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Author Topic: Spring 2018  (Read 49145 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #90 on: March 15, 2018, 09:12:08 AM »
Euro and GFS agree on one thing--wet, wet, wet for next 30-45 days.  Winter & Spring are at war, and the battlefront seems to be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the foreseeable future.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bouts of severe weather as the contrast in temperatures north to south becomes more pronounced.
yeh.  I take that look at 240 on last nites 0.
Z euro any day .... that holds up.. something big coming out that pattern... plenty moisture return from gulf and even Caribbean origin ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #91 on: March 15, 2018, 09:46:24 AM »
No surprise--all the dryness and drought over the mid-south and Tennessee is gone.  However, the southern plains drought is only getting worse, and if long range outlooks are correct, they may be in for a long, hot & dry summer, similar to 2012. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Tennessee was on the eastern edge of the hot dome of high pressure that year, but we didn't escape the heat--it spread eastward as the summer progressed.  West TN became dry, while eastern TN was on very edge of the "ring of fire," and had several bouts of intense, damaging storms in July that kept the dryness at bay.  The extreme heat that year energized the intense, damaging derecho that hit Ohio and West Virginia in June.  It actually made it all the way to the east coast!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho
« Last Edit: March 15, 2018, 09:47:56 AM by JayCee »
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #92 on: March 15, 2018, 11:32:15 AM »
Don't forget a lot of locations in Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley have their all-time record highs set in late June/early July of 2012, such as BNA at 109 and MQY at 113, unofficially.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #93 on: March 15, 2018, 01:31:24 PM »
No surprise--all the dryness and drought over the mid-south and Tennessee is gone.  However, the southern plains drought is only getting worse, and if long range outlooks are correct, they may be in for a long, hot & dry summer, similar to 2012. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Tennessee was on the eastern edge of the hot dome of high pressure that year, but we didn't escape the heat--it spread eastward as the summer progressed.  West TN became dry, while eastern TN was on very edge of the "ring of fire," and had several bouts of intense, damaging storms in July that kept the dryness at bay.  The extreme heat that year energized the intense, damaging derecho that hit Ohio and West Virginia in June.  It actually made it all the way to the east coast!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho

Drought map looks a lot like March 2012. That was just a brutal start to summer that year. I'd rather not do that one over again.  ::hot::

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #94 on: March 16, 2018, 08:24:20 AM »
Worth a mention for Monday...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2018/day4-8_20180316.html



Quote
   On Monday Day 4, a cold front is forecast to stretch roughly from
   middle TN southward across MS by 00Z Tuesday, continuing eastward
   across AL and into GA by Tuesday morning. A warm front will also
   lift north across the region, stretching from northern AL into
   central GA at 00Z. Dewpoints in the 60s F and cool midlevel
   temperatures will result in around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, with strong
   deep-layer shear profiles supporting organized convection. Low-level
   shear will be maximized near the warm front, and forecast wind
   profiles do support supercells. Conditional on storm mode, a tornado
   threat may exist. The northern threat into TN will depend on
   instability, but otherwise the synoptic setup appears most favorable
   there.
To the south, instability will be much greater and one or
   more clusters of storms are expected to spread across AL and GA with
   damaging winds likely given strong mean wind profiles.

Offline andyhb

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #95 on: March 16, 2018, 12:51:04 PM »
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #96 on: March 16, 2018, 12:53:42 PM »
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.
first thought to me looks messy to me. Junk convection .... waiting euro
Come on severe wx season...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #97 on: March 16, 2018, 01:08:16 PM »
Don't forget a lot of locations in Middle Tennessee and the Ohio Valley have their all-time record highs set in late June/early July of 2012, such as BNA at 109 and MQY at 113, unofficially.
Chattanooga also set theirs at 107 the same day that Nashville hit 109. My car thermometer was reading 111 while I was going 50 mph. If I remember correctly that was driven by extreme subsidence due to a tropical system passing to our SE.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #98 on: March 17, 2018, 04:18:00 AM »
Storming out. So so nice. Pea dize hail low wind but very heavy rain.... Lots of negative lightining as well.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2018, 04:33:45 AM by Skillsweather »
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #99 on: March 17, 2018, 05:59:12 AM »

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #100 on: March 17, 2018, 07:10:05 AM »
Day three hatched slight risk - future upgrade appears likely once predictability is better.

Seems like we’ve got a live one... where is Bruce?

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #101 on: March 17, 2018, 10:04:04 AM »
Just a few light showers this morning, and now skies have cleared and a beautiful spring-like day appears to be in store before possibly strong storms develop late in the day.  Blue sky never looked so good. 

Post Merge: March 17, 2018, 03:55:49 PM
Severe thunderstorm watch for a chunk of eastern TN...

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0010.html

Quote
RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 10
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   430 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Central and Eastern Kentucky
     Far Western North Carolina
     Northern and Eastern Tennessee
     Far Western Virginia
     Far Southern West Virginia

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 430 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms including supercells will continue to
   increase through late afternoon especially across central/eastern
   Kentucky, with somewhat more isolated development expected southward
   into Tennessee. Bouts of severe hail will be common with the most
   intense storms, while damaging winds can also be expected,
   especially if a semi-organized linear system evolves by early
   evening toward the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of London
   KY to 35 miles east northeast of Bristol TN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
« Last Edit: March 17, 2018, 03:55:49 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline Eric

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #102 on: March 17, 2018, 04:44:48 PM »
The threat on Monday is definitely beginning to catch my attention. There are certainly some caveats especially further north into TN, but the 500 mb trough itself says there's a good chance for trouble. Has some 4/10/2009 vibes to it.

Will have more on this later.

Good Friday outbreak?  No thanks.  Murfreesboro doesnt need another EF4.  Neither does anybody else.
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Box 100 Wx Lead Forecaster
Lavergne, TN

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #103 on: March 17, 2018, 05:26:13 PM »
So many outflows or whatever all around Mid tn. Wow. I hope i can get another storm maybe but i think im to far west. Mondays event looks to mainly stay below Tn Border. And below I-40. But we will see. This mornings storms got me so pumped for springtime storms though.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #104 on: March 17, 2018, 05:29:11 PM »
MEG

Quote
By Monday morning, much of the Mid-South is expected to be in the
warm sector of a 997 mb surface low, characterized by low 60s
dewpoints and backed winds. The surface low will quickly traverse
from the Arkansas and Oklahoma border to the Missouri Bootheel by
early afternoon and swing a cold front through the entire Mid-
South by early afternoon. All models generate quite a bit of
instability over northeast Mississippi and portions of West
Tennessee with SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, LIs around -4C,
and 60 knots of deep layer shear. 500mb height falls look to be
around 40 meters over the area, which should support robust
updrafts containing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two. The best risk of severe weather will likely be to
the east of our forecast area, but northeast Mississippi and
portions of West Tennessee could see at least a few severe storms.
If any storms can get going ahead of the main front, storm mode
would likely by supercellular with a large hail and tornado risk.
The most likely storm mode with be multi-cellular with a damaging
wind threat. The details are still a little unclear, as the speed
of the system has accelerated with each new model run, and the
shortwave acquires more of a neutral tilt over our area. Timing
issues may limit the amount of daytime heating to realize the
instability needed in our area to support severe thunderstorm
development. Nonetheless, at least a few strong to severe storms
are possible over the eastern half of the forecast area. Will
continue to mention large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes with a focus placed on the eastern half of the area.

 

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