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Author Topic: New Years Light Snow Event  (Read 20195 times)

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Offline Tamlin

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #120 on: December 30, 2017, 07:31:03 AM »
The problem here is that this works one way.  There is no payoff if you start and it hits.  The models- for this region of the country - simply don't lock in until very late in the game and-even then - the bust percentage is significant.  There is already an implicit fear and it is so much so-that even professional forecasters are afraid to make a big call when most significant guidance says it's a big event.   



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You can blame the Great Blizzard of ‘16 for the reluctance of the professionals. The most epic bust of all times.

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #121 on: December 30, 2017, 09:14:45 AM »
The problem here is that this works one way.  There is no payoff if you start and it hits.  The models- for this region of the country - simply don't lock in until very late in the game and-even then - the bust percentage is significant.  There is already an implicit fear and it is so much so-that even professional forecasters are afraid to make a big call when most significant guidance says it's a big event.   



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Like I said it was only said in jest. I don't really care when or who starts threads, I just jokingly said we should have a thread contest, that's all. I was playing around, and was just responding to a poster about the last thread. I have been following for a long time, I know how systems work. We would all probably miss quite a bit. Even mets have a hard time with winter weather in this region of the country especially. I like the threads, I don't blame the person starting them we live in the mid-south nothing is a given. I get it believe me. My comment about a contest was just for laughs, I would probably be the first one out. I love it when we can start a thread. But at the end of the day I don't care if someone starts one for a march storm now. It's no big deal. I will never get into the contest discussion again. ::rofl:: I made a light hearted comment responding to another poster about Mr. Wonderful and his early thread start. That's all, relax folks. It's all good we will get a storm, get the thread started. The only thing to fear is fear itself! ::rofl::  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 01:40:43 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #122 on: December 30, 2017, 09:20:38 AM »
i havent started thread in long time.... dont really care to.... guess my best thread i started was the great flood event in may 2010.... i started a bit early.... but all models pretty much were in line for something big to happen... i caught lot slack over it. but we all seen how that even turned out... none of us can out predict mother nature... no one....

Post Merge: December 30, 2017, 09:27:13 AM
guess back to this topic...nws has a wwa for areas tupelo south in north ms. mainly fz drizzle... pretty much going be it.... guess time to move on further in january.... curious about system 7  to 8 days out.... see alot energy coming crashing into the californina  coast in the near future.... could be a start to perhaps a more active midsouth pattern.. hopefully we can time this with some artic air still.... give me a classic apps runner i be happy....
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 09:30:15 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #123 on: December 30, 2017, 09:36:55 AM »
guess my best thread i started was the great flood event in may 2010.... i started a bit early....

You talking about this one?

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2504.0.html

Looks like CT_Yankee actually started the thread (to be fair, you were the second post, thanking him for starting it ;) ).

Definitely, that was the most personally impactful weather event for me (house had 6 feet of water in it).



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Offline BRUCE

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #124 on: December 30, 2017, 09:41:18 AM »
You talking about this one?

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2504.0.html

Looks like CT_Yankee actually started the thread (to be fair, you were the second post, thanking him for starting it ;) ).

Definitely, that was the most personally impactful weather event for me (house had 6 feet of water in it).



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think i actually did make post then i deleted it.... i remember now...  yeah, i remember you saying  you had severe flooding in your home.... thanks for posting the thread....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Beth

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #125 on: December 30, 2017, 11:27:17 AM »
You talking about this one?

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,2504.0.html

Looks like CT_Yankee actually started the thread (to be fair, you were the second post, thanking him for starting it ;) ).

Definitely, that was the most personally impactful weather event for me (house had 6 feet of water in it).



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I always think about you when ever that flood is mentioned.  I just can’t even imagine what you went through. 😞

Offline mempho

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #126 on: December 30, 2017, 12:14:13 PM »
You can blame the Great Blizzard of ‘16 for the reluctance of the professionals. The most epic bust of all times.
That was truly the most epic, most instant bust of all-time... You could literally see the panic on the faces of the on-air Mets.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline harlequin

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #127 on: December 30, 2017, 01:48:25 PM »
That was truly the most epic, most instant bust of all-time... You could literally see the panic on the faces of the on-air Mets.

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Yes, truly a shocking bust. I don't think we've come to close to one of that scale in the modern forecasting era in Memphis. December 2013 was a big bust too.

Offline StormNine

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #128 on: December 30, 2017, 02:03:26 PM »
Looking back I started the general Winter 2008-09 thread but that is the only active winter thread that I started. My other winter threads were mostly historical based.  I have started a few severe weather threads most notably 5/31 and 6/1/2013, and 12/23/2015.  I also have the bust of 4/18/2013 and the underperforming 4/5/2017 (the only thread that resulted in a High-Risk day) to my name as well. 


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #129 on: December 30, 2017, 06:48:49 PM »
Hey we can't forget the 12 Christmas Blizzard Warning. I got 2 inches.

Offline Coach B

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #130 on: January 01, 2018, 07:40:42 AM »
I've got a few flakes falling this morning with a current temp of 9. There is the smallest of dustings in the valleys of the roof and on the car. Low temp was 7.

Offline Eric

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #131 on: January 01, 2018, 08:35:20 AM »
Hey we can't forget the 12 Christmas Blizzard Warning. I got 2 inches.

So did the wife.  That sure was a ::poo:: Christmas.



Post Merge: January 01, 2018, 08:36:23 AM
I've got a few flakes falling this morning with a current temp of 9. There is the smallest of dustings in the valleys of the roof and on the car. Low temp was 7.

Erik Proseus suggests the light flakeage was river-effect induced.  Kinda neat.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #132 on: January 01, 2018, 08:48:17 AM »
So did the wife.  That sure was a ::poo:: Christmas.



Post Merge: January 01, 2018, 08:36:23 AM
Erik Proseus suggests the light flakeage was river-effect induced.  Kinda neat.
to funny Eric on the wife part lol. I wouldn’t admit that one .... thing
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Adam

Re: New Years Light Snow Event
« Reply #133 on: January 01, 2018, 08:50:41 AM »
Low temp here was also 7 degrees and we have some flurries flying this morning. Pretty neat to wake up to.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

 

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