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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 59644 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #330 on: December 07, 2017, 04:44:18 PM »
They have earned it  :D

Soon, it will be our turn. East TN is a due a big snowfall.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #331 on: December 07, 2017, 04:49:15 PM »
2 inches of snow forecast for Hattiesburg, MS.  I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a grocery store there tonight!!   ::panic::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #332 on: December 07, 2017, 04:51:43 PM »
18Z NAM snowfall has shifted north to Chatt!

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #333 on: December 07, 2017, 05:05:57 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
524 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest suite of model guidance continues to shift further to
the northwest with the precipitation shield on Friday. The
previous forecast was already near advisory conditions for Clay
and Cherokee counties in Southwest North Carolina, therefore,
decided to go ahead with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two
counties. If the latest model trends continue with the 00z run,
will need to expand the advisory further to the north and west.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #334 on: December 07, 2017, 05:07:56 PM »
NAM has been dead on since early this week. GFS has been lagging behind and just now picked up on this forecast. If the NAM continues to trend northward, the mountains in East TN will get a huge snow event. Even Chattanooga and Knoxville could pick up some snow.

But I would hate for it to shift north and for this event to be a bust for the Deep South.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #335 on: December 07, 2017, 05:18:35 PM »
The latest run of the GFS (18Z) has also shifted the precipitation field northwest, and now puts significant amounts making it just over the mountains.   ::pondering::

(Significant meaning measurable)
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 05:36:45 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Clay

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #336 on: December 07, 2017, 05:42:16 PM »
2 inches of snow forecast for Hattiesburg, MS.  I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a grocery store there tonight!!   ::panic::
Snow along the MS Gulf Coast is one thing, but flakes could fly all the way down to Corpus and Galveston. Early December? Quite exceptional. I'm fine chalking up an L this early in the season to witness that. Wow.  ::cold::

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #337 on: December 07, 2017, 05:55:20 PM »
Looking at  the HRR, I think the area from north of Lake Ponchartrain to Merdian Ms look to get best bang for their buck with the transition happening at the perfect time 9pm to 8am. The lack of sunlight might actually help with temps nearing freezing as well as accumulation. Most moves into the north GA area with prime heating and temps above freezing.

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #338 on: December 07, 2017, 06:14:55 PM »
Looking at  the HRR, I think the area from north of Lake Ponchartrain to Merdian Ms look to get best bang for their buck with the transition happening at the perfect time 9pm to 8am. The lack of sunlight might actually help with temps nearing freezing as well as accumulation. Most moves into the north GA area with prime heating and temps above freezing.

That's incredible... I have relatives that live in Covington La, north of Lake Pontchartrain and I don't recall they ever receiving any snow in over 50 years.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #339 on: December 07, 2017, 06:18:23 PM »
That's incredible... I have relatives that live in Covington La, north of Lake Pontchartrain and I don't recall they ever receiving any snow in over 50 years.

Take a look back to December 11, 2008.  Very similar pattern led to 6-9 inches of snow from Baton Rouge to SW Mississippi. It came northeastward, but wasn’t near as strong due to radiational effects of the sun melting away most appreciable accumulation.

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #340 on: December 07, 2017, 06:53:20 PM »
Take a look back to December 11, 2008.  Very similar pattern led to 6-9 inches of snow from Baton Rouge to SW Mississippi. It came northeastward, but wasn’t near as strong due to radiational effects of the sun melting away most appreciable accumulation.

Thanks Curt! I didn't realize this event happened. Here's the youtube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2d8-a_ns0

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #341 on: December 07, 2017, 07:12:12 PM »
I see we are getting winter started right here in Memphis with WSW in Southern MS already. Maybe next week the I-44 corridor will get a blizzard. :D

Only (mostly) kidding of course, I'm glad its just time to start chasing winter weather.

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #342 on: December 07, 2017, 07:27:36 PM »
Snow is flying at Alamo.  Areas just north and west of San Antonio are getting enough snow to have a snowball fight according to some friends that I have in the area.

This is the first snow in this area since 2010 and some parts of South TX may get their first measurable snow since 2004. 

Post Merge: December 07, 2017, 07:52:17 PM
2-3 inch snowfall reports in northern San Antonio metro and over towards the south Austin area.   
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 07:52:17 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #343 on: December 07, 2017, 08:39:50 PM »
Current HRRR looking good for at least far east TN to see some flakes flying tomorrow.  Maybe a dusting for the foothills?  Guess we'll see where the morning models waffle. Ha. Waffles for breakfast.  Sounds good to me. . .
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #344 on: December 07, 2017, 09:55:41 PM »
Its the GEFS, but that NW trend!


Or how about NAM 3k, NW trend!


Just a little more so the East Tn Valley can get some decent action!


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