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Author Topic: Christmas 2017 Storm  (Read 23016 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #270 on: December 17, 2017, 02:32:45 PM »
How may I access these maps?

Do you have to pay?
Free at weather.us

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #271 on: December 17, 2017, 02:38:08 PM »
Thank you!

Offline Brandon

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #272 on: December 17, 2017, 03:40:45 PM »
Memphis AFD this afternoon.
Quote
Models are in decent agreement with a potent cold front moving
into the Mid-South on Friday. Although the latest ECMWF is a tad
slower but both models show a line of showers possibly with a few
embedded thunderstorms pushing into the Mid-South Friday afternoon
into Friday Night. Both models also show the front stalling over
the Mid-South through the weekend. The only difference is the
location of exactly where the front will stall. Both models also
show the arctic air behind the front will be slower moving into
the area which should keep precipitation all rain through the
weekend. If this scenario does play out, then the risk for flash
flooding will be increased wherever the front stalls especially
after the potential for heavy rainfall mid-week. In addition, the
ECMWF also shows the arctic air eventually creeping into the Mid-
South just beyond the end of the forecast period possibly bringing
winter precipitation to the area. As I stated yesterday, models
have changed with every run regarding this system thus there is
low confidence with the forecast beyond Friday. Until the system
comes ashore over the Northwest United States mid week and the
models can get some good upper air data, confidence in the
forecast will remain low and will continue to change. Models
continue to show an extremely cold airmass plunging down into the
region sometime during the day 7 to day 10 period thus holiday
travelers should stay alert for future forecasts as there will be
the possibility of winter weather occurring sometime during that
period.

KRM


Offline JayCee

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #273 on: December 17, 2017, 03:51:23 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)...

Fairly active pattern will bring three precip episodes into the
forecast area during the extended period, first on Tues night/Wed,
second on Friday night/ Sat, and the third potentially on Sunday.
Model solutions for the late portions of the forecast, around
Christmas Eve, continue to fluctuate wildly. The 12Z EMCWF just
arrived, showing a fairly warm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
with the frontal boundary and rain field to our north over the
Ohio Valley, while the GFS is cooler and wetter with the frontal
boundary near us, but still not cold enough to produce wintry
precip. We will have to wait and see what comes of this epic
battle of model solutions. But as it stands presently, this week
looks to be warmer than normal, continuing into the holiday
weekend.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #274 on: December 17, 2017, 10:21:03 PM »
0z GFS rolling out and almost in range. Lets see if it bounces back.

Post Merge: December 17, 2017, 10:32:43 PM
Now looks like a quick hit of light snow on the back end then nothing ;) . Time to close the thread (joking, I kid I kid)
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 10:32:43 PM by wfrogge, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #275 on: December 17, 2017, 10:40:06 PM »
0z GFS rolling out and almost in range. Lets see if it bounces back.

Post Merge: December 17, 2017, 10:32:43 PM
Now looks like a quick hit of light snow on the back end then nothing ;) . Time to close the thread (joking, I kid I kid)

I don't trust anything at this point until the system comes on shore. This is insane.

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #276 on: December 17, 2017, 10:48:23 PM »
I would be ok with a nice inch of snow on the backside if its cold afterwards. I doubt we get it all or most as snow anyways. So bring on rain as long as the cold can come in fast afterwards and give us a decent coating. Better then we have gotten in a long time this early in the season. Beggers cant be choosers.
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #277 on: December 17, 2017, 10:54:45 PM »
Don't trust any of those post-Christmas storm tracks. What does surprise me this time around is the earlier arrival of the cold front.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #278 on: December 17, 2017, 11:04:30 PM »
There have always been multiple fronts with this system. One front moves east and stalls out, then pieces of energy pop out of the trough in the southwest. Weíre dealing with the timing of the front stalling out, and then the timing and amount of energy coming out of the west. Itís a pretty complicated system to model and the energy isnít fully sampled. Something is going to happen in between Tulsa and the apps,  but thatís all we know at this point.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #279 on: December 17, 2017, 11:19:54 PM »
"Tulsa" is among the most hated words when we're talking winter weather.

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #280 on: December 17, 2017, 11:23:25 PM »
The one on the 30th looks like a more organized storm.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #281 on: December 17, 2017, 11:40:57 PM »
Just a observation of the trends today with the gfs and Canadian, it seemed they were slightly quicker with the colder air moving into our area. Also it seems it keeps cutting storms right toward strong HP's. Not sure I buy that especially still at this range. Once we get another 48-72 hours closer I think or at least hope some of the finer details become a little more clear. Still time, hopefully things will trend in a good overall direction as we get into and past Christmas. ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 11:55:51 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline Matthew

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #282 on: December 18, 2017, 05:19:11 AM »
Well flooding could become a serious issue also later this week.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #283 on: December 18, 2017, 07:06:41 AM »
Euro still giving a couple inches to middle Tennessee, especially the northern half.


Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Christmas 2017 Storm
« Reply #284 on: December 18, 2017, 08:52:58 AM »
I've never seen so many strong HP's that moved so fast that had systems cut right into them. It looks silly as all get out to me ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::.

 

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