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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 19852 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #60 on: September 22, 2017, 05:34:22 PM »
I straddle the Old Farmer's Almanac and Accuweather for winter forecasts. Very accurate method!

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #61 on: September 23, 2017, 03:00:25 PM »
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La Niņa winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.

Offline Jilly

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #62 on: September 25, 2017, 11:05:19 AM »
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/

The wooly worms I've seen here lately have been mostly black.  ::cold::
WA4CZD

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #63 on: September 25, 2017, 11:32:02 AM »
If you have weatherbell premium Joe D'Aleo has a great analog video for the upcoming winter. He compared depths and  pacific sea basin temps for La Niņa winters that look most similar as of September as a guide- and we know that don't always work out perfectly. The 2 he felt were most similar to our upcoming winter were 2007-08 and 1995-96. Both had quite a bit of cold weather and winter storm opportunities- albeit the only real winter storm we had here in 2008 was in March. Nonetheless - interesting video.
I take a winter 2007 2008 re do again ... if possible
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #64 on: September 26, 2017, 08:57:11 AM »
The AO is in moderately negative territory, while we have record heat.  Hope it revisits negative land again this winter when we need it. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #65 on: September 26, 2017, 06:18:27 PM »
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #66 on: September 26, 2017, 07:47:06 PM »
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

My dad recalls the temperature dropping to -27 degrees Fahrenheit in Knoxville in January 1985. He said Knoxville recorded one of the coldest temperatures in the continental United States that day. As for me, I'm 20, so I cannot confirm that being true or not  ::shrug::

Offline skillsweather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #67 on: September 26, 2017, 08:44:51 PM »
What i like about weather (but sometimes it also frustrates me) is that we truely dont ever know whats going to happen. We have very educated guess's and statistics to point us in directions of what might and most likely will happen but it can always change in a blink of an eye just by one small detail changing. And with longer ranged forecast like a season over that even becomes more difficult and one small change in a detail can completely change the forecast. It seems we get what we can get and the most fun (for me anyways) is following the systems when they are happening because then the margin of error is much smaller and we know its happening (but even then one detail can change it all). It seems like every winter we always have at least one storm to follow that either gives some of us a decent hit or all of us or comes in as a major hit and the temp turns out to be to warm or to much dry air. So i think its safe to say no matter what the models or long range forecasters say, that we will at least have one decent storm to at least track. Im looking forward to it for sure!
867-5309

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #68 on: September 26, 2017, 11:16:19 PM »
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::

I think Joe Bastardi hacked Bruce's account.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #69 on: September 27, 2017, 12:30:14 AM »
i know its very very early... but thus far... winter 1984-1985 ... this is how it all started... we torch pretty much like were doing till end december... then rest is history... ::cold:: looking long range stuff... after this cool down back to torch again... so lets hope we do torch like we did that winter... cause if you like winter... ones that are old enough to remember that winter... your are in for one h--l of a ride ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::fingerscrossed::
I remember it like it was yesterday, I long for a repeat in my lifetime. Only rivals to 85 in my lifetime are 76 and 78. My first snow I ever remember well is 69, it fell on Christmas eve and we received 10 inches in Clarksville. I think that snow is what hooked me. I heard many good stories of winters in the 60's but I was too young to really remember much about them. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #70 on: September 27, 2017, 06:19:14 AM »
If memory serves, '84 had some pretty good cold snaps in November into the first week of December, when accumulating snow fell in Kentucky.  After that, the eastern U.S. torched until the first week of January '85, when the Arctic Express rolled back into town and stayed in earnest until mid-February.  That was the best 6 weeks of pure Winter Wonderland any snow lovin' weather geek could experience this far south.

Post Merge: September 27, 2017, 09:05:08 AM
Despite the record heat in our part of the world, patches of snow cover are starting to show up in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere as cold air makes an appearance in Asia thanks to the -AO. 

« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 09:05:08 AM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #71 on: October 07, 2017, 08:36:41 PM »
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.
Sure-  I'm going with 46" for seasonal snowfall in Memphis

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Curt

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Winter 2017-18
« Reply #72 on: October 08, 2017, 11:59:31 AM »
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La Niņa
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La Niņa. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La Niņa winter following an albeit much weaker El Niņo. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 01:12:56 PM by Curt »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #73 on: October 08, 2017, 03:22:41 PM »
What worries me is that the cold spells in the eastern U.S. during the recent "good" winters (09-10, 13-14, 14-15) could just be flukes. While we were colder during those winters, much of the rest of the world was experiencing above normal temperatures.  It appears we were colder only because of the anomalous trough over our area caused by a warm pool of water off of northwestern North America for much of that time.  Is that the only way we can have a "normal" winter anymore? 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #74 on: October 08, 2017, 09:23:20 PM »
here's what we know so far-

ENSO= most likely weak La Niņa
QBO= moderately negative - complete change from last winters positive
Solar cycle- low

I think this combo promotes a highly variable winter here. The long range models center the coldest air in the northern plains- typical of La Niņa. In combination with the moderately negative QBO should produce periods of northern blocking- which we couldn't buy the last 2 winters. I think we could actually see some potentially bitter cold periods followed by moderating periods in between- thus what I think will be a variable winter. If you add in a major SSW like January 1985- all bets are off for more prolonged cold. I think we see 2-3 winter threats this go around - perhaps more on the icy side.

Winter 1950-51 was very similar as far as a second La Niņa winter following an albeit much weaker El Niņo. Overall the winter was slightly above normal but had 2 major winter storms for Tennessee(and one minor). One was the great Appalachian November snow storm which blanketed the entire state with snow in late November followed by record cold. It remained cold into early December with one more sleet and snow event before warming back up all the way thorough January. In fact it was into the 60's and 70's for much of January before one of the most epic winter storms on state history occurred in late January and early February. An arctic air mass bled south and stalled over the apps- leaving major amounts of sleet and snow mostly over west and middle TN. Memphis and Nashville went down below -10 to end the event. There was one more cold period in mid march with 2 more snows statewide- one producing 7 inches at Nashville.

And keep in mind- October and early November 1950 torched before the variability started.

So all that in mind- we could end up normal or even above normal temps with quite a bit of variability in between.

Nice write up Curt, enjoyed the read.  ::guitar::

 

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