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Author Topic: Hurricane Harvey  (Read 32529 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #30 on: August 25, 2017, 08:36:37 AM »
The latest pass shows Harvey is now in the 940's, and the winds seem to be catching up to the pressure drops.

Post Merge: August 25, 2017, 08:53:15 AM
The eye is starting to clear out. Landfall looks to be later this evening. Wonder how much more strengthening we will see before landfall?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2017, 08:53:15 AM by Charles L., Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #31 on: August 25, 2017, 08:59:43 AM »
Thanks to the political circus in the country right now there hasn been nearly enough coverage of this so far. Hopefully the people in TX are taking it seriously. A strengthening hurricane is a completely different animal at landfall to a weakening hurricane of similar intensity.

Oh and BTW the NAM has max rainfall at nearly 70". That's not to be taken at face value, but it is extremely concerning.

The news today broadcasts what the audience wants versus what is really news (most of the time at least).

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #32 on: August 25, 2017, 09:02:58 AM »
The latest pass shows Harvey is now in the 940's, and the winds seem to be catching up to the pressure drops.

Post Merge: August 25, 2017, 08:53:15 AM
The eye is starting to clear out. Landfall looks to be later this evening. Wonder how much more strengthening we will see before landfall?
I believe we will see quite a lot of strengthening today. Just look at the IR loop from the last 4 hours. It's bombing out.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #33 on: August 25, 2017, 09:08:17 AM »
I would not be surprised at all if this thing is a minimal Cat 4 right before landfall. You can see it tightening up on each scan.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #34 on: August 25, 2017, 09:36:26 AM »
Here are some streaks that look to end:

- First Major Landfall in the USA: Wilma (2005)
- First Hurricane Landfall in/around Corpus Christi: Celia (1970)
- First Major Landfall in TX: Rita (2005)

The record for most rainfall generated in a tropical cyclone in the USA is 48 inches: Tropical Storm Amelia (1978) this occurred in Medina TX. I feel like it is possible for that record to be broken with Harvey or at least come close. 

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #35 on: August 25, 2017, 10:05:16 AM »
Here are some streaks that look to end:

- First Major Landfall in the USA: Wilma (2005)
- First Hurricane Landfall in/around Corpus Christi: Celia (1970)
- First Major Landfall in TX: Rita (2005)

The record for most rainfall generated in a tropical cyclone in the USA is 48 inches: Tropical Storm Amelia (1978) this occurred in Medina TX. I feel like it is possible for that record to be broken with Harvey or at least come close.

I heard that about this being the first major hurricane to make landfall in the US since 2005 on the radio this morning. That was really surprising to me; I guess time has a way of going by. There were so many major ones landfalling in the 1990s and early 2000s that it just doesn't seem possible that there hasn't been one in 12 years.

For some reason, I was thinking there had been one or two along the east coast since that time... but, apparently not. I gather even Sandy was below CAT 3 when she made landfall.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2017, 10:12:07 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #36 on: August 25, 2017, 10:35:25 AM »


Still has a little bit of dry air getting in the NE wall.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #37 on: August 25, 2017, 10:37:06 AM »
I heard that about this being the first major hurricane to make landfall in the US since 2005 on the radio this morning. That was really surprising to me; I guess time has a way of going by. There were so many major ones landfalling in the 1990s and early 2000s that it just doesn't seem possible that there hasn't been one in 12 years.

For some reason, I was thinking there had been one or two along the east coast since that time... but, apparently not. I gather even Sandy was below CAT 3 when she made landfall.

Matthew last year came close but didn't quite make it. My concern is that the area of TX this is impacting has dodged the worst impacts of tropical systems for decades. Allen (1980), Bret (1999), and Dolly (2008) hit further south than this one and Alicia (1983) and Ike (2008) hit the Upper Coast. It has been awhile since Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay have been hit which means there really isn't an analog for the public to compare to. Add in there are a lot of surge prone areas plus that epic flooding threat then it is very concerning. 

Offline joemomma

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #38 on: August 25, 2017, 10:40:47 AM »
940s?  Wow.  What's the lowest recorded pressure? 

EDIT:  882 for Wilma in 2005.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2017, 10:43:34 AM by joemomma »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #39 on: August 25, 2017, 10:54:32 AM »
A lot more pinks showing up as this system continues to strengthen. Down to 947 mb.

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Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #40 on: August 25, 2017, 11:03:01 AM »
I'm no expert- but based on the last hour of radar- sure looks like strengthening

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #41 on: August 25, 2017, 11:17:11 AM »
Visible sat looks pretty ominous. Eye is almost pinhole like. That indicates rapid intensification. Little bit of an eye wall replacement is going on right now, but once that clears up watch out. Cat 4 easily within the realm of possibility, cat 3 imminent
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #42 on: August 25, 2017, 11:45:26 AM »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #43 on: August 25, 2017, 11:53:54 AM »
On the 12Z GFS the area of TX receiving >12" of rain appears larger than the entire state of TN. The area receiving >20" is about half as large. That is a collossal amount of water than won't be able to drain to the Gulf due to onshore flow.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #44 on: August 25, 2017, 12:23:47 PM »
That Beeville/Cuero/Goliad/Karnes City/Victoria corridor is an area that I am extremely concerned about. Harvey is still expected to be a CAT 2 in that area and with it stalling and slowly weakening that area will experience 48+ hours of tropical storm/hurricane conditions and that is the area where up to 30+ inch rain amounts are expected.

I just heard this from the Corpus Christi News Conference: If the power goes out in Neuces County/Corpus Christi expect it not to be back for 3-7 days. 

 

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