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Author Topic: Fall 2017  (Read 46043 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #225 on: October 20, 2017, 03:44:30 PM »
Not sure if you Mid TN folks saw it, but Paul Heggen is leaving Nashville for a morning met job in NC.  Will miss his interaction here and wish him nothing but the best.

I wondered if something was up when he took "WSMV" off his FB page name and just put Paul Heggen, Meteorologist.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #226 on: October 20, 2017, 05:41:53 PM »
I've noticed that the GFS is trending very cold in Canada in the long range, much like Curt's winter outlook posted in the other thread.  Cold in Canada is good for us--gives us a good source region to draw from, unlike previous years when all the cold air was on the other side of the globe.
cold air over canada  does not always translate straight down south... depending on ridging and trough placement... lot times or nor... it slide off to the east and settle up in the new england states.. 
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #227 on: October 20, 2017, 05:46:20 PM »

And get a load of that beast of a cold front in a week on both gfs and euro.

I'm planning on spending most of this weekend outdoors enjoying the mild weather in summer attire.  Could be the last near 80 this year.  Some areas might even see their first flakes by mid-week.

Quote
This upper low is kicked out rather quickly with another following
in its wake by Monday night. This will bring significantly colder
air to the region on Wednesday into Thursday. In fact, some higher
elevations could see snow, perhaps mixed with rain, across northern
parts of Tennessee, mountains of southwest Virginia and the
Appalachians.

Post Merge: October 20, 2017, 05:55:43 PM
cold air over canada  does not always translate straight down south... depending on ridging and trough placement... lot times or nor... it slide off to the east and settle up in the new england states..

Of course not.  My point was at least a reservoir of cold could be there for a change, unlike previous years when even Canada was mild to warm.   We can't have lasting cold here if our source region for cold is torching.  Since Super Nino, most of the polar regions on our side of the globe have been void of true Arctic cold.   

« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 05:55:43 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Online cgauxknox

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #228 on: October 20, 2017, 08:02:53 PM »
I had to make a quick trip up to Columbus, OH for work and was somewhat surprised to not see any color anywhere, even at elevation around Jelico or all the way into Ohio.  The dry spells have really taken their toll.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #229 on: October 21, 2017, 06:59:56 AM »
I had to make a quick trip up to Columbus, OH for work and was somewhat surprised to not see any color anywhere, even at elevation around Jelico or all the way into Ohio.  The dry spells have really taken their toll.

I have a few young sugar maples that usually have good color, but they are already dropping their pale orange leaves.  I guess the dry spell came at a bad time.

The weather is about to turn much more active and wetter than we've seen so far this Autumn.  The pattern change means November 2017 won't be like it's predecessor at least in terms of precipitation.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #230 on: October 22, 2017, 06:25:48 PM »
Weird. The 18Z GFS completely lost the storm for the end of the week. Has a dry frontal passage now followed by the first freeze of the year. Curious to see if that is a trend or just the 18Z being the 18Z.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #231 on: October 22, 2017, 10:43:53 PM »
It looks like snow for the higher elevations this weekend. Hopefully some lower elevations might see at least a light wintry mix. We might get our first freeze here in Knoxville on Saturday night  ::snowman::

Post Merge: October 23, 2017, 03:39:19 PM
Picked up approximately 1.25" in downtown Knoxville today, with another quick band coming through right now. Hopefully this will put us above 1.3".
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 03:39:19 PM by schneitzeit, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #232 on: October 23, 2017, 09:00:39 PM »
Ended up with 1.37" of needed moisture today.  Wind still going strong well after dark. 

Post Merge: October 24, 2017, 07:59:33 AM
The season's first freeze warnings are showing up in the North Carolina mountains for tonight.  And could some see flakes flying by this weekend?

Quote
The 120-140 kt jet will put the forecast
area in the left exit region with continued synoptic support for
lift and precipitation. With this lift persisting behind the front
and cold air advecting in, the question becomes will there be any
wintry precipitation. For now, have included a mix of rain and snow
in the forecast for northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia
Sunday night into Monday.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 08:00:04 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #233 on: October 24, 2017, 01:06:48 PM »
Gfs wanting  to change rain to light snow in NW Arkansas before precipitation exits there later this week. Going to be a cold rain and low 40s here followed by lots of freeze and frost warnings this weekend.

Behind that gfs has a 20 inch blizzard for Denver. Interesting patterns setting up especially with that recurving pacific typhoon.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #234 on: October 24, 2017, 02:49:32 PM »
Gfs wanting  to change rain to light snow in NW Arkansas before precipitation exits there later this week. Going to be a cold rain and low 40s here followed by lots of freeze and frost warnings this weekend.

Behind that gfs has a 20 inch blizzard for Denver. Interesting patterns setting up especially with that recurving pacific typhoon.

Been watching the Euro and GFS the last couple of days on this. Looks possible a few flurries could be squeezed out.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #235 on: October 24, 2017, 02:58:40 PM »
Frost advisories cover all of Tennessee for tonight except for Memphis metro (Shelby Co), and southern TN valley below Knoxville.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #236 on: October 24, 2017, 03:14:41 PM »
One big fly in the ointment for any potential weekend freeze is cloud cover. The euro has a solid cloud cover state wide for most if not all the weekend. It will be cold regardless- but without some radiational cooling a hard freeze might be delayed.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #237 on: October 24, 2017, 06:14:15 PM »
One big fly in the ointment for any potential weekend freeze is cloud cover. The euro has a solid cloud cover state wide for most if not all the weekend. It will be cold regardless- but without some radiational cooling a hard freeze might be delayed.
yeah noticed that myself...  and thats fine with me... not ready to give up my turnip greens just yet. ::yum::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline WXHD

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #238 on: October 24, 2017, 08:59:24 PM »
I'm sure that I'm not the only one amongst us that has outdoor hobbies beyond weather. For me, one of those passions is carnivorous plants. We live in a climate where most of them can spend 8mos out of the year outdoors. Tonights low temp broke me. My eternal denial of fall and winter has been shattered. I'm bringing them all in tonight.  For me, this moment is how I pass the seasons. I look forward to the first night of 2018 that I can bring them out.

Ps. Several of my plants are native to the region(Venus flytrap!)and they will stay out all winter.

Pss.. there are counties in Tennessee that have carnivorous plants that are native and can only be found in that county(never mind the state, region or, the world.)
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #239 on: October 25, 2017, 08:27:23 AM »
Anyone have an ideal about how much rain we will get this weekend in Nashville?

 

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