Mid January Pattern change... return to Winter?

[Thundersnow]

As I hinted last night, the long range models have suddenly turned cold in a big way after January 15.

Just check the link to the Accuweather 15-day forecast earlier in the thread.  It is now indicating FIVE DAYS IN A ROW with highs not getting out of the 30s, beginning January 15.  Lows during that period are indicated to be mainly in the low and mid teens.  :shock:

But, I urge caution.  This is still a fluid situation.  Hopefully, the models will start to stabilize on something from this point forward.  It's been noted before in some of my reading that models often have a tough time locking down on a pattern change.  Often, when pattern changes are unfolding, models start varying wildly.

Stay tuned!

[Thundersnow]

Keep in mind also, that if we can ever see this scenario in under 10 days away, we'll have more reason to feel confident about it.  Accuweather (which is based on the GFS) is now showing the beginning of the cold on Day 10.  I, for one, will feel more confident about it if we see an agreement from that models that this scenario plays out in 7-10 days.  We're not quite there yet.  When it gets closer to 7 days, look for the local TV mets to begin discussing it on air (since most of the stations have 7-day forecasts now anyway).

So, what happens in the model runs over the next couple of days may be crucial in our confidence level.  If indications continue for the Arctic outbreak around January 15-18 by the first of next week, the hype will probably begin to pick up... as the possible change will only be a week away at that point.

Again, I'm still cautious about this since before yesterday, there were a couple of days where our prospects for the cold weather were beginning to look pretty grim.  This is why you can't bite down on any given model run for a forecast that is 2 weeks away.

[servocrow]

All I know....is I'm about ready to put on a pair of shorts, it's nearly stinkin' 70 degrees, for the love of Yukon Cornelius!!! :thumbsdown   And though weather like this THRILLS me in the Spring and Summer, I'm a FOUR Seasons type of Gal and DO NEED MY DOSE OF WINTER (besides the trees, flowers, and my allergies...well...we need a break)!!

Somethings' got to give at some point....But like you all, I'm not getting my hoverskirt in gear until I see more model agreement too.

I'll keep my fingers cross, be grateful for that LOW electric bill last month.....and keep a cautious eye to the Arctic air!!

 :snowwink  :!!  :!!!

[Thundersnow]

There's a tree with pick blossums on it across the street from where I work for pity's sake.  :roll:

The grass in my own yard is even turning lush and green.

If I have to get out the lawnmower in January...  :x

For the sake of balance, something's got to change.

[Coach B]

My wood heater went out last night I think for the first time since back in October.   For those who don't heat with wood, that's what happens when the temps are in the 60s at night.  Like I've said before, at least my woodpile is not shrinking very fast.  

[servocrow]

If I have to get out the lawnmower in January...  :x

For the sake of balance, something's got to change.

Yes, I will have to hurt my husband if he EYES the lawnmower while he's in town this week...We haven't had to MOW in January since we LIVED IN FLORIDA!!!! :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

[Thundersnow]

And... it seems that the latest GFS run is suppressing the cold air north of us...

Quite a rollercoaster ride, this is.

I should have continued to keep my mouth shut.  :roll:   The only thing to be sure about is... expect a different solution by tonight or tomorrow.  Uncertainty is the name of the game right now.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Didn't this EXACT THING happen JUST LAST YEAR?

Weren't we relatively warm before the SNOWSTORM IN 2003?

[Thundersnow]

This winter seems very similar to last year.  January was very mild, and there were indications of colder weather by February.  And, we did get the colder weather in February, along with a couple of small snow events.  The colder pattern looks to come a couple of weeks sooner than last year, though.

I've got to quit hanging off every model run and discussions that go along with it.  I have already read some comments why this latest pessimistic run should be considered an outlier.  Some are of the opinion that we are still on track.

Patience... patience...

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I think a suppression of cold air might actually be a bit more realistic...I'm checking the model runs...comment in a minute or two.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Do we risk a repeat of 1985 or 1899 if this flips to La Niña suddenly...which appears to me a remote possibility if El Niño conditions end as fast as they're expect?

[Reneezelle]

Im going to cross my fingers!!!

[Reneezelle]

What happened in those years??

Do we risk a repeat of 1985 or 1899 if this flips to La Niña suddenly...which appears to me a remote possibility if El Niño conditions end as fast as they're expect?

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

In both years we had a lot of snow and record cold.  In 1899 Tallahassee, Florida got to –2°.

[Reneezelle]

I just saw your post on Nashvillewx. VERY interesting.  To be young you sure know your stuff!
 Im going to choose to go with you, and PRAY we get dumped on by the snow!!!!! Looks like MID Month is Mid Tn is pretty scary for weather. Be it snow or storms. Interesting!