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Author Topic: Hurricane Irma  (Read 25646 times)

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Online Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2017, 06:54:42 AM »
The latest HWRF run shows a powerful hurricane moving into the FL Keys at the end of its run...

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Offline mempho

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2017, 06:55:57 AM »
NHC -  175mph!

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Online Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2017, 07:00:54 AM »
NHC -  175mph!

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A whopping 25 mph jump from their last advisory. And further strengthening is still possible too.
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Offline DocB

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2017, 07:40:29 AM »
The latest HWRF run shows a powerful hurricane moving into the FL Keys at the end of its run...
Having lived through Hurricane Andrew and the months of rebuilding, this is a far better scenario than hitting Miami or further north. Andrew could have been far worse had it made that northern shift and hoping Irma follow suit.

Online Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2017, 07:44:11 AM »
Having lived through Hurricane Andrew and the months of rebuilding, this is a far better scenario than hitting Miami or further north. Andrew could have been far worse had it made that northern shift and hoping Irma follow suit.

The only issue with this track is that it will either end up hitting the western edge of FL or going into the Gulf. If this thing goes this route, someone is getting screwed.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2017, 08:32:03 AM »
Irma's development and likely track are almost beyond words.  While the forecast tracks are getting better I still think we're much too far out to put a lot of stock in a landfall in any particular place, although it does look like landfall somewhere is increasingly likely.  Several days ago I read some forecaster somewhere (I've read so much I honestly just don't remember where I saw it) saying he expected Irma to be a 180mph Cat 5.  That seemed sensational at the time, but here we are with a verified 175mph.  Somebody said it already; we've got a long week of monitoring to see where this thing goes.

Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2017, 09:26:59 AM »
Worth noting that half the EPS members take Irma into the keys and into the western GOM before turning north into the FL panhandle. Kinda matches the CMC ENS from last night.

Offline WXHD

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2017, 09:49:42 AM »
Scary stuff. There is already a shortage of bottled water in Florida as so much of it has been diverted to Houston. One store sold 11 pallets to of water in 32mins, leaving the shelves and stockroom bare. I imagine preparing will cause gas prices to swell as well.
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Online Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2017, 09:56:31 AM »
Hurricane Hunters just found a pressure in the mid 920s. Irma is still strengthening.
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Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2017, 10:27:12 AM »
Do you guys think we will feel any of the impact in west TN

Offline JHart

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2017, 10:45:11 AM »
Quote
000
WTNT41 KNHC 051446
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records
.
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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2017, 11:03:46 AM »
Do you guys think we will feel any of the impact in west TN
Still far too soon to tell, but at this point it'd be next to nothing other than some clouds and maybe breezy conditions.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2017, 12:30:32 PM »
12z GFS has an Irma landfall near Savannah on Monday night.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #43 on: September 05, 2017, 12:44:16 PM »
Man the GFS has this thing deeping in the mid 890s.  Record potential here folks

Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #44 on: September 05, 2017, 02:08:04 PM »
3 schools of thought for potential US impact...

GFS/ GEFS = very Matthew like track along the east FL coast from Miami northward with only true landfall in Savannah

Euro/ CMC = Irma hits the keys and turns north along the west coast of FL with Euro landfall in Naples and CMC around Apalachicola.

and then there's the  HWRF which at its end has Irma crossing northern Cuba and emerging around Havana back into the GOM near the western tip


Lots of variability that should be tightened up in a couple of days

 

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