* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Spring 2018  (Read 31461 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Crockett

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,041
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2018, 09:29:27 PM »
Less than a page into the spring thread and we're already fighting over what's gonna happen.  ::rofl::

Offline mamMATTus

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 799
  • Location: Donelson/Chattanooga
  • Geologist
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 73
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2018, 10:28:01 PM »
Yeah, I cant wait for a Tornado or Severe IMBY. I hope we are in the sweet zone for destruction and death. ::pondering::

Yep, I stopped worrying and feeling bad about that once it set in that I'm a human being with thoughts and feelings that have zero effect on the atmosphere. Nature does what it wants.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,574
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2018, 10:29:23 PM »
My preliminary call is for an average year maybe slightly above-average for severe weather for our neck of the words (KY, TN, N MS, N AL, surrounding areas).  Meaning either one bigger event or a few smaller-moderate ones.  Nationally, I think 2018 will be below average with the traditional tornado alley having a calmer than normal severe weather season (+PNA and the tendency for ridging in the Western/Central USA). 

Just like winter weather, very rarely do two consecutive springs with a similar ENSO pattern or ENSO transition pattern behave the same. 

Nationally, the years of 1918, 2000, 2009, and 2012 were significantly calmer than the previous La-Nina spring and were calmer than normal tornado wise.  It should be noted that 2000, 2009, and 2012 were decently active in our area, even though they were tame nation-wide and especially in the Plains. 

Four is not a good sample size at all, but I want to show that things are a lot more complicated than Weakening La Nina = Active Severe Weather Year.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,964
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1216
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2018, 10:43:07 PM »
Good write up StormNine. A good realistic summary.

Offline JayCee

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,713
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 763
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2018, 06:50:17 AM »
I have to admit, I don't dislike the Sun appearing earlier and disappearing later these days. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Crockett

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,041
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2018, 08:56:39 AM »
Everyone is so uptight and tense because we're seeing so much boring weather. I fear the only thing that's going to improve everyone's mood is if we get a blizzard that dumps 18" of snow from Memphis to Mountain City, followed by an EF5 tornado that wipes Bruce's house off the map.

(Sorry, Bruce's neighbors...)

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,030
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1097
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2018, 09:21:46 AM »
My preliminary call is for an average year maybe slightly above-average for severe weather for our neck of the words (KY, TN, N MS, N AL, surrounding areas).  Meaning either one bigger event or a few smaller-moderate ones.  Nationally, I think 2018 will be below average with the traditional tornado alley having a calmer than normal severe weather season (+PNA and the tendency for ridging in the Western/Central USA). 

Just like winter weather, very rarely do two consecutive springs with a similar ENSO pattern or ENSO transition pattern behave the same. 

Nationally, the years of 1918, 2000, 2009, and 2012 were significantly calmer than the previous La-Nina spring and were calmer than normal tornado wise.  It should be noted that 2000, 2009, and 2012 were decently active in our area, even though they were tame nation-wide and especially in the Plains. 

Four is not a good sample size at all, but I want to show that things are a lot more complicated than Weakening La Nina = Active Severe Weather Year.
great report. I agree. With at least slightly above severe season also ‘
Come on severe wx season...

Offline AdamLewis

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 16
  • Location: Cleveland, TN
  • Here to learn...
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2018, 09:25:07 AM »
I refuse to read this thread until at least March 1st.   ::rofl::

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,574
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #23 on: February 05, 2018, 10:12:29 AM »
Everyone is so uptight and tense because we're seeing so much boring weather. I fear the only thing that's going to improve everyone's mood is if we get a blizzard that dumps 18" of snow from Memphis to Mountain City, followed by an EF5 tornado that wipes Bruce's house off the map.

(Sorry, Bruce's neighbors...)

We should spend our time creating a cheesy Sci-Fi story/movie where those occur in the same event while we are tracking this boring weather.  We can call it Blizznado or Supercell Snow or something chessy like that.   

Post Merge: February 05, 2018, 10:13:32 AM
Today is the 10th year anniversary of the Super Tuesday Outbreak. 

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 350
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #24 on: February 05, 2018, 10:53:35 AM »
I remember once as a kid leaving my grandparents house in Smithville that the tornado sirens were going off and by the time we got to Nashville there was at least 4 inches of snow on the interstate.  Of course by the time we made it back to Memphis there was no snow, just cold air and blue skies.

Offline harlequin

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,150
  • Location: Memfizz
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 516
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2018, 08:53:21 PM »
I didn't see this posted anywhere, but I realized just a bit ago that's it's the 10th anniversary of the Super Tuesday Outbreak. It's always hard to believe time has passed, but man, I can't believe I was a junior in HS a decade ago. Also, while we don't have a truly memorable weather event every season, we've had a number of events since then that I will always remember.



« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 08:55:25 PM by harlequin »

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,574
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2018, 09:22:43 PM »
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1018.0.html

There is the thread about Super Tuesday. 

Offline andyhb

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 703
  • Location:
  • Tornado/Severe Weather Connoisseur Since Age 3
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #27 on: February 06, 2018, 12:24:54 AM »
Figured I'd come out of the proverbial woodwork to link to a couple of things I put together in Python for the decadal anniversary of Super Tuesday '08 (read: shameless plugging). Oh and I hope all is well here of course.

A look from four separate radars (KLZK, KNQA, KOHX and KBMX) during different time intervals capturing the outbreak's evolution.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960567295511748608

21 hour RUC analyzed 500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb and surface loop from 18z 2/5/08 to 15z 2/6/08.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960646262616813568

Tracking reflectivity/velocity loop of the supercell that produced the deadly EF4 tornado that moved through Atkins, Clinton and Mountain View, AR. Longest tracked AR tornado on record (122 miles).
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960739280627802112
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline snowdog

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,115
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2018, 09:08:49 AM »
Figured I'd come out of the proverbial woodwork to link to a couple of things I put together in Python for the decadal anniversary of Super Tuesday '08 (read: shameless plugging). Oh and I hope all is well here of course.

A look from four separate radars (KLZK, KNQA, KOHX and KBMX) during different time intervals capturing the outbreak's evolution.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960567295511748608

21 hour RUC analyzed 500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb and surface loop from 18z 2/5/08 to 15z 2/6/08.
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960646262616813568

Tracking reflectivity/velocity loop of the supercell that produced the deadly EF4 tornado that moved through Atkins, Clinton and Mountain View, AR. Longest tracked AR tornado on record (122 miles).
https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960739280627802112

When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.

Offline JHart

  • TNWX Supporter
  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ******
  • Posts: 357
  • Location: Lascassas (NE Rutherford County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Spring 2018
« Reply #29 on: February 06, 2018, 09:22:33 AM »
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.
Oooh, I smell an Emmy... at least I think that's what I'm smelling.
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

 

* Recent Posts

Spring 2018
by mempho
[Today at 04:34:09 AM]
BEMIS, TN --Historical Weather Facts, Climate Data, and Rainfall
by Mr. William E. Brantley
[Today at 03:22:19 AM]
Summer (Cancel) 2018
by BRUCE
[Yesterday at 12:46:29 PM]
Hawaii Volcanic Eruption
by Jilly
[May 16, 2018, 07:03:21 PM]
15 Years Ago: The Great Tornado Sequence of 2003
by Jilly
[May 15, 2018, 09:39:22 AM]

Advertisement