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Yeah, I cant wait for a Tornado or Severe IMBY. I hope we are in the sweet zone for destruction and death.
My preliminary call is for an average year maybe slightly above-average for severe weather for our neck of the words (KY, TN, N MS, N AL, surrounding areas). Meaning either one bigger event or a few smaller-moderate ones. Nationally, I think 2018 will be below average with the traditional tornado alley having a calmer than normal severe weather season (+PNA and the tendency for ridging in the Western/Central USA). Just like winter weather, very rarely do two consecutive springs with a similar ENSO pattern or ENSO transition pattern behave the same. Nationally, the years of 1918, 2000, 2009, and 2012 were significantly calmer than the previous La-Nina spring and were calmer than normal tornado wise. It should be noted that 2000, 2009, and 2012 were decently active in our area, even though they were tame nation-wide and especially in the Plains. Four is not a good sample size at all, but I want to show that things are a lot more complicated than Weakening La Nina = Active Severe Weather Year.
Everyone is so uptight and tense because we're seeing so much boring weather. I fear the only thing that's going to improve everyone's mood is if we get a blizzard that dumps 18" of snow from Memphis to Mountain City, followed by an EF5 tornado that wipes Bruce's house off the map. (Sorry, Bruce's neighbors...)
Figured I'd come out of the proverbial woodwork to link to a couple of things I put together in Python for the decadal anniversary of Super Tuesday '08 (read: shameless plugging). Oh and I hope all is well here of course.A look from four separate radars (KLZK, KNQA, KOHX and KBMX) during different time intervals capturing the outbreak's evolution.https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/96056729551174860821 hour RUC analyzed 500 mb, 700 mb, 850 mb and surface loop from 18z 2/5/08 to 15z 2/6/08.https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960646262616813568Tracking reflectivity/velocity loop of the supercell that produced the deadly EF4 tornado that moved through Atkins, Clinton and Mountain View, AR. Longest tracked AR tornado on record (122 miles).https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/960739280627802112
When are we going to get you and Bruce hooked up for a Storm Chase? I'd still like to produce a few episodes of that.