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Author Topic: Spring 2018  (Read 43657 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #75 on: March 11, 2018, 06:36:09 AM »
Bruce, you are slipping. The Euro is showing a concerning look first of next week. Something to keep an eye on.



Post Merge: March 11, 2018, 06:49:21 AM
Maybe a couple days of severe potential. Massive warm sector.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 06:49:22 AM by Dyersburg Weather, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #76 on: March 11, 2018, 07:23:38 AM »
Bruce, you are slipping. The Euro is showing a concerning look first of next week. Something to keep an eye on.



Post Merge: March 11, 2018, 06:49:21 AM
Maybe a couple days of severe potential. Massive warm sector.


i been on a special night shift last two nights ... seen the euro. Iím trying to do better holding back.  Yes got my attention. Thank s for posting this
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #77 on: March 11, 2018, 08:04:34 AM »
Latest CFSv2 is coming around to another wet month in April for the OH and TN Valleys. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif

Also looks warmer than March, especially along the Gulf Coast, so stormy times could be ahead as we had into peak severe weather season. 


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #78 on: March 11, 2018, 09:54:02 AM »
Latest CFSv2 is coming around to another wet month in April for the OH and TN Valleys. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20180311.201804.gif

Also looks warmer than March, especially along the Gulf Coast, so stormy times could be ahead as we had into peak severe weather season.
thats. Good sign. Ike severe wx.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #79 on: March 11, 2018, 12:17:16 PM »
thats. Good sign. Ike severe wx.
Heck yeah i love storms also i really dislike boring spring time because thats the only thing i love about spring is the storms. And next season is the worst boring summer.. So we definitely need a good active spring or ill go insane! haha
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2018, 06:31:57 AM »
this coming weekend into this time next week... has has most certainly caught my attention for sure... with latest model data.... i leave it at that for now... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2018, 09:49:30 AM »
At least, it looks warmer for the weekend with springlike showers and storms.

Quote
   Threat of deep convection will begin increasing from the Arklatex
   into the TN Valley during the day5-6 time frame. However, timing of
   individual short waves will prove extremely difficult as
   ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian exhibit different solutions to the break
   down of the Plains ridge late in the week. While model differences
   will certainly extend into early next week, Plains ridge should
   progress into the MS Valley by day8. If this occurs there is some
   concern organized severe may ultimately materialize across the
   southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Will not introduce 15% severe probs
   given the uncertainty but this scenario will be monitored closely.

   ..Darrow.. 03/12/2018

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #82 on: March 12, 2018, 09:54:10 AM »
One thing appears certain, the rain train has no intention of moving somewhere else anytime soon.  Looks like a very wet couple of weeks ahead.  In any event, I'll be glad to have some milder weather this coming weekend.  If it ain't gonna snow, bring on some warmer weather.  I've got a ton of work to do around the house. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2018, 04:50:42 PM »
One thing appears certain, the rain train has no intention of moving somewhere else anytime soon.  Looks like a very wet couple of weeks ahead.  In any event, I'll be glad to have some milder weather this coming weekend.  If it ain't gonna snow, bring on some warmer weather.  I've got a ton of work to do around the house.
I was just about to post that the GFS is extraordinarily wet in the long range. March looks like a repeat of February in that regard.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2018, 05:02:41 PM »
I was just about to post that the GFS is extraordinarily wet in the long range. March looks like a repeat of February in that regard.
Pics of projected rainfall totals please i love rain
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #85 on: March 12, 2018, 08:30:07 PM »
Pics of projected rainfall totals please i love rain
Itís already flopped back to normal rainfall amounts with the next run. It was showing 8-10Ē across the I-24 corridor, but now itís back to 2-3Ē through 240 hrs.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2018, 04:21:30 AM »
SPC has a day 4 threat ... covering mostly Arkansas ....
Come on severe wx season...

Online BRUCE

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #87 on: March 15, 2018, 06:27:50 AM »
SPC now includes portion sw tn slight risk tomorrow .. nothing huge ... but itís a start ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #88 on: March 15, 2018, 07:19:25 AM »
Overnight Friday night looks interesting to me for East Ark and West Tn according to the Euro.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #89 on: March 15, 2018, 08:22:21 AM »
Euro and GFS agree on one thing--wet, wet, wet for next 30-45 days.  Winter & Spring are at war, and the battlefront seems to be right over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for the foreseeable future.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bouts of severe weather as the contrast in temperatures north to south becomes more pronounced. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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