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Author Topic: Hurricane Irma  (Read 41484 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2017, 06:31:18 AM »
The 0z GFS is the craziest model run of a tropical system that I have ever seen. It makes landfall in Miami at 884 mb and goes the length of Florida sub 930. Ends up in Chicago.





06z GFS run is equally bizarre.  Irma heads northwest toward Cuba, abruptly turns north to travel the length of Florida, then bends west towards Nashville, and dissipates near Memphis.  The sharp right turn over Cuba to head north is something I've never seen before.  Most strong hurricanes don't turn that suddenly without a good reason.  And the strong high pressure over the Northern Apps the GFS shows isn't one.  It has Irma turning north and plowing right into it.

Totally off the wall track, but it has been that kind of summer. 


Post Merge: September 04, 2017, 07:00:29 AM
NHC:
Quote
A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the
initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt.  Irma will begin
rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.




« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 07:00:52 AM by JayCee »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2017, 07:38:51 AM »
Buckle up guys. This is going to be a big weather week with the focus on Irma.
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Offline Curt

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Hurricane Irma
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2017, 10:09:06 AM »


Last nights GEFS. How far west will she go? For now, getting tough to see much of anything further north than the mid Atlanta with that massive Florida grouped cluster. Looks like the big trough may miss her. Bet the westward trend isn't over just yet.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 11:05:48 AM by Curt »

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2017, 01:24:15 PM »
If Irma were to make landfall in the USA the contrast between her strong low-pressure center and a building high-pressure system would create a significant inland wind event that would go quite far inland. There is still a chance for Irma to go out to sea, but the latest trends are quite concerning that US Southeast, Cuba, and the Bahamas may not be so lucky. 

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2017, 01:40:30 PM »
The Euro is very GFS-lite in that it shows it close to the FL coast. It has it at 926 mb, which is much more realistic than the GFS' bomb.

Post Merge: September 04, 2017, 05:14:44 PM
18z GFS keeps the idea of a southern FL landfall. Miami would be a mess. (The pressure is overdone)

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« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 05:14:45 PM by Charles L., Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2017, 05:43:37 PM »
Now cat 4

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2017, 06:02:44 PM »
18z GFS brings it up the Florida peninsula and dissipates it over the southern Appalachians. 
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Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2017, 06:28:59 PM »
18z GFS brings it up the Florida peninsula and dissipates it over the southern Appalachians.
Any rain for northern middle tennessee?
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2017, 06:54:45 PM »
Any rain for northern middle tennessee?

It does show some rain there, but east of the plateau takes the brunt of it.  Nevertheless, way too early to get specific with rain totals.   Who knows where this storm ends up. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2017, 08:28:56 PM »
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/04/florida-gov-rick-scott-declares-state-emergency-ahead-category-4-hurricane-irma.html

On the one hand this seems premature, but with a storm this powerful it may be warranted.  My fear is that if this storm takes a sudden swing late people who should have plans in place may be caught flat footed.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2017, 11:49:20 PM »
0z GFS is a carbon copy devastating hit for all of Florida. The CMC comes way south and west. Direct hit for Cuba and then landfall in Destin. CMC is for sure the outlier but would be best case scenario for SE coast if there is one  because Cuba landfall would hopefully weaken the storm.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 12:08:23 AM by Dyersburg Weather »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2017, 05:23:44 AM »
Recon just found a pressure of 932 mb in Irma. This is a monster of a storm.
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2017, 06:21:18 AM »
Most models seem to be locking onto a path for Irma up the Florida peninsula into the Southern Appalachians.  06Z GFS is troubling as it grazes the whole east coast of Florida, leaving the eye just off shore before a landfall near the border of GA and SC.  That would allow Irma to maintain some strength as it travels the coastline, if it does stay just offshore.

Another worrisome aspect of this storm is it coming into the Appalachians with strong winds and heavy rains.  Considering the burn areas from last year's fires, flooding and landslides could be a major problem.  Weakened or dead trees will easily fall in strong winds and saturated soils if 4-6 inches of rain fall as some models show.

How often has two major hurricanes affected TN within just a few weeks?
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2017, 06:35:55 AM »
Recon just had a 167 kts FL wind. This thing is a Cat 5. Pressure also was measured at 930.
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Offline mempho

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Hurricane Irma
« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2017, 06:46:59 AM »
Recon just found a Cat 5...

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

 

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