Mid January Pattern change... return to Winter?

[Thundersnow]

And... there is not even a hint of cold weather in today's Accuweather 15-day forecast for Nashville.  :roll:

That is because the GFS has delayed it.  But, what the GFS is indicating appears to be a build-up of Arctic air over western Canada during that time period.

So, we might as well sit tight for a while.  It may be mid to late month before we see any switch to winter weather.  Apparently, it takes time for everything to come into place for pattern changes like this.

[David]

I just hope it happens : /

[servocrow]

So, we might as well sit tight for a while. It may be mid to late month before we see any switch to winter weather. Apparently, it takes time for everything to come into place for pattern changes like this.

Late month?  Well, then....HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME!!!!

BWAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!

[Thundersnow]

Nothing real promising at this point.  All we can look at are signs of what may happen.  But, this from the Nashville AFD this afternoon:

 THE BIG QUESION IS WHEN THIS MILD WINTER WEATHER PATTERN IS GOING
 TO BREAK. OUR CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN HAS KEPT SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
 BOTTLED UP WAY TO THE NORTH, ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. HOWEVER,
 THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A CHANGE MAY START TO TAKE PLACE AFTER THE
 MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
 AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA AND POSSIBLY BREAK
 THE ARCTIC LOG JAM AND SEND A BIG DOSE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
 SPILLING SOUTHWARD. OF COURSE, THAT`S MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY, AND
 THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE INTERESTING
 TO WATCH AND TO SEE IF THOSE CHANGES ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE.

This from the CPC this afternoon:

THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN U.S. HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS... A PATTERN THAT HAS NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED SINCE EARLY DECEMBER.  TEMPERATURES STILL SHOULD BE MILD IN THE EAST... ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR SINKING INTO THE WEST MAY EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

So close, but yet so far...  :?

At least the possibility still seems to be there.

[Reneezelle]

Okay, I certainly don't know as much about the forcasts as you guys, and don't know how much it matters, but tonight at Barnes and Noble, over a Cinnamon Dolce, I looked at the Farmer's Almanac. It calls for snow Mid January!!!!!!!!! :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

[Thundersnow]

Lots of confusing chatter about models, pattern changes, "just wait till February!", etc., etc.  Several experts and amateurs look for the pattern change and subsequent chilldown to be in place after January 20.

I, for one, have better things to do than to get caught up in this prognostic schizophrenia.  :lol:

For a lot of people out there on other weather forums, it seems that the triggers for their various manic and depressive states can be found in the latest model run.   :roll:

So, I may let all this ride for a couple of days until something more compelling emerges.

[Reneezelle]

Oh.  :shock:

[servocrow]

Hee hee...Yeah...um...We have PLENTY of things to do... :roll:

Um...yeah...yep...

I need to fill the bacon machine...

or eat some bacon...

or something....

 :damnfunny  :snowwink  :ROFL  :\O/:

[Ron_Jarrell]

Anyone else see the news article on Brooklyn's cherry blossoms already blooming??? It's just January for crying out loud. The same news report said turtles were confused too since they're still swimming daily and not hibernating.

What's next??? Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!!!!    (anyone know what movie that's from)?

[Thundersnow]

OK, I cheated (though the line was familiar to me, just couldn't place it at first)...

Who ya gonna call?

GHOSTBUSTERS!

[servocrow]

AH!!  My oldest would've killed me for not knowing that one!!

I thought it sounded familiar too!!

 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

[Ron_Jarrell]

Throw Thundersnow some bac-o-bits!!! You got it.


Funny thing is I say that line all the time and nobody gets it. Either that or its just not funny. Hmmm... kinda embarassing if they just look at me crazy because it's just not as funny as I seem to think it is. Of course I usually just shorten it to "dogs and cats living together".  :?

[Reneezelle]

So.. are the patterns still going to change???

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Even if the patterns don't change as much as previously anticipated, I would call AVERAGE if not just ever so insignificantly BELOW AVERAGE.

[Thundersnow]

Reneezelle,

I wish I knew.  I've seen everything from feast to famine on any possible pattern change/return to winter weather in weather forum discussions.  Opinions are all over the place.  There is talk that El Nino is in a diminishing phase and may even be completely gone by mid February.  Models have been notoriously flipping back and forth over the last couple of days, so it seems.  That's why I've been keeping my mouth shut here over the last couple of days.

Apparently, the number one obstacle that we need to overcome is this stubborn ridge of high pressure over the southeast.  That with the jetstream so far north is what is keeping the cold air bottled up in the Arctic.  Will the ridge break down?  That's the question that's been discussed for whether or not the Eastern US gets in on the cold action.  As it appears now, the West and Rockies will get the brunt at least initially (as if they need it after all the snow Colorado has received lately).  The experts and hopefuls are still trying to put it all together.  I'm reading some encouraging comments about what the models are saying tonight... the possibility of a significant plunge of Arctic air right into the middle of the country around Jan 18 or thereabouts.  But, will those trends continue?  Only the Almighty knows.