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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 31340 times)

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #180 on: November 04, 2017, 02:34:30 PM »
Just remember that there is no such science behind "we are due". 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #181 on: November 04, 2017, 03:43:25 PM »
No, there isn't, but weather patterns do repeat in some form or fashion over time.  That's why so many forecasters use "analogs" to come up with forecasts.  Whatever happened before, will happen again. It may not be a carbon copy of a past weather event, but the overall weather pattern can be similar. 
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 03:49:23 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #182 on: November 05, 2017, 12:30:45 AM »
Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  ::shaking_finger::"

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

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Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM
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« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM by schneitzeit, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #183 on: November 05, 2017, 05:17:26 AM »
Alright y'all. I drafted my predictions for the contiguous U.S. in an MS Paint doc. All comments, questions and criticism are welcomed.

In terms of snowfall, here are my predictions. They're a little pessimistic, as I think much of this winter will be too warm for us to cash in on major events. I think we will too often be caught on the warm side of major systems. Mother Nature is like... "Oh, there's some moisture in Tennessee? Here, why don't I just make it real warm. No snow for you!  ::shaking_finger::"

Tennessee

Clarksville: 10.0"
Tri-Cities: 9.0"
Nashville: 6.5"
Knoxville: 5.0"
Jackson: 4.0"
Chattanooga: 3.0"
Memphis: 2.5"

North Carolina

Asheville: 12.0"
Winston-Salem: 6.0"
Charlotte: 4.5"
Raleigh: 4.0"
Wilmington: Trace

Kentucky

Louisville: 21.0"
Lexington: 19.5"
Paducah: 13.0"
Bowling Green: 11.5"

Deep South

Little Rock: 3.5"
Atlanta: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1.0"
Columbia, SC: 0.5"
Jackson, MS: Trace

Midwest

Cleveland: 67.0"
Minneapolis: 55.0"
Milwaukee: 44.5"
Chicago: 42.0"
Detroit: 36.0"
Des Moines: 34.0"
Columbus, OH: 31.5"
Kansas City: 31.0"
Indianapolis: 27.5"
Cincinnati: 24.0"
St. Louis: 22.0"

Northeast

Buffalo: 85.0"
Boston: 46.0"
Hartford: 37.0"
New York City: 34.5"
Pittsburgh: 30.0"
Philadelphia: 25.5"
Washington: 16.0"

(Attachment Link) :
Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 01:39:47 AM
(Attachment Link)
nice job there... may be still tad high on the snowfall... but well done

Post Merge: November 05, 2017, 05:38:28 AM
i killed  3 big red wasp yesterday after work... flying around my work shop... in november?   maybe they know something... ;)
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 05:38:28 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #184 on: November 07, 2017, 10:21:31 PM »
https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #185 on: November 07, 2017, 10:34:06 PM »
I like this uncertainty. I miss the thrill of following a winter storm. If we're lucky, maybe one month from now we'll have something to watch for  ::popcorn::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #186 on: November 08, 2017, 01:53:23 PM »
https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

More updates and this could put my December forecast at risk if it verifies.  The Greenland Block if it verifies will help lock the cold air on our side of the world, which we did not have at all for the last several winters.   

The -PNA may focus the intense cold over the Northern Plains/Rockies, which is one of the reasons I had the worst of the cold over to the northwest of us.  If the PNA was to go + or even neutral, and the -QBO could force a Greenland Block and the -NAO/-AO then we are going to have a rockin time.

Interesting that both the NAO and AO could be heading deep into negative territory soon.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #187 on: November 08, 2017, 02:54:47 PM »
Bring on a blockbuster winter.  ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #188 on: November 08, 2017, 03:02:47 PM »
So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.

Offline EastTNWX

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #189 on: November 13, 2017, 04:57:55 PM »
So, so excited. In my opinion, nothing beats a December snowfall. We haven't had one in Tennessee since 2010.

Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #190 on: November 14, 2017, 07:34:52 AM »
Dec 21 2016 the Knoxville area received between a trace and 0.5" of snow, NWFS showers in cold air produced some accumulations for most in the area.  That said I would also love a REAL snow this December.  It looks like something is trying to brew around Thanksgiving...something to watch!

Forecasts continue to show the NAO/AO going toward some of the lowest readings in a long time around the Thanksgiving timeframe.  PNA is forecast to go from negative to neutral.  All this *could* add up to something interesting around Turkey Time.  Even if it doesn't stick, snow falling on Thanksgiving is welcome and festive.  It will give me a reason to avoid a nap after the feast. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #191 on: November 14, 2017, 09:14:40 AM »
Euro showing a huge ridge right up west central us, serious cold looks to stay over Alaska.

Offline cleTNwx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #192 on: November 14, 2017, 01:30:47 PM »
Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month? 

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #193 on: November 14, 2017, 01:42:35 PM »
Too soon to start crossing fingers concerning the GFS look around the 27th of this month?

Too soon when the Euro doesn't agree with the pattern look of the GFS.

Offline Hank W

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #194 on: November 15, 2017, 11:49:35 AM »
12z GFS has the first big fantasy storm of the season around hour 252. Don't think it's anything to get excited over with zero consistency, but at least it is that time of year!

 

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