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Author Topic: Hurricane Nate  (Read 5133 times)

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2017, 02:55:54 PM »
No one is ever going to accuse MRX of being liberal with their advisory products, but an advisory shouldn't be posted just for the sake of being posted, either. There's nothing in MRX's forecast packages that warrants a tropical storm watch/warning.
I agree. I donít think a TS warning is appropriate. And I think NHC is overdoing the strength up here. When the argument initially came up MRX didnít have anything out. Not even an HWO. That is borderline negligent. They have more than enough data to warrant a high wind watch and at least a flash flood watch. At 3:30 they finally decided to go with a wind advisory. They mention possible flooding in a graphic on their homepage but did not issue any flood watches. IMO, when flooding is possible, issue a watch. I donít think there is a good argument against a flood watch here.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2017, 04:18:26 PM »
IMO, the southern valley/plateau region should be under a FFW, but probably nowhere else in eastern Tennessee, outside of the mountains.  Most of Tennessee east of I-75 hasn't seen rain since Irma, and speaking for the foothills, I only rec'd a quarter inch then.  Since 9/1, I've only had 2.12" of rain, and that is typical of most areas nearby.  In addition, it appears downsloping winds could keep most rain amounts east of Knoxville under 2 inches.  The ground is very thirsty here, and will soak that up like a sponge. 
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2017, 06:01:11 PM »
TOR warning for Henry County


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Offline RobD

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2017, 06:04:21 PM »
TOR warning for Henry County

That's not really from Nate though, is it?

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2017, 06:14:26 PM »
That's not really from Nate though, is it?

The trough is interacting with Nate per OHX's afternoon discussion. So, somewhat indirectly, yes.


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Offline mempho

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2017, 06:33:15 PM »
No one is ever going to accuse MRX of being liberal with their advisory products, but an advisory shouldn't be posted just for the sake of being posted, either. There's nothing in MRX's forecast packages that warrants a tropical storm watch/warning.
The NHC has 40% probs of TS winds into TN.  This is much higher than some coastal areas under a coastal TS warning.  I would think MRX would issue based on that.  Perhaps they might want to reassess their grids because NHC has due extensive analysis and modeling on inland decay of tropical systems (see MEOW modeling on their website).

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Put on my big snow boots and
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Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2017, 06:34:37 PM »
OHX is discussing the feasibility of a wind advisory for Mid TN.  If the wind advisory DOESN'T happen, then tropical watches/warnings surely won't.
I'm only saying that these local grids completely disagree with  NHC wind probabilities. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2017, 07:49:56 PM »
Interesting that FFC has issued a TS warning for the 5 counties just south of the CHA metro area. I don't think anybody north of I-20 is going to actually verify TS conditions. I am still very surprised that a FFW hasn't been issued for areas south of I-40 in east TN. Looks like a pretty decent rainfall event is setting up on radar right now.

Post Merge: October 07, 2017, 07:51:04 PM
I'm only saying that these local grids completely disagree with  NHC wind probabilities. 

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Shouldn't there be some coordination between the NHC and the local offices in a situation like this? I'm surprised at the lack of clarity in the forecast.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2017, 08:04:38 PM »
Henry County under a TOR warning... again.


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Offline mempho

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2017, 08:15:05 PM »
Interesting that FFC has issued a TS warning for the 5 counties just south of the CHA metro area. I don't think anybody north of I-20 is going to actually verify TS conditions. I am still very surprised that a FFW hasn't been issued for areas south of I-40 in east TN. Looks like a pretty decent rainfall event is setting up on radar right now.

Post Merge: October 07, 2017, 07:51:04 PM
Shouldn't there be some coordination between the NHC and the local offices in a situation like this? I'm surprised at the lack of clarity in the forecast.
I think it's just the office.  If it was MEG or OHX, it wouldn't likely be an issue.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline WXHD

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2017, 09:56:46 PM »
The air is disturbingly still here. It's unsettling.

Post Merge: October 07, 2017, 10:22:43 PM
Currently the radar shows a river of dry air. It's directly over my house. The air is still. I think there's going to be some serious convection somewhere along this seam.

The wind has started picking up and slacking off. Kinda nice.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2017, 10:22:43 PM by WXHD, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2017, 06:26:59 AM »
Waking up to liquid falling from the sky.  I assume it's water.  How novel.  I must eat breakfast on the porch this morning and enjoy this unusual meteorological event.

Only .04 in the rain gauge this morning, and mainly light rain looks likely today.  Heaviest rain is definitely falling to my west, and will probably stay there until Nate moves into northern Alabama this evening.  I hope for at least an inch, and two would be exceptional. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2017, 07:12:09 AM »
Just a tropical storm now. Most of the heavy rain and wind is on the south side of the storm. We'll be feeling that in East TN around the early evening. Really hoping for some heavy rain. Only light precip is falling now, but it is better than nothing

Offline skillsweather

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2017, 09:03:04 AM »
Honestly this looks to be a huge fail for precip for I-65 west and Even my area the main precip just cant break through the dry dry air and the main precips pushing more east of Nashville. The other day it looked we would get 2-3 inchs now it seems maybe up to an inch unless your east and south east of Nashville.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2017, 09:24:31 AM »
Getting hammered with very heavy rain now. We are actually running ahead of models right now. Approaching 2Ē and the heaviest is still a long ways out.
Edit: 2.4 as of noon. All of the streams in east brainerd are bankfull now. Itís lightened up a bit so hopefully they will fall back some before the next heavy band comes through.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 10:45:48 AM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

 

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