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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 299348 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1950 on: January 13, 2018, 03:56:31 PM »
MRX:

Quote
On Tuesday morning we see the front back across W TN and oriented
from southwest to northeast. This system will have plenty of lift
accompanying it with good upper-level divergence thanks to the right-
rear entrance region of a strong upper-level jet over our area. Now
what you`ve all been waiting for, yes, there will be moisture with
this system and it will be in the form of snow. The GFS is now more
in line with the ECMWF as far as arrival time but still differs on
amount of moisture and exit time. Models bring in snow Tuesday
morning across the Northern Cumberland Plateau, then move it into
the Central Valley by late morning, and by mid-afternoon all areas
should be seeing snow. As mentioned, departure times still up in the
air as the GFS moves this system through quicker while the ECMWF is
slower. It is worth noting that the ECMWF continues to have slightly
higher QPF values since it is slower.

They go on to say they expect around a half inch.  I think that might be ultra conservative considering how cold it will be and the ratios involved.  I remember during a similar Arctic outbreak in 2014, a half inch turned into almost 3 inches.  It was a very dry, fluffy snow, and the roads here and in Knoxville were a complete mess.  It was heavy enough to stick, and was immediately compacted into a sheet of ice by cars driving over it.   
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 03:59:23 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline JHart

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1951 on: January 13, 2018, 04:10:56 PM »
I believe we had thunder and lightning during either the sleet or freezing rain. I was also young... only 9

Lol ... I was 33.  I'll just go put my teeth in a jar now.   :D
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Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1952 on: January 13, 2018, 04:40:15 PM »
Lol ... I was 33.  I'll just go put my teeth in a jar now.   :D

I was living in Ms at the time and there were thunderstorms with freezing rain during that event down there. I was 27 at the time and yes I was doing a lot of the things Iíve talked about in chat back then


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1953 on: January 13, 2018, 04:51:32 PM »
We have lots of frequent posters starting with "D" -

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline spanarkle08

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1954 on: January 13, 2018, 05:11:03 PM »
What kind of direction for this Monday storm? NW TN get any?

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1955 on: January 13, 2018, 07:50:35 PM »
Yeah. Clippers normally run from nw to se ..
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1956 on: January 13, 2018, 07:54:13 PM »
Here was the 12z euro control



Have a feeling even the gfs has been consistent with having this feature, itís about to go drier due to its over progressive bias. We are getting late in the game for an about face from the euro, but itís possible

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1957 on: January 13, 2018, 08:06:43 PM »
Here was the 12z euro control



Have a feeling even the gfs has been consistent with having this feature, itís about to go drier due to its over progressive bias. We are getting late in the game for an about face from the euro, but itís possible
true. Gfs has the northern stream to dominate
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1958 on: January 13, 2018, 10:44:06 PM »
This is new. West Tennessee gets a mini bomb Friday. ::rofl::


Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1959 on: January 13, 2018, 11:03:47 PM »
Here was the 12z euro control



Have a feeling even the gfs has been consistent with having this feature, itís about to go drier due to its over progressive bias. We are getting late in the game for an about face from the euro, but itís possible

I thought the euro control lead the pack with this last storm...the euro has been consistent... I think I'll ride the euro until we get into the RGEM and HRRR range.

Post Merge: January 14, 2018, 12:30:16 AM


Oz euro. Pretty dang consistent

Yea, it runs from Dallas to southern half of Arkansas into W. Tn. Memphis is in snow from hour 54 to 63.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 12:30:16 AM by Clint, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1960 on: January 14, 2018, 01:36:37 AM »
The short wave coming down that's in Kansas now looks healthy. I checked a few of their grids and they are reporting snow with none in the forecast for the night.  Perhaps we will get a surprise later today (Sunday) as it comes through.  Certainly looks good on radar now.

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Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1961 on: January 14, 2018, 01:50:18 AM »
The short wave coming down that's in Kansas now looks healthy. I checked a few of their grids and they are reporting snow with none in the forecast for the night.  Perhaps we will get a surprise later today (Sunday) as it comes through.  Certainly looks good on radar now.

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I agree the radar looks good... However, MEG did mention it in their afternoon AFD... here's a snippet:
Quote
Skies will initially be clear but we should begin to see an
increase in clouds mainly overnight into the day Sunday as a
shortwave trough is expected to move across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Short term model soundings indicate there may
be a slight potential for some flurries or light snow but little
if any accumulation at this time.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1962 on: January 14, 2018, 09:48:55 AM »
Interesting discussion by Joe Bastardi on his Saturday summary.  MJO going into a warmer phase 4 & 5, and after a cold week this week, we warm this weekend and thaw for the rest of the month.  He believes winter returns in February, though, and may linger into early Spring. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1963 on: January 14, 2018, 10:56:44 AM »
MEG added the snow shower potential back for today.  Don't be surprised if you see some snow falling today in the west from this little short wave.
Looking at the radar, I don't see how some people do not get some decent snow showers today.

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« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 11:07:05 AM by bugalou »

Offline MrWonderful84

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1964 on: January 14, 2018, 11:06:10 AM »
I think Bastardi may want to rethink that about the thaw. AO/NOA going negative soon. OHX spoke of this and they show artic cold coming back next week after a short warm up. The AO/NOA going negative changes that thaw potential.

 

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