* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018  (Read 13232 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline mamMATTus

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 804
  • Location: Donelson/Chattanooga
  • Geologist
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 74
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #45 on: February 22, 2018, 04:39:58 PM »
Well, Nashville and most of middle TN are officially in the slight category. What a perfect day for SWAD...canít decide if I wanna go to that or maybe go chase lol.

Online BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,044
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1102
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #46 on: February 22, 2018, 06:10:09 PM »
appears the 3km  nam is picking up a broken line of storms in central arkansas with some embedded super cells amongst the broken line as it moves towards the ms river late saturday afternoon evening.   tried to paste but  o well :)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 351
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #47 on: February 22, 2018, 08:48:37 PM »
Last post merged funny.....

0z NAM 3km rollling. Here is downtown Memphis Saturday afternoon [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline Hank W

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
  • Location: Germantown, TN
  • Romans 8:28
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 639
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #48 on: February 23, 2018, 01:25:21 AM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
Quote
Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and
   move east-northeastward on Saturday from parts of northeast Texas
   into the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Tornadoes,
   wind damage and hail will be possible with the more intense storms.

   ...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...
   An upper-level trough will move from the Rockies into the Great
   Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in
   place at the start of the period from East Texas extending
   northeastward into southern parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.
   Elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of
   Dallas/Fort Worth around 12Z. This convection is forecast to expand
   in coverage, moving eastward into the Arklatex where a 40 to 60 kt
   low-level jet will strengthen. As surface temperatures warm during
   the day, the convection is forecast to gradually become
   surface-based. A cluster of storms should become organized as it
   moves east-northeastward from far northeast Texas across southern
   and eastern Arkansas during the afternoon. This activity should
   eventually affect northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far
   western Kentucky by evening.

   Ahead of the system moving into the Great Plains, a 75 to 90 kt
   mid-level jet will translate east-northeastward from the southern
   Plains into the Ozarks. This feature will create strong deep-layer
   shear profiles favorable for severe storms along the southeastern
   periphery of the mid-level jet. Strong lift and 0-6 km shear in the
   55 to 65 kt range, evident on forecast soundings, will support
   supercell development. Supercells that interact with the western
   edge of the low-level jet from far northeast Texas into southern and
   central Arkansas will have tornado potential. NAM forecast soundings
   across southern Arkansas at 21Z on Saturday show 0-3 km storm
   relative helicities near 300 m2/s2 which should be favorable for a
   few strong tornadoes. Supercells and the stronger multicells
   embedded in the cluster should also be associated with wind damage
   and hail. The wind damage threat could increase as the cluster
   transitions into a line segment, moving eastward from eastern
   Arkansas into northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far
   western Kentucky by Saturday evening.

   ..Broyles.. 02/23/2018

Offline memphishogfan

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 212
  • Location: Manila, AR
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #49 on: February 23, 2018, 09:24:21 AM »
Last post merged funny.....

0z NAM 3km rollling. Here is downtown Memphis Saturday afternoon (Attachment Link)



Offline @NashSevereWx

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 363
  • Location: Davidson & Williamson Counties
    • @NashSevereWx
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #50 on: February 23, 2018, 09:45:20 AM »
EURO tanks CAPE after 6z along the I-65 corridor, another classic low CAPE high shear nocturnal winter event.

Friends in W TN, egad. Day 2 hatched. PLenty of CAPE and the shear is  ::bacon:: NAM3 breaking discrete supercells ahead of the QLCS. No AM crapvection. Saturated grounds will encourage tree falls even without TORs. CIPS site is slow, never a good sign, tho of the top 16 analogs, most are meh, tho #6 is Super Tuesday, and the top analog doesn't have SPC reports data.
Nowcasting Severe Weather
Davidson & Williamson Counties
@NashSevereWx on Twitter
NashSevereWx.com on the web

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 351
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #51 on: February 23, 2018, 09:55:32 AM »
NAM is hinting at cloud breaks over the AR/MS delta on Saturday with very little crapvection to stabilize anything. These storms will be typical Mid South storms that are fast moving and HP when mature.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 10:06:34 AM by wfrogge »

Offline bugalou

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,062
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 83
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #52 on: February 23, 2018, 12:16:36 PM »
Last post merged funny.....

0z NAM 3km rollling. Here is downtown Memphis Saturday afternoon (Attachment Link)

Yipes.  That looks menacing.

I might have to setup my mini command center and clear out our shelter closet.  Haven't done that since super Tuesday!
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 12:24:19 PM by bugalou »

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 351
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #53 on: February 23, 2018, 12:31:49 PM »
New day 2 from the SPC.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

SPC AC 231728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
   TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS TO THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the southern
   Plains Saturday morning and shift northeastward towards the Ohio
   Valley through Saturday night. Several of these storms will likely
   be severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary
   threat. A few instances of large hail will be possible as well.

   ...Synopsis...
   Within a cyclonic-flow regime across the western US, a robust
   shortwave trough will eject northeast across the central Plains,
   while acquiring a negative tilt as it approaches the upper Midwest.
   In response, mid-level heights will fall over much of the Plains and
   Mississippi Valley through the day. The surface pattern will feature
   a deepening low lifting north from the Mississippi Valley towards
   the upper Great Lakes. Trailing to its south, a cold front will
   accelerate eastward towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, while
   the preceding warm sector advances northward from the Mid-South to
   portions of southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

   ...Arklatex to the Ohio Valley...
   As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues northeast towards
   the upper Midwest, a strong low-level jet is forecast to organize
   across the Arklatex through the mid-day hours, before strengthening
   and translating northeast towards the Ohio Valley through the
   overnight hours. In conjunction with this evolution, the surface
   warm sector (characterized by dew points in the lower/mid 60s along
   its northern fringes) will stream northward, reaching areas from
   southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana through the period. South
   of the warm front, despite little/modest low-level heating and
   related buoyancy, favorably moist low levels should support upwards
   of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of the Mid-South by afternoon,
   with values decreasing to 200-400 J/kg across the Ohio Valley.

   Countering these lower values of buoyancy, a strong kinematic
   profile will evolve across much of the region, especially from
   northern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley. Within this region,
   925-850mb flow around 60-70 kt will contribute to sizable values of
   storm-relative helicity through the evening hours. In turn, as a
   narrow band of convection organizes from the Arklatex to the Ozarks
   through the day, shear profiles should encourage several bowing/LEWP
   structures, with embedded supercells possible. Furthermore, forecast
   soundings and high-res guidance depict a considerable component of
   low-level shear perpendicular to several bowing segments, enhancing
   the potential for tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong --
   during the afternoon and evening hours. These cells will then race
   towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and
   overnight. Moist adiabatic low-level profiles, while not conducive
   for high values of buoyancy, may still prove favorable for a few
   swaths of damaging winds (with an attendant line-embedded tornado
   threat), as any low-level rotating elements will enhance upward
   vertical motion and convective intensity.

   Outside of the main band of convection, although forcing for ascent
   will not be particularly strong earlier in the day, an isolated
   discrete supercell or two may form across the Mid-South within
   warm/moist low-level confluence Saturday afternoon. Favorable
   storm-relative helicity and effective shear would support a
   conditional damaging wind and tornado threat during this time frame
   as well.

   ..Picca.. 02/23/2018

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 569
  • Location: Dresden, DE
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 407
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #54 on: February 23, 2018, 04:36:32 PM »
Wow... the forecast for West TN is lighting up

Offline Hunter_McDonald

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 188
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #55 on: February 23, 2018, 04:57:14 PM »
Thinking about trying to chase tomorrow since my wife is throwing a baby shower for her sister and Iím getting kicked out of the house anyone near MEM chasing? Where should I try to go?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Online BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,044
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1102
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #56 on: February 23, 2018, 05:03:41 PM »
Thinking about trying to chase tomorrow since my wife is throwing a baby shower for her sister and Iím getting kicked out of the house anyone near MEM chasing? Where should I try to go?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
think frogge going   I have to work blah... but I wonít get much done... I would stray out toward pine bluff ark. Work you way back east
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 351
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #57 on: February 23, 2018, 05:21:17 PM »
Thinking about trying to chase tomorrow since my wife is throwing a baby shower for her sister and Iím getting kicked out of the house anyone near MEM chasing? Where should I try to go?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am chasing. Target for now is Pine Bluff Arkansas

Offline Hunter_McDonald

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 188
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #58 on: February 23, 2018, 05:22:25 PM »
Well I may head over there then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Hunter_McDonald

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 188
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Flooding and Possible Strong to Severe Storms in Late February 2018
« Reply #59 on: February 23, 2018, 05:23:44 PM »
I am chasing. Target for now is Pine Bluff Arkansas

Well thatís where Iíll head then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Advertisement