Mid January Pattern change... return to Winter?

[Thundersnow]

So, we're in the doldrums right now.  For the next ten days or so, it looks like a period of mainly above normal temperatures with only a couple of days here and there where we drop down to near normal temperatures (which, I hate to say... will not bring us winter weather in the Midsouth).

But, there may be something to begin to look forward to on the horizon.

Models are hinting at an overall pattern change at about the middle of the month.  There is now chatter about that on various other weather forums.  The scenario could bring a ridge in the West and a trough to the East.  This would encourage air of more Arctic origin to being plunging southward toward us.

Some of this may be showing up on Accuweather's 15-day forecast:  http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=commercial_appeal&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=37221&metric=0.  They are indicating sharply colder weather around January 11-12... that's still too far away to take literally at this point.  But, it gives you an idea of what the long range GFS is saying at this point.

I for one will be watching it, and if anything looks like it's going to change, I'll post it here.  Folks, if we want any chance of snow around here... we've got to get some cold air in place first.  Maybe this is the first sign of that.

[servocrow]

Well gimme me snow love, that's all I'm saying!!

But you are right about the cold air...(it's really helpful for the white stuff).

Haven't checked to see how Denver is doing today, heard they were going to get another blast again..

[Snowman]

Models continue to show a pattern change coming in a few weeks. Will post more when we get it.

[servocrow]

Well, it would be nice to see if that contrary GFS holds together.  The way it shows now, the 540 line encompasses just about the whole country, except for Florida!

And on a side note...It SURE got warm today, didn't it? :?

[Thundersnow]

The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is showing a slight amplication of the pattern in the 8-14 day forecast.  While there is not yet any signature of an Arctic outbreak on their temperature maps, they did have this to say:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2007:  DURING WEEK 2... THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 6Z GFS SUPPORTS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE DOMINANT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING DAYS 6-10 SHIFT EAST TOWARDS GREENLAND WHILE THE LARGE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE BUT REMAIN CENTERED OVER ALASKA. FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX TO BECOME NEUTRAL AFTER REMAINING STRONGLY POSITIVE DURING THE MILD DECEMBER. IN ADDITION... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCCILLATION (NAO) TO TREND NEUTRAL. IF THE LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC... THEN A NEGATIVE NAO INDEX WOULD BECOME MORE PROBABLE. ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE AO AND NAO INDICES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CONUS... A TREND TOWARDS NEUTRAL INDICES DOES RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATUES BY MID JANUARY.

It's one of those things we're going to have to be patient with and watch day by day.

[Thundersnow]

The pattern change scenario is still in the cards.  It's looking more and more likely that it will not come until after January 15.  The models tend to bring these things in too early at first.  Notice that the Accuweather 15-day now doesn't show the 11th and 12th as being particularly cold (as it did last week).  But, notice the little curiosity on the 15th... a high of 56 with a low of 15.  :shock:

That is quite a temperature drop for one day (though it could happen).  Chances are, it will likely not happen in that way, even necessarily on that date.  There are still a lot of unknowns here.  So, we'll have to continue to be patient and check back every couple of days until we get closer to it and know more.

Oh, before I forget it...

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!  :cheers

[servocrow]

A HIGH of 56 and a LOW of 15, eh???

Could that mean.....THUNDERSNOW?? :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


HAPPY HAPPY 2007 TO ALL Y'ALL!!!!

[Thundersnow]

If we see that kind of temperature drop that day, you can guarantee that THUNDERSNOW will be here to talk about it.  

   :roll:

[Thundersnow]

Just checking some other forecasts for the 15th (looking northwest since they will get it before we do)...

Paducah, KY:  A wintry mix possible High: 35 °F Low: 10 °F
St. Louis, MO: Snowy, windy and colder High: 25 °F Low: 6 °F

Even Little Rock, AR has a low of 15 on that date, according to good ole Accuweather.

Just something to chew on.

Of course, all of this could just be fantasy.  It is the GFS (Grand Fantastic Scenarios), after all. :twisted:

[servocrow]

HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEEHEH.....


Well, at least WE will have ZONE THUNDERSNOW!!!!

And the Great Fantasy of Science and IN-Accuweather CAN NEVER take that away!!!!

 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

[David]

I just had about 10000 birds land in my yard!! it looked like the movie the Birds. They are flying NORTH to get out of this HEAT haha

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

56/15?

Everyone get the glue...you're going to need it with THAT humidity...

[Snowman]

NWS Louisville talking about how easy it will be for colder temps to move south.

WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEVER GO SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW CLIMO...AM NOTING THAT ENS
MEAN IS FCSTING SOME CHILLY AIR TO DROP INTO NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA BY
LATE MONDAY. SO ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK TO BRING THIS COLD AIR DOWN CLOSER TO OUR LATITUDE

.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

I found something interesting...

Models talk about snow in midmonth...and it seems to me that EVERYTHING happens in midmonth.  I posted that on nashvillewx.com (by the way, I'm giving it one more chance).

[msdawg911]

I posted that on nashvillewx.com (by the way, I'm giving it one more chance).

I was just about to say something about that...