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Author Topic: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018  (Read 15543 times)

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Offline a1star93

Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #195 on: March 20, 2018, 08:36:46 AM »
All that may be true, but I see that as a problem with the public, not a problem with the forecast.  The public-at-large has an attitude problem, and if the outbreak had not been hyped, and it did occur, you can bet there would be h**l to pay.  I feel for meteorologists in today's socially saturated society.  You're danged if you do, and you're danged if you don't.  if I had pursued my desire to forecast weather in my youth, I would need a steady stream of valium to deal with the pure hateful, critical attitudes people sling around on social media these days.

You are correct, though, that forecasters need to better explain a missed outbreak when it does occur to prevent people from ignoring future forecasts.  Once they understand the "why", then maybe there won't be such an outcry from the public-at-large.  Or then again, maybe people just enjoy being angry all the time.

The thing about the public is, They will only hear what they want to hear.  Even if forcasters tried to explain the what ifs and what coulds, the public would just choose what they understand and forget the rest
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #196 on: March 20, 2018, 08:43:09 AM »
It was a bust in the sense, everyone knew and was talking about it yesterday (which is a good thing), schools over reacted and closed early (which then puts a burden on working parents) and nothing happened (which is becoming common place) and now most people (rightly or wrongly) are viewing it as the boy who cries wolf (which is obviously a bad thing). Worry becomes mocking on social media. The "could" and "would" need to be better explained to the public and schools need to chill out (most kids are probably safer in school hallways vs a typical home), because I worry it will soon start falling on deaf ears.

All that to say, we here understand the nuance, but the public views this as a huge bust. Another in a long line of severe busts. I worry about the ramifications of that.

This. Itís happened one too many times lately. When we have our next severe threat, expect the general public to take it with a grain of salt and not worry about. Honestly I canít blame them. Not to mention the whole marginal/slight/enhanced outlooks etc are a complete joke for the general public. Go read the Facebook comments...they donít understand and they donít care, and end up focusing on the color rather than forecast. ****, half these of these idiots canít even find themselves on a map WHEN ITS COLORED IN FOR THEM. Then you start wondering to yourself...ĒDo these people really need to be saved lol?Ē ::endofrant::

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #197 on: March 20, 2018, 08:50:34 AM »
The public-at-large has an attitude problem, and if the outbreak had not been hyped, and it did occur, you can bet there would be h**l to pay.

My favorite- "We had no warning!"  :'( :P

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #198 on: March 20, 2018, 10:06:03 AM »
I remember when the meaning of bust was blue skies or plain rain. Now if we don't have 5+ tornadoes its a bust... FML

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #199 on: March 20, 2018, 10:29:46 AM »
I remember when the meaning of bust was blue skies or plain rain. Now if we don't have 5+ tornadoes its a bust... FML
now that s. What a storm chaser mentality is ... bout way I feel bout it...

Post Merge: March 20, 2018, 10:33:50 AM
Like they say down at the gym... go big or go home...
« Last Edit: March 20, 2018, 10:33:50 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #200 on: March 20, 2018, 10:35:06 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #201 on: March 20, 2018, 10:48:57 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.
outstanding point... wonder if they let school out  April 3 1974.... forgot. I was old enough to remember that day ... and we didnít get out for that major event...
Come on severe wx season...

Online Charles L.

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #202 on: March 20, 2018, 11:10:01 AM »
I donít think I ever got out for severe wx, heck I remember one time we had to stay over an hour past closing due to the storms.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #203 on: March 20, 2018, 11:41:35 AM »
Social media is killing us. Twenty years ago, schools would've never considered closing early for a forecast like yesterday's...they probably wouldn't have considered it 10 years ago, either. But with the prolific use of social media, everybody is talking about a threat like that. In and of itself, that should be a good thing. But it causes severe overreaction and schools are pressured into closing for the smallest of threats now. It's ridiculous, frankly. As snowdog said, they need to chill.

I grew up (you probably did too) with tornado drills in school. We would practice going to the interior hallways and put our arms over heads and kneel down against the inner walls. I remember a couple of times doing it for real when there was a warning. Now, I guess that's all pre-empted by early dismissal, which in my view makes a much bigger target to disperse children to their homes all around the area where tornadoes can hit. I guess the only argument for it is to avoid having buses on the road when severe weather is hitting.

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #204 on: March 20, 2018, 11:50:37 AM »
outstanding point... wonder if they let school out  April 3 1974.... forgot. I was old enough to remember that day ... and we didnít get out for that major event...

They did not let school on Black Wed. the weather wasnt bad until late afternoon in south middle tn....then when it got bad it got BAD

Offline @NashSevereWx

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #205 on: March 20, 2018, 12:56:47 PM »
Each year for 20 consecutive years, I bought auto insurance. Why? Partially because it's the law, but I don't buy the minimum insurance to qualify as "legal," I get as much coverage as I need to protect my assets. I do this because there is a small risk I'll be in an accident, and if that accident is a bad one, I may have liability to someone else or I may suffer a big loss. So I buy the insurance so I do not have to shoulder the possibility of economic loss.

My risk assessment and risk tolerance informs my decision. Auto property and liability insurance has had value to me because it removed a financial risk and protected assets I am responsible to protect. It eliminated the impact of financial loss for a risk I'm exposed to, and I'm fully aware that risk is of a low probability, high impact scenario.

Yesterday, when decisions had to be made about canceling school, school systems were told the ETA for storms was 4 PM to 530 PM (for Middle TN). Decisionmakers were told by the expert risk analysis people storms would arrive during peak dismissal time. This is when the kids, who are in-transit, are most vulnerable. Thus the decision was made to not have kids riding home in buses, or home via mom or dad in a car, and/or walking to their home or apartment, when threatening storms were expected to arrive.

This left school systems with two options: hold the kids until the storm passes, or dismiss them early. (We can discuss these two options later, it's outside the scope of the point I'm trying to make). 

Thus school appreciated the risk to student safety, and they acted to eliminate the worst result and protect their biggest asset from greatest harm, which is the same reason I buy auto insurance.

Over those 20 years, I have been in 2 wrecks in two separate years. None of them my fault, so the insurance I paid for was not used. Those two years I got in a wreck, I'm not upset I paid for insurance I didn't end up needing. And those 18 years where I had no wrecks at all I wasn't at all upset or grumbling to family, friends, and social media followers that I paid to insure myself for a wreck that never happened.

Why? Because by buying insurance, or when schools cancel classes, you do it to eliminate the biggest risk to your most important asset. Ultimately, your obligation as a manger of family assets, or as the custodian of the safety of transported children, is to take reasonable steps to eliminate a health and safety risk even if -- and especially when -- that risk involves uncertainty.

Those criticizing that school closure decision often do so after the insurance term has expired. What they don't say is: "See, you weren't in a wreck this year, you over-reacted and wasted your money."

School cancellations are insurance decisions.
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Offline @NashSevereWx

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #206 on: March 20, 2018, 01:56:39 PM »
It's changed over the past 10 years because ETAs have improved due to modeling and computing advances.
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Offline Hank W

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #207 on: March 20, 2018, 06:57:10 PM »
I was on the Russellville storm yesterday in great position, but had to get out of the way because there was no visibility at all. Totally rain wrapped plus trees. But man that sky turned so so green. That is a phenomenon like no other. It was beautiful, and I wish my phone had captured it better. Tornadoes are devastating, but I think sometimes we need a reminder of the power of God. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

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Offline @NashSevereWx

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #208 on: March 21, 2018, 04:27:25 PM »
Today's a Code Turqoise!

It's a Channel 87 Weather Alert Day!

We're in Severe Weather Mode here at WZZA!

Maybe what we think is awareness, the public sees as hype.
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Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Threat, March 19, 2018
« Reply #209 on: March 21, 2018, 05:47:59 PM »
The Jacksonville, AL tornado ended up as an EF3, btw.

 

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