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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 59731 times)

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Online Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #90 on: October 11, 2017, 08:13:10 AM »
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #91 on: October 11, 2017, 09:18:55 AM »
Normally the OH and TN valleys are the battleground zone for winter mischief. Hopefully we get more cold air intrustions this time around!

I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::



Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #92 on: October 11, 2017, 10:51:51 AM »
I'm normally a peaceful dude, but this is one war I'm pullin' for!!   ::evillaugh::



Sorry, I'm a little buzzed from the Nyquil.  Dang cold!   ;)

Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)
« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 10:56:35 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #93 on: October 11, 2017, 11:15:19 AM »
After studying Curt's graphs further, it appears the Ohio and TN Valleys are in the battle zone between the colder north and the mild southeast with an east based La Nina.  One benefit of that will be plenty of precipitation, unlike the west-based La Nina that would probably bring a dry winter (like 2007), so that's a good thing.  As far as winter weather goes, I'd say Kentucky, and parts of northern and far western Tennessee would be in the best position, but this set-up screams "ICE" to me with many over-running events.  If that's they case, I hope it stays to our north.  I'll take plain-Jane rain over ice any day.

Thanks again for posting the good reads for the upcoming winter possibilities, Curt.  I've been doing some reading up on the QBO, AMO, and some of the lesser know acronyms out there.  It gave me something to do while at home recovering from a wicked cold.  Nothing on TV but more political ::poo::   ;D
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #94 on: October 11, 2017, 11:24:29 AM »
Whoever made that map could have at least used realistic looking frontal boundaries (just sort of slapped them on there).  ;)

That would be one weird looking weather map. A backwards bulging cold front (which would seem to imply a westward movement), with a large warm front coming out of the Rockies, stretching from Canada to nearly Mexico seem to be heading toward each other.

Something like this might happen if the earth fell off its axis... or something.  8)

LOL!  I promise, even with my Nyquil, I didn't make that map!  ::rofl::  It did appear to be two "battle fronts" going to war, so appropriate, though impossible! haha ;D  Reminds me of my high school days back in study hall.  I usually doodled my time away drawing some mega snow storm...cold front, warm front, and the occluded front of a mature blizzard.  Most people didn't have a clue what I was doodling. lol

Despite the intense cold I'm struggling with, I'm enjoying time on the deck watching the leaves fall all around me.  Very relaxing and peaceful.  Guess it ain't all bad.  Feeling blessed.  ::cough::



« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 11:29:41 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #95 on: October 11, 2017, 06:32:01 PM »
I really think if things fall in place that this could be one of those years where the term north of 40 came from. I agree with the battleground. Question is where will it set up .
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Online BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #96 on: October 11, 2017, 06:55:09 PM »
That will mean many late nights and early mornings on this forum sweating it out. OH YEAH BRING IT ON!!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #97 on: October 12, 2017, 10:11:14 AM »
make a big difference were things set up at... snow storm... ice storm... or even a severe weather event... ::coffee::
I'm fully aware of that.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #98 on: October 12, 2017, 01:15:08 PM »
Another piece of the puzzle is the North Atlantic SST, called the AMO or Atlantic Multidecadanol Oscillation. Iím no expert but the warm phase is associated with warmer eastern winters and vice versa with the colder phase. The colder phases have a marked increase in arctic sea ice- which Iím going to assume increases surface area for arctic air masses. Here a good graphic:

You can trace the long colder and thus snowier winters of the 60ís, 70ís, and 80ís in a cold phase. Weíve been in a warm phase since 1996 - and most models flip it negative over the next 3-5 years. Perhaps thereís part of your answer although there have certainly been severe winters in the warm phase- just not as many as the cold.

Final thought here- one size doesnít fit all. Sometimes it seems one of the players- enso, qbo, pdo, and amo donít work out like we think due to one having prevalence over another. Itís not an exact science- but one we can at least make some assumptions about given past experience.

Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #99 on: October 12, 2017, 01:40:31 PM »
Is there any way to tease out outcomes by differentiating between a warmer than average fall or a cooler than average fall? Looks like this fall is going to be quite warm.

Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #100 on: October 12, 2017, 03:26:07 PM »
I don't know about Autumn as a whole, but I've observed many a cold November be followed up by a cold winter.  Was it in 2013 that we had several cold snaps in November, and even snow around Thanksgiving in the area?  That winter ended up cold ('13-'14).  Sometimes a cold November is followed by a mild December, then a return to cold in January.  That happened in '84-'85.  November was cold, we torched in December, but we all know how that winter turned out.

Just a thought.  I'm sure there are many exceptions, but a cold November can be a prelude for a cold winter.  Of course, we had a very warm November last year, and as we know, winter skipped us altogether. 

EDIT:  I just found this on a NWS site concerning November 2013: 

Quote
ēBelow-average temperatures were present for a majority of the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies. Above-average temperatures were present for the Southwest, as well as Florida. No state had November temperatures ranking among the ten warmest or coolest.

Here is where the quote came from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201311
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Online Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #101 on: October 12, 2017, 03:53:42 PM »
Would be interesting to see if so. Anecdotally, I can remember some cold winters that followed mild falls, and conversely, mild winters that followed colder-than-average falls. I suspect findings might be inconclusive overall though.

Here are a few October/ November temps for analog years- all La Nina Winters which all followed with some significant cold/winter weather at some point.

October 1950
Memphis +5.3
Nashville  +3.9
Knoxville +3.7

November 1950
Memphis -3.8
Nashville -6.5
Knoxville  -3.8

December 1950
Memphis -5.0
Nashville -6.0
Knoxville  -4.6

January 1951
Memphis 3.0
Nashville 1.2
Knoxville 3.2

Feb 1951- above normal despite epic ice and snow storm at beginning and below 0 temps
Memphis 1.1
Nashville 0.1
Knoxville 2.3

October 1984
Memphis +5.5
Nashville  +6.5
Knoxville  +8.1

November 1984
Memphis -0.4
Nashville  -2.5
Knoxville  -2.5

December 1984
Memphis +10.5
Nashville  + 8.6
Knoxville  +6.4

January 1985
Memphis -7.2
Nashville  - 9.3
Knoxville  -8.8

February 1985
Memphis -2.9
Nashville  -3.3
Knoxville  -4.4



October 2010
Memphis +2.5
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +1.2

November 2010
Memphis +1.2
Nashville  +1.2
Knoxville  +2.0

December 2010
Memphis -4.2
Nashville  -6.1
Knoxville  -7.8

January 2011
Memphis -1.0
Nashville  -2.4
Knoxville  -1.6

February 2011
Memphis +2.3
Nashville  +2.4
Knoxville  +4.4


« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 05:17:32 PM by Curt »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #102 on: October 12, 2017, 04:43:14 PM »
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.

Online Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #103 on: October 12, 2017, 05:18:35 PM »
Interesting how both 50 and 84 flipped the pattern from Oct to Nov.

Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #104 on: October 12, 2017, 05:35:09 PM »
Went back and added Dec-Jan-Feb of those years to the stats which shows lots of variability- in some cases Dec 84- Jan 85 was incredibly volatile.

You are very correct.  I lived in southeast KY during that time, and I remember late November into the first few days of December being cold, with several inches of snow in early December.  The rest of December was spring-like with 60's and 70's.  The last week of December, severe storms and flooding rains occurred, and the stormy weather lasted into the New Year.  That bout of heavy rain and severe weather was the turning point toward much colder weather that lasted into February.

Not even counting the epic cold & snow, weather that fall into winter was incredibly volatile.  Wild swings in temperatures, heavy rain, severe storms and flooding occurred in December.  I'll take a winter like that.  I don't mind a torch for a few days if it's followed up by a 30 degree temperature drop and snow.  I remember that happening on more than one occasion that winter.

I found an interesting comment about the '85 cold wave on Wikipedia:
Quote
The Winter 1985 cold wave[1] was a meteorological event, the result of the shifting of the polar vortex further south than is normally seen.[1] Blocked from its normal movement, polar air from the north pushed into nearly every section of the eastern half of the United States and Canada, shattering record lows in a number of areas.[1] The event was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic, a meteorological event known as a Mobile Polar High, a weather process identified by Professor Marcel Leroux.[2]

« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 06:23:28 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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