January 15th - 16th Snow

[JayCee]

BS  Like what you told me a month ago, you will be checking them again by noon tomorrow

Geez...you young peoples and your good memories.   

[schneitzeit]

I'm hoping we can pick up a couple inches in the East.

[Clarksville Snowman]

Took off from model watching today to enjoy the snow win. Looking at the snow tonight it's saying to me it's ready for fresh coat. Time to start eyeing Monday. Let's bring another round home folks. Area wide power this time!
Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 11:31:41 PM

Um 1 to 2 inches would be more than we got yesterday. I like it when they are conservative as we will sometimes get more. Hard sitting there yesterday watching the dry air keep the snow at bay for several hours! 😖

We overcame it here but it was tough watching that radar. We really was literally right next to it for a while. Dover had over 2 inches at one time and we were still in light sleet mode. I am about 15 to 20 minutes tops straight down 79 from there. That line was going due north and couldn't budge east a bit. Looking at it on close up radar was brutal there for awhile. It would have frustrated any snow lover. I can handle missing out but that close would have been brutal. LOL! And then to top it off it looked like it might break apart and split most of middle tennessee altogether and then it slowed and started wrapping up and did the pinwheel thing and started rotating in from the northwest. I know you probably didn't get quite as much as us this time but figured you got a inch or 2 anyway. How much did you end up with Beth? Better luck next time to you and everyone else.

[Clint]

The 0z CMC/GDPS from Pivotal... tropical tidbits would not open the CMC.

[Tamlin]

0z Euro text output

Memphis - 0.21”
Little Rock - 0.22”
Nashville - 0.10”
Dyersburg - 0.08”
Jonesboro - 0.06”
Knoxville - 0.11”
Chattanooga - 0.11”

Thermals suggest 15:1 ratios across the board except for maybe CHA.

[Curt]

0z Euro text output

Memphis - 0.21”
Little Rock - 0.22”
Nashville - 0.10”
Dyersburg - 0.08”
Jonesboro - 0.06”
Knoxville - 0.11”
Chattanooga - 0.11”

Thermals suggest 15:1 ratios across the board except for maybe CHA.

Kuchera ratios 0z euro

[Curt]

SREF plumes going up now. Most average 1/2 inch. Memphis has between .05 and .10 all falling at temps around 20

[Dyersburg Weather]

The Euro gives a big portion of Tennessee .12 to .20 according to this. Looking  at surface map it took a step in the right direction and is real close to being really interesting.

[Beth]

Took off from model watching today to enjoy the snow win. Looking at the snow tonight it's saying to me it's ready for fresh coat. Time to start eyeing Monday. Let's bring another round home folks. Area wide power this time!

Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 11:31:41 PMWe overcame it here but it was tough watching that radar. We really was literally right next to it for a while. Dover had over 2 inches at one time and we were still in light sleet mode. I am about 15 to 20 minutes tops straight down 79 from there. That line was going due north and couldn't budge east a bit. Looking at it on close up radar was brutal there for awhile. It would have frustrated any snow lover. I can handle missing out but that close would have been brutal. LOL! And then to top it off it looked like it might break apart an ::snowman::d split most of middle tennessee altogether and then it slowed and started wrapping up and did the pinwheel thing and started rotating in from the northwest. I know you probably didn't get quite as much as us this time but figured you got a inch or 2 anyway. How much did you end up with Beth? Better luck next time to you and everyone else.

I probably got about a inch on Saturday.  My granddaughter still had a blast playing in it. She is like her Mimi and loves her snow, lol.

[Charles L.]

LMK is going with ~1-2" for their CWA. We got a little over an inch from this last system, so here is to hoping we get another inch from this one.

[BRUCE]

Meg going with 1 to 3 inches in se counties of Arkansas

[JayCee]

MRX sticking to their half inch for most, and up to 3 inches on the Plateau and southwest VA.  NAM continues to show significantly more in the valley over here--around .28 in liquid equivalent.  Why so much more on the plateau and southwest VA when this isn't a rain to snow event?  Don't get that line of reasoning since elevation won't play much of a factor with precipitation types.

EDIT:  Looking at the Euro--even it has nearly 2" in some of the valley locations near the foothills.  I guess MRX will downplay this up until the day it happens, then suddenly increase amounts if models continue to show an advisory level event.  I've seen that happen many times before. 

[Charles L.]

The latest run of the GFS gives me a bigger snowfall (~2") with this system than the last event.
It gives Nashville an inch. But Memphis gets hosed. Sorry fam.

[harlequin]

This would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Charles L.]

The NAM just came in snowier for everyone. Huge uptick in QPF on this run.

At least on the 12km, the 3km looks much more realistic imo.