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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 268572 times)

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Offline NashRugger

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1890 on: January 12, 2018, 07:26:49 PM »
Should Spring Hill have more luck with that one?
Far too soon to enough talk specifics like that.

That said, there's a good consensus of this literally riding I-20 from Dallas to Atlanta and then head off the Carolinas and bomb out and rake the Eastern Seaboard potentially.

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1891 on: January 12, 2018, 10:16:51 PM »
Nice looking Alberta clipper 84 hours out... ::snowman::


Offline Curt

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Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1892 on: January 12, 2018, 10:33:56 PM »
Nice looking Alberta clipper 84 hours out... ::snowman::



Gfs gonna hold serve for a decent light powder event. Good ratios and you have a decent event with bitter cold temps- maybe a tap of gulf moisture

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1893 on: January 12, 2018, 11:30:06 PM »
Nice looking Alberta clipper 84 hours out... ::snowman::


That's a stout Clipper.  I like.  Bring the snow on snow action.

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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1894 on: January 13, 2018, 12:27:21 AM »
Ho Ho Ho , 00Z Euro is stronger with the Monday night system. Talk about it in the morning but QPF is steadily increasing. 24 hours snowfall totals would meet, get close to warning criteria in some areas , just saying. Lets wait to see what 12Z runs do in the morning, but the globals are starts to really show at least a advisory event.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 12:39:38 AM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1895 on: January 13, 2018, 12:40:01 AM »
Euro at 81 hrs...


Offline Tamlin

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1896 on: January 13, 2018, 12:48:19 AM »
0z Euro QPF text data for Monday night.

LZK: 0.28
JBR: 0.14
DYR: 0.15
MEM: 0.19
BNA: 0.19
CHA: 0.14
TYS: 0.20

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1897 on: January 13, 2018, 04:45:08 AM »
Quote
Looking ahead, there will be a warmup late week as the upper air
pattern becomes less amplified and more wavy. Temps could push
toward 60 next Saturday, before crashing down again with the next
cold shot a day or 2 later. Indices such as the Arctic
Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are trending downward
for late January, indicating at least the potential for continuing
cold air outbreaks. It looks like we could have a lot of winter
to deal with yet.

-OHX


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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1898 on: January 13, 2018, 04:50:21 AM »
This would be a great event for all given the high ratios we will be dealing with on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

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Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1899 on: January 13, 2018, 05:47:28 AM »
OHX on the next system:
Quote
Snow pops will be increased to likely for most of the
area as the major operational models are in good agreement
indicating almost all snow for precip type, with potential
accumulations in the one half to 2 inch range.
 


Post Merge: January 13, 2018, 05:56:24 AM
HUN with an outstanding disco this am:
Quote
Precip will fall as snow, given
the entire vertical column will be below freezing by the onset of
any precip. Although confidence is still on the lower side, the
consistency among the various global models does point to slightly
higher confidence than what we would normally have for a system in
the extended period......there are a couple of things with this set-up that are worth
mentioning. First, the synoptic forcing will be very strong due to
the upper trough deepening
as it moves east. Although the GFS is a
little flatter with the trough, there would still be a pretty good
amount of lift in place. Secondly, the atmosphere will be dry ahead
of the front, but due to the forcing just mentioned, the vertical
column will likely become completely saturated up to around 250 mb.
It`s already been mentioned that temperatures through the vertical
column will be below 0, so intensity could be moderate at times
. And
lastly, for this forecast update anyway, surface temperatures will be
in the lower 20s to start the day and won`t warm up much if the snow
is realized. Daytime highs look to max out in the mid to upper 20s.
So snow ratios would be higher than what we normally see and those
few hundreths of an inch of QPF could translate to higher snowfall
amounts.
Overall, not looking at amounts over 1 inch, but anything
that falls will stick to every surface. 

« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 06:05:38 AM by Coach B »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1900 on: January 13, 2018, 06:55:06 AM »
-OHX


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I have a feeling we've yet to see the best this winter has to offer. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1901 on: January 13, 2018, 07:02:56 AM »
0z Euro QPF text data for Monday night.

LZK: 0.28
JBR: 0.14
DYR: 0.15
MEM: 0.19
BNA: 0.19
CHA: 0.14
TYS: 0.20
A ways to go with this one but that would an awesome event with ratios that are expected.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1902 on: January 13, 2018, 07:38:49 AM »
A ways to go with this one but that would an awesome event with ratios that are expected.

0z Euro QPF text data for Monday night.

LZK: 0.28
JBR: 0.14
DYR: 0.15
MEM: 0.19
BNA: 0.19
CHA: 0.14
TYS: 0.20

MRX's discussion downplays it for east TN.  While that is no surprise, I don't understand how they can say wetter ECMWF gives the valley less than an inch.  .20 for TYS would be near 2-3 inches given the ratios.   ::shrug::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1903 on: January 13, 2018, 08:18:00 AM »
MEg   seems to pretty much going with 1 to 2 inches snow monday night into tuesday morning... saying if the euro is correct... even slightly more than that.. i already have right at 5 inches at my house and still cant get out of my steep drive ::doh:: i may pass this along to those who missed out yesterdays storm...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1904 on: January 13, 2018, 08:38:32 AM »
A ways to go with this one but that would an awesome event with ratios that are expected.
Dyer did you see any data for ckv on the euro. I'm guessing it was somewhere around dyersburg and Nashville estimates. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 08:47:02 AM by Clarksville Snowman »

 

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