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Author Topic: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018  (Read 15501 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #75 on: February 23, 2018, 10:59:22 PM »


Lol.

Mississippi and most of Poinsett and Craighead counties are just as flat and treeless as the southern Delta, but otherwise spot on and hilarious.
I was going to add that you could include a green area about the  bootheel wide on up the river. Only problem is there is zero escape routes to the west.

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #76 on: February 23, 2018, 11:34:24 PM »
If your chasing in Arkansas I would also advise knowing what roads are closed due to flooding, and stay off backroads unless you know they are clear.  Lots of county roads are covered right now in the Delta

Post Merge: February 24, 2018, 12:02:07 AM


Post Merge: February 24, 2018, 12:03:58 AM
Quote
  Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
   ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI....A
   PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHEASTERN
   MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND A PORTION OF
   SOUTHERN INDIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
   AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN LOWER PLAINS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
   LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
   DAYBREAK SUNDAY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today through tonight
   across the Ark-La-Tex region, east northeastward through the lower
   Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.  These will be accompanied by
   potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, a couple of
   which could be strong.

   ...Discussion...
   Subtropical ridging centered near the south Atlantic coast continues
   to weaken, but appears likely to maintain a prominent influence
   across much of the Southeast through this period.  As it does, a
   vigorous and progressive short wave trough, now beginning to pivot
   northeast of the Four Corners region, is forecast to take on a
   negative tilt and accelerate northeastward through the Upper Midwest
   by 12Z Sunday, as another significant upstream short wave trough
   digs across the Great Basin.  At the same time, models indicate that
   a strong subtropical jet streak will nose across the Texas Big Bend
   region, toward the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valleys.

   In response to these developments, fairly strong surface
   cyclogenesis still seems probable across the central U.S. today
   through tonight.  There has been variability among the model output
   concerning the evolution, likely at least in part due to the slow
   erosion of a lingering shallow wedge of cold surface-based air over
   the southern Plains.  While the onset of more rapid deepening of the
   surface low  remains in question, it now seems most probable that
   surface frontal wave development will take shape over northeastern
   Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks by midday today, before deepening
   more rapidly while migrating northeastward, and eventually occluding
   over the Upper Midwest by early Sunday.

   Strengthening wind fields (to 50-70 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) and
   shear within a large portion of the developing warm sector will
   contribute to increasing severe weather potential ahead of a
   southeastward advancing cold front trailing from the surface
   cyclone, as southerly return flow off the northwestern Gulf of
   Mexico supports an influx of high moisture content air.  However,
   less than optimal thermodynamic profiles due to potential widespread
   convective development and cloud cover may temper this risk
   somewhat.  Regardless, severe thunderstorm development still seems
   probable across portions of the southeastern Plains into the Ozark
   Plateau by midday, before increasing across the lower Mississippi
   into lower Ohio Valleys late this afternoon and evening.

   ...Southern Plains into Ohio Valley...
   The rather broad western/northwestern gradient of severe
   probabilities is generally reflective of lingering uncertainty
   concerning the specific track of the surface cyclone and timing of
   its most rapid deepening.  The broad eastern/southeastern gradient
   generally reflects uncertainties associated with late night timing
   and the likelihood of progressively weaker warm sector instability.

   Severe weather potential still seems likely to become maximized
   across parts of southern and eastern Arkansas into adjacent portions
   of the lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon and evening, when/where
   it appears that forcing for ascent and strong shear profiles may
   best coincide with at least modest boundary layer instability (CAPE
   on the order of 500-1000 J/kg).  Substantive intensification of a
   pre-frontal squall line is expected during this period, and
   sustained discrete supercell development appears possible just ahead
   of the line.  In the presence of a moist boundary layer with surface
   dew points in the mid 60s F, rather large and clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs will support the risk for a few tornadoes.  One
   or two of these could potentially be long-lived/tracked and strong.
   Otherwise, damage wind gusts are expected to become the primary
   threat with the evolving line, which will spread across and east of
   the lower Mississippi Valley late this evening through the overnight
   hours.

   It still appears that the strong/severe thunderstorm development
   could commence near or shortly after day break today across parts of
   central and northwest Texas.  Aided by forcing for ascent associated
   with low-level warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent upper
   flow associated with coupling subtropical and polar jets, a sizable
   cluster of storms may evolve across the Red River Valley into parts
   of the Ozark Plateau through the midday/early afternoon hours.  This
   may mostly be rooted above lingering cold/stable surface-based air,
   with severe hail the primary hazard.  However, at some point this
   may become increasingly rooted within a destabilizing boundary layer
   across the Ark-La-Tex into the lower Mississippi Valley.  As alluded
   to earlier, this seems most probable across southern/eastern
   Arkansas and adjacent northern Louisiana late this afternoon.
   However, it is possible that a severe wind/tornado threat could
   commence earlier and to the west.

   ..Kerr/Leitman.. 02/24/2018
« Last Edit: February 24, 2018, 12:03:58 AM by memphishogfan, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Online BRUCE

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #77 on: February 24, 2018, 06:55:00 AM »
Getting nice breaks in the clouds already...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #78 on: February 24, 2018, 07:01:54 AM »
Storming here. Isolated one popedup.they expanded the watch to me too
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #79 on: February 24, 2018, 07:20:36 AM »
If your chasing in Arkansas I would also advise knowing what roads are closed due to flooding, and stay off backroads unless you know they are clear.  Lots of county roads are covered right now in the Delta

Good advice. I saw some images of flooding in AR and thought about this.



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Offline StormNine

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #80 on: February 24, 2018, 08:18:27 AM »
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Moderate to High Risk of Flooding for West TN and parts of NW Middle TN.  The HRRR wants to spit out 3-4 inches of rain in places this evening, which would be bad news due to our saturated soils and swollen rivers. 

Offline Hank W

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #81 on: February 24, 2018, 08:39:14 AM »
SPC notes that the crapvection/cloud cover will try to limit the daytime heating potential. Time to watch the radar and satellite to see if any clearing can take place.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #82 on: February 24, 2018, 08:58:10 AM »
SPC notes that the crapvection/cloud cover will try to limit the daytime heating potential. Time to watch the radar and satellite to see if any clearing can take place.
  Very low cloud deck with drizzle here. Struggling to warm here atm.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #83 on: February 24, 2018, 09:02:48 AM »
Sun been in out here. Current dp65
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #84 on: February 24, 2018, 09:17:42 AM »
Lots of convection in southern Arkansas moving this way and socked in clouds. Now- if the air mass in northern LA can make it up this way- which is probably will....

Offline StormNine

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #85 on: February 24, 2018, 09:33:41 AM »
The HRRR really socks NE AR, MO Boothill, far NW TN, and W/C KY with training storms and about 2-5 inches of rain that area doesn't need. 

Offline mempho

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #86 on: February 24, 2018, 09:36:49 AM »
SPC notes that the crapvection/cloud cover will try to limit the daytime heating potential. Time to watch the radar and satellite to see if any clearing can take place.
Wonderful and pithy translation of their discussion!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #87 on: February 24, 2018, 10:30:42 AM »
The HRRR really socks NE AR, MO Boothill, far NW TN, and W/C KY with training storms and about 2-5 inches of rain that area doesn't need.
No we do not.

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #88 on: February 24, 2018, 10:46:25 AM »
First TOR watch of the day being drawn up for parts of AR, TX, and maybe northwest LA.

Offline harlequin

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Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #89 on: February 24, 2018, 11:13:52 AM »
First TOR of the day for Scott County, AR.

Got caught in a torrential downpour while running. Very efficient rain rates.

 

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