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Author Topic: Fall 2017  (Read 69854 times)

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Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #60 on: September 15, 2017, 03:35:51 PM »
Some folks are telling their age on this thread...and, boy, are they OLD!  ::evillaugh::


There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #61 on: September 15, 2017, 03:38:46 PM »
2003 honestly was the best year for me that i remember snow wise. At least was the most memorable. That one snow that year and them still having school because they didnt think it would get here until later and it came by like 9am and snowed nearly 9 inchs my dad said. Funny thing was the brunt of the snow fell during the day and thats usually rare to me because i hardly see snow actually stick during the day anymore it seems. Seems most our snows are night time accumulations that day all 9 inchs fell during the peak of the day but i think it was in like early January so thats why. Thats what made me fall in love with winter. Before that i only liked storms lol
Snow, flood and storm lover.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #62 on: September 15, 2017, 04:37:34 PM »
Don't know if its because of the recent cool snap, but my autumn blaze maple is blazing already.  Several branches have turned shades of deep red. 

Post Merge: September 15, 2017, 05:10:20 PM

There's nothing wrong with getting ready to turn 50 these days. Besides it's the new 40.

Seriously- some people in their early 30's around here look like they're living rough.

You are right.  I consider myself very, very blessed to have made it this far.  Not only that, but my 4 older sisters are still around, along with my parents (in their 80's) in Kentucky.  I couldn't ask for more. 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2017, 05:26:27 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #63 on: September 15, 2017, 07:51:34 PM »
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
   


Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #64 on: September 15, 2017, 08:01:15 PM »
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 
i am personally ....for a stronger nina... 98  99... cant get any good severe in spring time... i take a big outbreak in the winter  example january 21, 1999..... ::guitar::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #65 on: September 15, 2017, 08:21:42 PM »
The good thing is that usually when you have 2 La Nina's back to back the 2nd one is quite different from the 1st one, for better or for worse. The only time off the top of my head that wasn't the case was 99-00 which was similar to 98-99 for the most part, but that was a Strong La Nina. Since our first La Nina in this series was record warmth then it just has to be better for the 2nd in the series (hopefully at least).

To demonstrate:

- 17-18 was very different from 16-17 (we are talking about the La Nina's of 1916-1918 and not the current 16-18 Nina series). 
- 50-51 was very different from the wet blowtorch that 49-50 was.
- 84-85 was obviously different from 83-84
- 08-09 was colder and not quite as crazy as 07-08
- 11-12 was a lot warmer than 10-11   

We have quite the variety of analogs:   

We have 1917-18, 1950-51, 1967-68, and 1984-85 are analogs for the weenies. 

We have 2011-12 as an analog for those who want winter to burn.   

We have 2008-09 as an analog for those who want to have an ice storm and lose power for several days, weeks, and months. 
 

So, basically, what you are saying is anything can happen.  ;)

Seriously, though, you've done your homework, and I appreciate someone putting effort into their theories and thoughts about what could happen.   


Post Merge: September 16, 2017, 02:41:36 PM
Today's temperatures in the 80's and dewpoints in the lower 60's makin' it feel like summa time again. 
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 03:35:30 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #66 on: September 18, 2017, 06:10:51 AM »
Looks like we're  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch::  ::blowtorch:: until the end of the month.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #67 on: September 18, 2017, 07:14:53 AM »
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #68 on: September 18, 2017, 09:04:46 AM »
Seems like we are still in the same overall pattern we've observed most of the summer--predominately cooler than normal, but with a 10-15 day interlude of warmer weather before a shift back to cooler again.  The next return to cooler weather could arrive at month's end.  Of course, Jose and Maria might have a say in what happens as they dance around together off the southeast coast of the U.S..   Hopefully, they'll find each other somewhere far, far away.

Hurricanes have shaken things up a bit but looks like the trough moves east in about 10 days.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #69 on: September 18, 2017, 06:59:02 PM »
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline WXHD

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #70 on: September 18, 2017, 09:00:25 PM »
That's quite a gust front coming down from Kentucky. I guess this is what will trigger overnight storms. (Attachment Link)

And there's two weird pings on the radar on the temnesseewx homepage.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2017, 07:46:17 AM »
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2017, 08:41:20 AM »
Looks like little, if any, rain will fall in the eastern TN valley over the next 7-10 days beyond a few widely scattered storms.  Considering our last significant rain here was on 9/6, we'll be in dire need of moisture whenever the pattern does get wet again.  Most areas in the foothills had very little rain with Irma--mostly under a quarter inch.
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2017, 10:24:30 AM »
yeah. We are heading into the dry period says climo wise.... other note...looks to be nice cool down by next weekend with nice frontal passage

Yes, the 06Z GFS has a nice cool shot toward the end of its run.  It has some of the lower elevations of eastern TN down into the lower 40's for overnight lows, which would easily give the higher elevations of the Smokies temperatures cold enough for their first major frost/freeze.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2017
« Reply #74 on: September 19, 2017, 12:48:55 PM »
The CPC 8-14 day outlook suggests more average conditions (minus East TN) with the colder than normal conditions moving into the central USA.  That is progress.  The good thing about this current pattern is that it gives cooler weather and rain to the parched Western states although riding will build back along the West Coast by the start of October. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

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