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Author Topic: Hurricane Nate  (Read 5138 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Hurricane Nate
« on: October 05, 2017, 06:56:53 AM »


Projected to head toward the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane, potentially NOLA, with system potentially bringing rains to TN.


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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2017, 07:11:31 AM »
By that forecast track holding together as a tropical storm over land for almost 24 hours is pretty impressive.  Hopefully it isn't terribly damaging at landfall but we definitely need the rain.  With such a quick start we won't have long to watch this one.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2017, 08:44:41 AM »
I think the fact it will be moving so fast is evidence the trough in the middle of the country is yanking it along.  The shear associated with the trough should keep Nate's strength in check. 

I love sunny, mild weather as much as the next guy, but I honestly look forward to a cool, rainy day hopefully on Sunday--windows all open, listening to the rain on the fallen leaves.  Give me a hammock chair on the porch and a cold drink, and I'll be in the closest thing to heaven on this side of it.   ::guitar::
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 09:07:29 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2017, 11:35:31 AM »
I think the fact it will be moving so fast is evidence the trough in the middle of the country is yanking it along.  The shear associated with the trough should keep Nate's strength in check. 

I love sunny, mild weather as much as the next guy, but I honestly look forward to a cool, rainy day hopefully on Sunday--windows all open, listening to the rain on the fallen leaves.  Give me a hammock chair on the porch and a cold drink, and I'll be in the closest thing to heaven on this side of it.   ::guitar::
what leaves ? Bout all dead n dried up here ... color going to suck this fall affraid...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2017, 12:50:49 PM »
what leaves ? Bout all dead n dried up here ... color going to suck this fall affraid...

Plenty of leaves falling here too, but strong, deeply rooted oaks are still green.  Anyway, I was talking about the dry leaves on the ground.  Rain on dry leaves amplifies the sound of the falling rain.  Very relaxing. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline harlequin

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2017, 10:21:05 PM »
The leaves around here are still greenish (varying tree to tree), but they are drying quickly.

Hurricane watches are up for the northern Gulf Coast. Seems likely this will landfall in LA or MS as a Cat 1. A strong TS or high end Cat 1 are also possible. The fast movement, and dry states, might make impacts more minimal. I talked to one of my good friends earlier this evening for a half hour who lives in NO, and the weather never came up.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 10:22:36 PM by harlequin »

Offline vanster67

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2017, 10:49:53 PM »
Hey everyone.  Wondering about the chances for Nate to go through a period of rapid intensification before he hits the gulf coast.  I remember Harvey was forecasted as a Cat 1 early on, but strengthened and came ashore as a Cat 4.  Your thoughts?
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 02:44:30 AM by vanster67 »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2017, 05:14:27 AM »
Hey everyone.  Wondering about the chances for Nate to go through a period of rapid intensification before he hits the gulf coast.  I remember Harvey was forecasted as a Cat 1 early on, but strengthened and came ashore as a Cat 4.  Your thoughts?

I'm no expert, but I would think the shear associated with the trough pulling Nate quickly northeast would prevent any rapid intensification.  Conditions just aren't right for that.  Category 1 hurricane looks likely, but nothing much stronger.

GFS had Nate much further west the last few runs, but has now shifted back east, and brings him right up the eastern TN valley, similar to NHC.     
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2017, 09:58:21 AM »
Category 4 at landfall isn't going to happen. Now, RI could very well happen and Nate could attain category 2 prior to landfall considering he'll be going over some of the highest available heat content in the entire basin right now and shear is relatively minimal prior to full trough capture. The original trough, coming Saturday, isn't going to be as strong as originally progged but the one behind it in the Rockies will be the mechanism to kick Nate out like a Tampa Bay kicker.

Also, the reason for the shift east is because the LLC reorganized further east after emerging off the coast of Honduras overnight.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2017, 04:53:39 PM »
MRXs graphic for Nate seems to indicate a widespread 4-5 rain event. I also noticed that WPC has a max of just over 10 near Andrews, NC. I dont see any guidance supporting that much rain. Im expecting more like 3 here and 6 in the upslope areas of NC.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
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Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
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2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2017, 05:21:03 PM »
MRXs graphic for Nate seems to indicate a widespread 4-5 rain event. I also noticed that WPC has a max of just over 10 near Andrews, NC. I dont see any guidance supporting that much rain. Im expecting more like 3 here and 6 in the upslope areas of NC.

At this point, I'll be happy with a solid inch.  The last two tropical systems didn't yield much rain here thanks to the ever present rain shadow under the Smokies.  Depending on exactly where Nate travels along the mountains will mean all the difference for rain amounts in this part of Tennessee.  The trajectory looks good at this point, similar to Ivan in 2004 that dropped about 1-2 inches of rain here (I had just moved here that year).  Here's hoping we get that much, at least.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 05:43:57 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2017, 07:11:46 PM »
MRXs graphic for Nate seems to indicate a widespread 4-5 rain event. I also noticed that WPC has a max of just over 10 near Andrews, NC. I dont see any guidance supporting that much rain. Im expecting more like 3 here and 6 in the upslope areas of NC.
Well . . . stay tuned. The GFS has jumped from 3.9 to 5.6 at KCHA.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline harlequin

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2017, 11:00:39 PM »
Nate's a hurricane now. A bit ahead of schedule.

Offline Uncle Nasty

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2017, 12:02:31 AM »
Well . . . stay tuned. The GFS has jumped from 3.9 to 5.6 at KCHA.

We are currently on the far West end of Panama City Beach and Scheduled to return to Chattanooga Sunday.  Looks like it's going to be a wet ride home. I'm hoping Chattanooga gets some good rain. My yard could definitely use it. Planning on aerating and overseeing this Friday so rain would definitely help soften the soil. The new sod we put down this summer is like concrete underneath. Perfect scenario would be 4 plus inches of rain with no wind damage.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Nate
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2017, 12:10:15 AM »
Nate's a hurricane now. A bit ahead of schedule.

Center of storm also seems to be avoiding the Yucatan Peninsula.  Bad news for New Orleans.  Wonder if Nate could pull a Charley on us (2004). 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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