... wonder if they let school out  April 3 1974.... forgot. I was old enough to remember that day ... and we didnít get out for that major event...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,856
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1778
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #211 on: March 20, 2018, 11:10:01 AM »
I donít think I ever got out for severe wx, heck I remember one time we had to stay over an hour past closing due to the storms.
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,655
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #212 on: March 20, 2018, 11:41:35 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.

I grew up (you probably did too) with tornado drills in school. We would practice going to the interior hallways and put our arms over heads and kneel down against the inner walls. I remember a couple of times doing it for real when there was a warning. Now, I guess that's all pre-empted by early dismissal, which in my view makes a much bigger target to disperse children to their homes all around the area where tornadoes can hit. I guess the only argument for it is to avoid having buses on the road when severe weather is hitting.

Offline spanarkle08

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 51
  • Location: Clarksburg, near I 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #213 on: March 20, 2018, 11:50:37 AM »
outstanding point... wonder if they let school out  April 3 1974.... forgot. I was old enough to remember that day ... and we didnít get out for that major event...

They did not let school on Black Wed. the weather wasnt bad until late afternoon in south middle tn....then when it got bad it got BAD

Offline @NashSevereWx

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 363
  • Location: Davidson & Williamson Counties
    • @NashSevereWx
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #214 on: March 20, 2018, 12:56:47 PM »
Each year for 20 consecutive years, I bought auto insurance. Why? Partially because it's the law, but I don't buy the minimum insurance to qualify as "legal," I get as much coverage as I need to protect my assets. I do this because there is a small risk I'll be in an accident, and if that accident is a bad one, I may have liability to someone else or I may suffer a big loss. So I buy the insurance so I do not have to shoulder the possibility of economic loss.

My risk assessment and risk tolerance informs my decision. Auto property and liability insurance has had value to me because it removed a financial risk and protected assets I am responsible to protect. It eliminated the impact of financial loss for a risk I'm exposed to, and I'm fully aware that risk is of a low probability, high impact scenario.

Yesterday, when decisions had to be made about canceling school, school systems were told the ETA for storms was 4 PM to 530 PM (for Middle TN). Decisionmakers were told by the expert risk analysis people storms would arrive during peak dismissal time. This is when the kids, who are in-transit, are most vulnerable. Thus the decision was made to not have kids riding home in buses, or home via mom or dad in a car, and/or walking to their home or apartment, when threatening storms were expected to arrive.

This left school systems with two options: hold the kids until the storm passes, or dismiss them early. (We can discuss these two options later, it's outside the scope of the point I'm trying to make). 

Thus school appreciated the risk to student safety, and they acted to eliminate the worst result and protect their biggest asset from greatest harm, which is the same reason I buy auto insurance.

Over those 20 years, I have been in 2 wrecks in two separate years. None of them my fault, so the insurance I paid for was not used. Those two years I got in a wreck, I'm not upset I paid for insurance I didn't end up needing. And those 18 years where I had no wrecks at all I wasn't at all upset or grumbling to family, friends, and social media followers that I paid to insure myself for a wreck that never happened.

Why? Because by buying insurance, or when schools cancel classes, you do it to eliminate the biggest risk to your most important asset. Ultimately, your obligation as a manger of family assets, or as the custodian of the safety of transported children, is to take reasonable steps to eliminate a health and safety risk even if -- and especially when -- that risk involves uncertainty.

Those criticizing that school closure decision often do so after the insurance term has expired. What they don't say is: "See, you weren't in a wreck this year, you over-reacted and wasted your money."

School cancellations are insurance decisions.
Nowcasting Severe Weather
Davidson & Williamson Counties
@NashSevereWx on Twitter
NashSevereWx.com on the web

Offline Skillsweather

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,950
  • Location: Lebanon-Tn-North eastern part of Wilson County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #215 on: March 20, 2018, 01:19:13 PM »
Nash has the right idea. Although for the auto insurance i get the minimum (liability) because overall thats really all one needs. And it saves you lots of money on insurance ect which for those who might need more money its good plus if you never wreck and are always observant its all you need. But now days people are not always observant because of radio/phones/kids ect. I dont deal with none of that so imo for me personally minimum is all i need but from a government standpoint they have much much more risk to cover so yeah we didnt need to let school out but from their view point the risk was way to much to not let them out and be sued ect. Why has this all changed over the past decade ect? Who knows but it has and its the way things will keep being.
Basically from a personal standpoint you can make a decision and fluctuate it to your individual life but from a governments standpoint they have to fluctuate it for everyone that they cover.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline @NashSevereWx

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 363
  • Location: Davidson & Williamson Counties
    • @NashSevereWx
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #216 on: March 20, 2018, 01:56:39 PM »
It's changed over the past 10 years because ETAs have improved due to modeling and computing advances.
Nowcasting Severe Weather
Davidson & Williamson Counties
@NashSevereWx on Twitter
NashSevereWx.com on the web

Offline Hank W

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
  • Location: Germantown, TN
  • Romans 8:28
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 648
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #217 on: March 20, 2018, 06:57:10 PM »
I was on the Russellville storm yesterday in great position, but had to get out of the way because there was no visibility at all. Totally rain wrapped plus trees. But man that sky turned so so green. That is a phenomenon like no other. It was beautiful, and I wish my phone had captured it better. Tornadoes are devastating, but I think sometimes we need a reminder of the power of God. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline @NashSevereWx

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 363
  • Location: Davidson & Williamson Counties
    • @NashSevereWx
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #218 on: March 21, 2018, 04:27:25 PM »
Today's a Code Turqoise!

It's a Channel 87 Weather Alert Day!

We're in Severe Weather Mode here at WZZA!

Maybe what we think is awareness, the public sees as hype.
Nowcasting Severe Weather
Davidson & Williamson Counties
@NashSevereWx on Twitter
NashSevereWx.com on the web

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,171
  • Location: San Francisco, sometimes Midtown Memphis
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 524
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #219 on: March 21, 2018, 05:47:59 PM »
The Jacksonville, AL tornado ended up as an EF3, btw.

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,159
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 90
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #220 on: March 22, 2018, 07:21:28 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.

Schools close now on frigid mornings. Lol. I remember freezing my arse off waiting on the bus. Somehow, I survived.

Post Merge: March 22, 2018, 07:23:07 AM
I donít think I ever got out for severe wx, heck I remember one time we had to stay over an hour past closing due to the storms.

Went to school in the 80s and 90s. Never got out for severe. Snow days were it. Now some of those were questionable.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2018, 07:23:07 AM by snowdog, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,655
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #221 on: March 22, 2018, 07:37:13 AM »
Survey of the EF2 some of us were watching follow the AL/TN state line. Path length of over 23 miles. They point out it "narrowly missed" the rocket at the AL welcome center on I-65.

Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
659 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...NWS Damage Survey For 3/19/18 Tornado Event--Update #3...

...EF-2 Tornado confirmed in Limestone County...

.Elkmont-Ardmore Tornado...

Rating:                 EF2
Estimated Peak Wind:    125 mph
Path Length /statute/:  23.54 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   350 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/19/2018
Start Time:             06:08 PM CDT
Start Location:         4 SW Lester / Limestone County / AL
Start Lat/Lon:          34.9572 / -87.2049

End Date:               03/19/2018
End Time:               06:46 PM CDT
End Location:           3 ESE Ardmore / Limestone County / AL
End Lat/Lon:            34.9589 / -86.7922

Summary: The tornado initially touched down just east of the
Lauderdale-Limestone county line near the intersection of Union
Hill Road and Shelton Road. Nearly all of the damage in northwest
Limestone County consisted of snapped or uprooted trees, in a
swath extending across Salem Minor Hill Road, Leggtown Road, and 
the Elk River. Significant tree damage was noted along Alabama
Highway 127 and Veto Road north of Elkmont, where likely hundreds
of trees were snapped or uprooted. It was in this area where the
tornado reached its maximum path width of 350 yards.

The tornado continued east-northeast, narrowly missing the Saturn
I rocket at the Alabama Welcome Center on Interstate 65.
Tree damage continued on Hardiman Lane east of I-65, but roof
damage also occurred to single-family homes. Similar damage was
observed on Puckett Lane and Oak Grove Road.

There is evidence (both from radar and ground surveys) to suggest
that the tornado had multiple vortices between Oak Grove Road and
Valley Drive, as there are two distinct damage paths in this
area. Again, much of the damage was to trees and roofs of single-
family and manufactured homes, as well as small sheds and barns.

The most severe damage by far occurred along Alabama Highway 251
and Gatlin Road, where one or two houses had their roofs and
roofing structures almost completely torn off, and several more
had most of their shingles torn off. Fortunately the residents
had taken shelter in a nearby basement and none were injured.

The tornado weakened quickly, snapping and uprooting trees as it
moved across Mitchell Loop, Old Schoolhouse Road, and Alabama
Highway 53. No evidence of damage was found east of Highway 53.

Damage in Madison County is associated with a separate tornado
that will be summarized in another statement.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 TO 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 TO 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200mph
EF5...Violent...>200mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

 

Advertisement