* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Spring 2018  (Read 37222 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 569
  • Location: Dresden, DE
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 405
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #450 on: May 05, 2018, 02:35:09 PM »
We look above to well above average in the long range. Way too warm for any severe weather at our latitude. This might make for a strong severe pattern in the Upper Midwest instead.

I think we are out of the woods.

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,068
  • Location: MTSU by day, LaVergne by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 863
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #451 on: May 05, 2018, 09:20:14 PM »
Has severe season passed is by at this point? Donít really see anything in the long range.

Best not let Bruce hear you say that.  He may want to fight ya.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Montgomery Cos. (@MontCoSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Box 100 Wx Lead Forecaster
Lavergne, TN

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,043
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1101
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #452 on: May 06, 2018, 05:45:26 AM »
Best not let Bruce hear you say that.  He may want to fight ya.
lol... I am over it now... yeah the jet stream moving fairly north of us now....  what is severe weather season anymore? Lol....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,538
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #453 on: May 06, 2018, 06:45:29 AM »
Noticed that 20 pct pops had been added for a thunderstorm chance this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

OHX had this in their AFD:

Quote
Off the Atlantic seaboard, a big blocking high
pressure system is keeping that upper trough over the eastern U.S.
Because of this, we are likely to see some of the effects of a
shortwave trough rounding the backside of the larger pattern.  This
wave is expected to bring a few showers and maybe even some
thunderstorms into Middle TN late this afternoon and into the
evening hours.  Forecast soundings are showing plenty of surface
based CAPE and dry air aloft, but being on the backside of this
trough, shear is greatly lacking.  Organization should be minimal,
but I can`t rule out a strong storm or two as storms push in from
the north. Keep this in mind if you`re going to be out and about
late this afternoon.  Main concerns will be gusty winds and possibly
some small hail as mid-level lapse rates are decent. Monday could
bring another shot at the same, with better chances south of I-40
and closer to the Alabama state line. While the upper trough
hangs around the east coast Tuesday as that blocking high hold
firm, it should be far enough away where we stay dry.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline JayCee

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,736
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 773
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #454 on: May 06, 2018, 01:35:58 PM »
Had a decent thunderstorm in the middle of the night dropping about a half inch of rain.  Finally washed a lot of the green pollen residue off of everything.  Now it's a perfect Sunday afternoon with blue skies and comfortable 70's with a breeze. 

Spring severe may be passed, but don't discount MCS/MCC "season"nearly upon us.  June-July can be pretty active depending on where the summer time heat ridge sets up over the U.S.   

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=MCC
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,538
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #455 on: May 06, 2018, 02:56:37 PM »
SVRs are popping over western KY- cells moving SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,538
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 5
Spring 2018
« Reply #456 on: May 06, 2018, 04:19:22 PM »
Pretty good coverage of storms in NW Mid TN now. Lightning map is, well, lighting up... I think a good number may see some rumbles and downpours between now and into the evening.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Skillsweather

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,877
  • Location: Lebanon-Tn-North eastern part of Wilson County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 240
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #457 on: May 06, 2018, 04:43:12 PM »
Outside looking in yet again for me. I miss the old spring type weather its like a summer time pattern right now with spring temps.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,538
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 5
Spring 2018
« Reply #458 on: May 06, 2018, 04:45:58 PM »
This activity has congealed into a pretty good line of storms encroaching the I-40 corridor toward Nashville.

A few pop up cells out ahead of it too.

Cells near Fairview might contain hail


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 569
  • Location: Dresden, DE
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 405
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #459 on: May 06, 2018, 06:23:55 PM »
NOAA's April summary for Knoxville:

Quote
000
CXUS54 KMRX 011501
CLMTYS


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...................................

...THE KNOXVILLE    ASOS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2018

WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM
                                          NORMAL
............................................ ....
TEMPERATURE (F)
HIGHEST            81   04/14
                        04/13
LOWEST             31   04/08
AVG. MAXIMUM     67.2              70.3    -3.1
AVG. MINIMUM     43.9              47.3    -3.4
MEAN             55.5              58.8    -3.3

DAYS MAX >= 90      0
DAYS MAX <= 32      0
DAYS MIN <= 32      2
DAYS MIN <= 0       0

PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
 MAXIMUM        17.62   1874
 MINIMUM         0.39   1976
TOTALS           4.28              4.01    0.27
DAYS >= .01        13
DAYS >= .10         7
DAYS >= .50         4
DAYS >= 1.00        0
GREATEST
 24 HR. TOTAL    0.84   04/15 TO 04/15

SNOWFALL (INCHES)
TOTALS              T               0.5    -0.5
SINCE 7/1         2.6
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      0
DAYS >= TRACE       1
GREATEST
 SNOW DEPTH         0   MM

DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL     288               218      70
 SINCE 7/1       3526              3575     -49
COOLING TOTAL      12                32     -20
 SINCE 1/1         34                37      -3
............................................ .....



-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,030
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #460 on: May 08, 2018, 01:52:28 PM »
I see that in typical TN fashion, winter held on for 1.5 months too long, we had 2 weeks of spring, and now it is summer. GFS calling for 95 at KCHA next Monday. Ugh.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,043
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1101
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #461 on: May 08, 2018, 02:31:51 PM »
I see that in typical TN fashion, winter held on for 1.5 months too long, we had 2 weeks of spring, and now it is summer. GFS calling for 95 at KCHA next Monday. Ugh.
yeah finally warmer weather  ...
Come on severe wx season...

Online mempho

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,593
  • Location: Collierville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #462 on: May 09, 2018, 04:22:53 PM »
yeah finally warmer weather  ...

Be careful what you wish for....


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline JayCee

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,736
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 773
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #463 on: May 09, 2018, 08:00:57 PM »
GFS is showing the season's first tropical system in the Gulf around May 20.  Skipped over tornado season to go straight into hurricane season. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,152
  • Location: Memfizz
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #464 on: May 09, 2018, 09:40:58 PM »
KMEM holding onto 80 through the 9 o'clock hour.  ::shaking_finger::

 

Advertisement