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Author Topic: Hurricane Irma  (Read 31496 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Hurricane Irma
« on: September 01, 2017, 04:58:54 AM »
Let's all hope that Irma, currently at Cat 3 and forecast to soon strengthen to a Cat 4, becomes a fish storm and we don't have a second major landfall in the U.S.  Regardless, it's a big enough storm with enough potential that I think it's worth a thread to track it.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2017, 07:25:46 AM »
hope it does go ots... but long range pattern... says this bears watching for the us coast line... euro play s out... good chance going be a us hit somewhere... its got serious strong ridge high pressure building east... forces it pretty much west.. going be interesting see what the trough does next week first... that might keep it out of the gom... ::coffee::   this could get to cat  5...   
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2017, 08:22:25 AM »
Already fake maps being made. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2017, 09:39:20 AM »
I just need this to stay far away from the area between the East Coast and Bermuda between now and Thursday... the wife and I are going on a cruise.  8)  ::wow::


Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2017, 10:08:33 AM »
Already fake maps being made. (Attachment Link)
yeah.. and james spann just made a bogus statement too...  promise you this.... there is someone that knows where irma is heading to... :angel:

Post Merge: September 01, 2017, 04:51:31 PM
anyone from florida to north carolina coast... after todays 12zeuro.... ::wow::
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 04:51:31 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2017, 08:40:52 AM »
06Z GFS has a worrisome look.  Irma scoring a direct hit--going inland just barely west of NYC, which would put our nation's largest city in the worst possible position for surge and inland flooding.  A trough coming in later in the week could push it out to sea, or pull it inland, depending on how deep it is.  A deeper trough in the Ohio Valley would be worse--yanking Irma toward our east coast--anywhere from the Carolina's to New England.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 08:46:47 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Online Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2017, 06:52:34 PM »
It will be middle of the week before we have a better idea imo. Models are struggling with the strength and timing of the trough. Most models do have this thing becoming a picture perfect monster of a storm. Hopefully it can get kicked ots.

Post Merge: September 03, 2017, 12:24:16 AM
Please let the 0z GFS be wrong.
Edit to add that the 0z Euro is almost identical to the GFS. It's 8 days out but that's scary agreement.



« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 04:07:36 AM by Dyersburg Weather »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2017, 07:52:42 AM »
To have another major hurricane hit so soon after Harvey would be terrible.  The front that moves through our area on Tuesday-Wednesday hangs up just off shore of the East Coast.  Depending on where that elongated lower pressure/weakness ends up will impact Irma late week.  The forecast trajectory of the hurricane reminds me a bit of Hugo in '89. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2017, 09:45:29 AM »
The latest with Irma isn't good news for the east coast. I feel for these meteorologist though. Just anybody can post some outlandish claim on social media and it will go viral. In this area of widespread, 24/7 news, it is easy to spread lies. People will do anything for clicks and likes.
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Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2017, 02:56:23 PM »
More and more Epps  members has Irma getting in the gulf  ::wow::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2017, 03:41:40 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)...H5 trough will drop out
of Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes early in the extended period,
sweeping a cold front through our region during Tuesday. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday
night, diminishing Wednesday. From Wednesday through Sunday, post
frontal temperatures could persistently run 8 to 12 degrees below
normal. Why such a persistent cool period? Because the cold H5
trough will be slow to leave the eastern U.S., not doing so until
the upcoming weekend. That`s when things get further complicated. As
the trough departs, the Bermuda High seemingly wants to nudge
westward onto the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday morning. This is
significant because the underbelly of the Bermuda high has been the
feature steering Hurricane Irma across the Atlantic, and at this
time the long-range GFS and ECMWF bring Irma ashore between Myrtle
Beach SC and Wilmington NC on Monday. Just how far westward she
moves once inland will impact our weather late Monday and beyond.
Bear in mind that these long-range model forecasts of landfall can
experience much variation as the time draws near, and landfall
itself is no certainty.


Too bad our eastern trough decides to depart at the worst possible time--when Irma approaches.  Otherwise, it would be steered out to sea.  Of course, as MRX stated, no landfall is set in stone yet.  But it is looking worrisome at the very least. 
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 03:51:45 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2017, 10:24:34 PM »
latest  new cone  ... which i tried to paste... didnt come up... show south  west trend continues... chances her getting into the gulf are slowly increasing, especially the east side ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clay

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2017, 11:07:57 PM »
All the models show a recurve buts it hard not entertaining the idea of Irma getting into the Gulf with strong blocking high pressure locked in place across the Northern Apps.

Online Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2017, 11:46:07 PM »
The 0z GFS is the craziest model run of a tropical system that I have ever seen. It makes landfall in Miami at 884 mb and goes the length of Florida sub 930. Ends up in Chicago.




Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2017, 02:31:14 AM »
So we could get rain from this possibly? Miami to Chicago thats crazy track lol
Snow, flood and storm lover.

 

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