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Author Topic: Hurricane Harvey  (Read 21560 times)

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Offline Clay

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Hurricane Harvey
« on: August 24, 2017, 12:18:34 AM »
Tropical Storm Harvey looks to threaten the Texas Gulf Coast as a strong TS or weak hurricane. The flooding and storm surge threat will be most pronounced with this system. Landfall is likely by the weekend.

« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 03:40:13 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2017, 04:24:33 AM »
New intensity forecast has Harvey getting to 85 mph at landfall.

The flooding that will come from this system will be nothing short of catastrophic. Widespread amounts of 15-20"+ looks likely for parts of SE TX.
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Offline Curt

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2017, 07:00:12 AM »
0z GFS and euro both had between 20-25 inches of rain at Houston. This may be the biggest weather story of the year if this plays out.

From there euro goes right up the MS River with a swath of 6 -8 inch rains. It's been incredibly consistent with this scenario. The GFS looks to be playing catch up and is now trying to go this direction albeit the 6z didn't at all.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2017, 07:19:21 AM »
06Z GFS brings Harvey on shore in Texas, then leaves it there until it dissipates.  Worst case scenario for them, I would think.  I guess it's a possibility if the trough coming in doesn't pick it up.  Here is the latest blurb from the NHC concerning future movement:

Quote
Once Harvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict
that the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to
meander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.


If I lived in that area and near any major river or stream, I would be very worried right about now.  With very little topography, most rivers would spread out over a large amount of land if extreme rainfall amounts materialize. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Online cgauxknox

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2017, 10:24:45 AM »
Forecast is now saying Harvey will grow to a Cat 3 and landfall at 115mph.  The catastrophic rainfall will likely still be the main story, but a stronger storm will mean higher surge at the coast.  The size of the potential impact area is going to make this a very challenging response.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2017, 10:31:17 AM »
I do track some TX stuff with some friends I know in Corpus Christi and the San Antonio area. This is probably the worst tropical situation for that area since Celia in 1970. The flooding along has the potential to retire the name of Harvey for good. 

Some things to note:

- This storm is well ahead of schedule. It is already borderline sub 980mb and has 65MPH winds, so it is not going to take much for this to be a hurricane. This strength wasn't expected for another 18-24 hours, so unless something drastic happens this will be a hurricane and probably either a CAT1/2 border or a solid CAT 2 (with some models showing borderline CAT 3) instead of a 75MPH Cat 1.

- The two big time concerns are catastrophic inland flooding and major surge in Matagorda Bay, which is the bay in the Port' O Connor area (assuming a Corpus Christi to Matagorda landfall). Harvey could linger for 4-5 days producing tropical rainfall. A normal storm that lingers 1-2 days could produce like 6-12 inches of rain depending on various variables, but this storm because it lingers twice that time the rainfall will be insane and who knows how high some of the rainfall amounts could go but it could be well north of 20 inches in areas.  The combination of at least tropical force winds/rain will cause a lot of tree/powerline damage. Some areas could experience tropical storm conditions for a solid 3 days.

- Surge is a big concern. Matagorda Bay I believe because of its shape is really prone to surge and the surrounding area is very low so a 6 foot surge is quite damaging to that general area. A CAT 2 would definitely be able to produce that surge.     

Offline Curt

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2017, 11:53:16 AM »
I do track some TX stuff with some friends I know in Corpus Christi and the San Antonio area. This is probably the worst tropical situation for that area since Celia in 1970. The flooding along has the potential to retire the name of Harvey for good. 

Some things to note:

- This storm is well ahead of schedule. It is already borderline sub 980mb and has 65MPH winds, so it is not going to take much for this to be a hurricane. This strength wasn't expected for another 18-24 hours, so unless something drastic happens this will be a hurricane and probably either a CAT1/2 border or a solid CAT 2 (with some models showing borderline CAT 3) instead of a 75MPH Cat 1.

- The two big time concerns are catastrophic inland flooding and major surge in Matagorda Bay, which is the bay in the Port' O Connor area (assuming a Corpus Christi to Matagorda landfall). Harvey could linger for 4-5 days producing tropical rainfall. A normal storm that lingers 1-2 days could produce like 6-12 inches of rain depending on various variables, but this storm because it lingers twice that time the rainfall will be insane and who knows how high some of the rainfall amounts could go but it could be well north of 20 inches in areas.  The combination of at least tropical force winds/rain will cause a lot of tree/powerline damage. Some areas could experience tropical storm conditions for a solid 3 days.

- Surge is a big concern. Matagorda Bay I believe because of its shape is really prone to surge and the surrounding area is very low so a 6 foot surge is quite damaging to that general area. A CAT 2 would definitely be able to produce that surge.     

Cat 4 Bret came ashore in 1999 with 145mph gusts but south of where Harvey is which made a huge difference in the amount of population directly affected. I would be willing to say a larger circumference hurricane as a 3 towards Corpus Christi would be much more impactful than Bret.

Offline joemomma

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2017, 12:48:58 PM »
Bumped to a hurricane, 80MPH and 981mb.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2017, 01:13:34 PM »
The forecast intensity continues to rise too. Now the NHC has Harvey reaching 125 mph. Very dangerous situation setting up for TX and parts of LA even with the rainfall potential spreading that far NE.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2017, 01:45:12 PM »
Cat 4 Bret came ashore in 1999 with 145mph gusts but south of where Harvey is which made a huge difference in the amount of population directly affected. I would be willing to say a larger circumference hurricane as a 3 towards Corpus Christi would be much more impactful than Bret.

Bret was extremely compact and had a very small windfield for a major hurricane and therefore was not a major surge producer so the worst of the damage only impacted very sparsely populated areas.

Offline Clay

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2017, 02:03:29 PM »
The Euro is an absolute disaster for SE TX. Harvey re-emerges into the Gulf.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2017, 02:17:32 PM »
The Euro is an absolute disaster for SE TX. Harvey re-emerges into the Gulf.
Euro also brings the center through the heart of west Tennessee as a 996-998 mb bomb.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2017, 02:51:18 PM »
12Z GFS also shows the remnant tropical low moving toward western TN after spending several days spinning along the Texas coast dropping ridiculous amounts of rain.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2017, 03:08:15 PM »
http://kris.images.worldnow.com/images/6454561_G.jpg

This is Calhoun County, TX in the Matagorda area. With a CAT 3 surge most of this county is under water.

Offline Vols1

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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2017, 03:23:57 PM »
Looks like to me it would be a next Thursday-Friday threat to Tennessee correct?

 

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